Predictions for Mets vs. Nationals: Score Projection, Over/Under Pick & Odds – July 4

Thursday’s contest between the Washington Nationals (40-46) and New York Mets (42-42) squaring off at Nationals Park has a projected final score of 5-4 (according to our computer prediction) in favor of the Nationals, so expect a tight matchup. The game will begin at 11:05 AM ET on July 4.

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Mets vs. Nationals Matchup Info

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Mets vs. Nationals Predictions

  • Score Prediction: Nationals 5, Mets 4
  • Total Prediction: Under 9 runs

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Mets vs. Nationals Betting Lines

Mets vs Nationals Betting Information
Favorite Favorite Moneyline Underdog Moneyline Total Over Total Odds Under Total Odds
Mets -115 -105 9 -118 -102

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Mets Betting Insights

  • New York has been the favorite in 44 games this season, and has come away with the win 23 times (52.3%) in those contests.
  • The Mets have a win-loss record of 20-20 when favored by -115 or better by oddsmakers this year.
  • New York’s games have gone over the total in 45 of 84 opportunities.
  • The Mets were the moneyline favorite for nine of their past 15 games, and they finished 4-5 in those matchups.
  • Over its past 15 matchups (all had set totals), New York combined with its opponents to go over the run total 11 times.

Nationals Betting Insights

  • Washington has a 32-41 record in games it was the underdog on the moneyline (winning 43.8% of those games).
  • The Nationals have a 32-39 record (winning 45.1% of their games) when playing as a moneyline underdog of -105 or longer.
  • Washington has had an over/under set by oddsmakers 86 times, and it has combined with opponents to go over the total in 40 of those games (40-41-5).
  • In 10 games as underdogs in their past 15 matchups, the Nationals had a record of 3-7.
  • When it comes to hitting the over, Washington and its opponents are 8-6-1 in its past 15 games with a total.

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Mets vs. Nationals Probable Pitchers

Mets’ Starting Pitcher: José Quintana

  • The 35-year-old has pitched to a 4.57 ERA this season with 7.1 strikeouts per nine innings compared to 3.2 walks per nine across 16 games.
  • Jose Quintana’s team has won 66.7% of his starts when they are favored on the moneyline (4-2).
  • Quintana’s team has a 9-7 record in his starts this season.
  • Out of Quintana’s 16 starts with a total this season, six have hit the over.

Nationals’ Starting Pitcher: Jake Irvin

  • The 27-year-old has an ERA of 3.03, with 7.9 strikeouts per nine innings in 17 games this season. Opponents are hitting .224 against him.
  • The Nationals have a 6-9 record in Irvin’s 15 starts this season when they were the moneyline underdog.
  • Irvin’s team has a 7-10 record in his 17 starts.
  • Irvin’s starts went over the run total seven times in 17 games with a set total this season.

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Mets’ 2024 Performance

Split Record
Overall 42-42
Home 21-25
Road 21-17
One-Run Games 16-9
Scoring 5+ Runs 29-14

Nationals’ 2024 Performance

Split Record
Overall 40-46
Home 18-21
Road 22-25
One-Run Games 7-12
Scoring 5+ Runs 27-11

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