Navy Vs. Army Betting Odds, Picks, Predictions (12/10/22)

Another regular season has come and gone and now we get the most beautiful game of the year this Saturday as the Navy Midshipmen take on the Army Black Knights. Not only because it fills the void of college football as we transition from conference championships to bowl season, but because we get to see the troops put on a masterful triple option matchup.

Navy Vs. Army Odds

As for who is going to come out on top? Oddsmakers and bettors are split on this one as oddsmakers initially set the line in Army’s favor at -2.5 while bettors have flipped the script with Navy currently being the new favorite. This comes as a surprise as Navy took a massive blow with the loss of quarterback Tai Lavatai who suffered a season ending injury.

As for the total, it’s social media’s favorite wager of the year as the total under has taken over the media by storm. Hitting at an absurd rate of 16 unders straight, oddsmakers had no choice but to set it as low as it has ever been with the opening number hitting 33. Bettors have been split, barely nudging the total as it stands.

Navy Vs. Army Prediction & Pick

The Pick: Over 33

Sometimes when everyone zigs, you have to zag. Not that I’m purposely fading the crowd or trend, but because this number is absurdly low. While I am fully aware that this total has gone under 16 years in a row, it must be noted that the over would be 9-7 if every game was set at 33. For reference, this game was once set at 64.5 back in 2007.

A consistent theme to the under hitting has been each other’s familiarity to the triple option offense. Both running the same scheme and both having tremendous experience in limiting each other’s offensive production. The difference this time around? They both are running at an elite level behind fantastic quarterback play.

Army for instance has averaged roughly 30 points per game this season thanks in large part to a dominant run game. Quarterback Tyheir Tyler has been instrumental running the offense, leading the team in rushing with 601 yards and touchdowns at an average of five yards per rush.

Their efficient run game has equated to top-25 ranks in both Off Rush Success Rate and Off Rush Explosiveness. Even when very limited to the pass, they have proven to lull opposing secondaries and been able to throw over them for explosive connections. Even with just 16 attempts, Tyheir has connected on 50% of his attempts for 301 yards and two touchdowns.

As for the Navy offense, they took on a slight change in identity this season when Tai Lavatai was under center. Proving to have a capable arm to implement a passing game, he unleashed a lethal Navy offense. Sadly, knocked out for the season, Navy has resorted back to a run heavy approach with Daba Fofana leading the backfield.

Navy Vs. Army Key Matchups

Can Daba Fofana continue to dominate against a defense familiar with the triple option?

Daba Fofana vs Army rush defense

The loss of Tai Lavatai couldn’t have come at a worse time as the Navy offense lost their ability to somewhat be a dual threat. This has shifted their scheme to be more geared towards their bread and butter, running the ball with Fofana rushing for over 100 yards each in his last two outings.

While familiar with the triple option, Fofana may see success once again as Army is still brutally bad at limiting the run game. The Army defense currently ranks 125th in Def Rush Success Rate and near dead last in Def Havoc.

Finishing Drives will be the key metric to watch as Navy’s offensive Finishing Drives rank is neck and neck with Army’s defensive ability to stop it. While Lavatai’s dual threat ability will be sorely missed past the 40, Fofana should have no issue exploiting Army’s weak defensive coverage.

Verdict

With Army fielding one of their better offenses in years past, and expected to have trouble stopping Fofana, I am betting that the streak comes to an end and that this game goes over 33 points. Play the over up to 35.