NBA Contenders With the Best Chance of Winning a Title

As you may know, many NBA executives and owners, as well as commissioner Adam Silver have been working around the clock on implementing a new playoff system. Many of the ideas seem to be centered around a play-in tournament for teams looking on the outside-in and reseeding the playoffs 1 through 16 regardless of the conference. The idea seems to be including the best 16 teams in the NBA rather than the traditional eight teams from each conference. This should make the playoffs more exciting, and even as the best teams will be included in the playoffs.


As we await a decision on the format, there seems to be a few teams that could contend for the NBA title this season. In my opinion, the best way to separate each contender is a tier system, which generally only has about 3 or 4 teams who are contenders. For this season, I will give my opinion on six teams who I feel can contend for the Larry O’Brien trophy.

Tier 1

1. Los Angeles Lakers

49-14 .778


Many experts have put the Bucks at the number one slot, but I have the Lakers here because of Anthony Davis and LeBron James. Currently, the Lakers share the best odds at winning the finals with the Bucks, sitting at +250 each. I only have the Lakers and Clippers above the Bucks due to star power and playoff experience and success. The Lakers, more than anyone, should also benefit from a prolonged layoff due to the coronavirus pandemic as both of their stars have had plenty of time to rest and recover. The Lakers currently sit atop the Western Conference with a 49-14 record. They rank 4th in offensive rating (112.6) and 3rd in defensive rating (105.5). The Lakers have also compiled the second-best point differential (+7.4), only trailing the Milwaukee Bucks.

In the waning weeks of the NBA season, LeBron looked like the NBA’s best player in a week where the Lakers topped the 76ers, Bucks, and Clippers. If the Lakers finish the season with the top seed in the Western Conference, they seem to have an easier path to the finals than the Clippers. Based on history, it seems every time I doubt LeBron James, he seems to defy his age and put on a spectacular display in the playoffs. With that being said, James may run into the defensive standouts of Kawhi Leonard and Paul George or the Greek Freak in the NBA Finals, but he still finds a way to win this time as he has the talent and team around him to do so.



2. Los Angeles Clippers

44-20 .688


Although Vegas currently has the Clippers (+333) with the 3rd best odd to win the Finals I see them as a top-two team in the NBA. If healthy, I see the Clippers challenging the Lakers for as the best team in the NBA. That’s a big if. Due to injuries, the Clippers have rarely seen the court together when all of their best players have been healthy. They boast arguably the best two-way wing combo in Kawhi Leonard and Paul George. We all saw what Kawhi was capable of in the playoffs last year, a postseason in which he carried the Toronto Raptors to their first-ever championship. Although plagued by shoulder injuries in last year’s playoffs, Paul George was a top-3 MVP candidate during last year’s campaign.

The Clippers also possess one of the deepest benches in the NBA, headlined by Montrezl Harrell and Lou Williams. The Clippers rank 3rd in offensive rating (112.9) and 5th in defensive rating (106.6). They also hold their opponents to around 109.7 PPG while maintaining a 6.5-point differential that ranks 2nd in the Western Conference. While the Clippers lack a ton of scoring in their starting lineup besides Leonard and George, they have plenty of firepower off the bench. If both Clipper stars reach the playoffs full strength, they should have more than enough to make the finals. The Clips also have a great coaching staff in Doc Rivers, Sam Cassell, and Tyron Lue. Both players and coaches have plenty of playoff experience and success on their resumes, and if the Clippers can maintain their health and build chemistry quickly, they should be in line for a title run.



3. Milwaukee Bucks

53-12 .815


The last team in my tier one of championship contenders is the Milwaukee Bucks. Although Vegas has given the Bucks the second-best odds to win it all behind the Lakers (+250), I have them ranked third on my list. As expected, a ton of credit should be given to MVP front-runner Giannis Antetokounmpo, and rightfully so. Not only has the Buck’s forward upped his scoring and rebounding this season, but he has done so by playing a full three fewer minutes per game this season than he did last season. The Greek Freak has also made a career-high 30.6% of his three-point attempt. It’s still a low number, but he has improved his three-point shot each season.

Despite Giannis’ glaring shooting flaws, he’s become even more efficient in the paint and is a fine presence on the defensive end. The big question mark I have with the Bucks is Giannis’ supporting cast, particularly Khris Middleton. Last year we saw Middleton fade in the playoffs, where he averaged only 16.9 PPG at a 41% clip. If Middleton posts a stat-line more like he has shown so far through 55 games (21.1/6.2/4.1), it should lighten Antetokounmpo’s load tremendously. If Milwaukee’s supporting cast can do enough to support the Greek Freak, Milwaukee should have no problem making a trip to the NBA Finals.



Tier 2

4. Toronto Raptors

46-18 .719


The defending champs boast one of the league’s most complete teams, headlined by All-Stars Pascal Siakam and Kyle Lowry. The loss of Kawhi Leonard hurts here, but Siakam and other rotation players have perhaps made Toronto a better all-around team than last year. The team isn’t all about Lowry and Siakam, as there are plenty of seasoned veterans on this team with both championship experience and success. The tandem of Marc Gasol and Serge Ibaka should help Toronto shore things up inside against bigger teams like the Lakers and Bucks. We know what Lowry brings to the table with his playmaking, toughness, and defense. The same should be said for Fred VanVleet, who, in my opinion, could start on several other teams in the NBA.

The Raptors also have one of the best young coaches in Nick Nurse who knows what it takes to get to and win a championship. My concerns with the Raptors are if they can develop a consistent third scorer behind Lowry and Siakam and if both of their All-Stars can produce at the level that Kawhi Leonard did for them last postseason. The Raptors could be a potential sleeper in the playoffs, should the season resume, but I don’t see them winning it all unless Lowry and Siakam consistently produce on the offensive end at a high rate.



5. Boston Celtics

43-21 .719


The Celtics have the worst odds of every contender I have at my list, where Vegas gives them a +2000 to win the title. While I don’t see them nearly as good as the top two teams out West, they certainly impose a huge threat to the Bucks and Raptors in the East. The Celtics could surprise people in the playoffs this year if we see the Jayson Tatum we saw after the All-Star break. In the nine games after the NBA’s halfway point, Tatum posted 29.9 PPG, 7.9 REB on 47.2% from the floor. His percentage behind the arc was almost identical at a 46.8% clip. If Tatum continued to produce at the level he was playing at, he might have snuck his way into the MVP conversation. The only asterisk I would put on those games was the absence of Kemba Walker during much of the nine-game stretch.

However, the Celtics possess the second-deepest team in the NBA, in my opinion. Along with Tatum and Walker producing All-Star numbers, they boast two gritty defenders in Marcus Smart and Jaylen Brown. Inside they are anchored by Daniel Theis and Enes Kanter, who have proved to be capable defenders at times as well as veteran wing Gordon Hayward who provides a scoring punch off the bench. The only problems I see with Boston is their ability to defend big men in the paint and the ability to maximize their potential on the offensive end as there are a ton of mouths to feed. If Brad Stevens can replicate the formula that the Celtics had two postseasons ago, they should be in for a deep playoff run.



6. Houston Rockets

40-24 .625


The Rockets are last on this list for a couple of reasons. One is that the sample size of their small-ball lineup has been underwhelming. On offense, Houston is a juggernaut, as they have the second-best offensive rating in the NBA, trailing only the Dallas Mavericks. We saw what head coach Mike D’Antoni’s system could do when they almost beat the Golden State Warriors in the WCF a few seasons ago. If D’Antoni’s system is run to perfection, the Rockets can make a deep run, but perhaps a large part of their success is relayed to how well James Harden performs in the playoffs. We’re used to seeing Harden put up eye-popping numbers in the regular season only to fade during the playoffs. The only difference this year is that he has Russell Westbrook at his disposal rather than Chris Paul.

In my opinion, Westbrook is a much better fit next to Harden than Paul was. What Westbrook makes up for in his lack of consistent shooting is a high motor, competitive edge, and energy. If not for Harden being on the same team, Westbrook would be averaging a triple-double for the third straight season. Westbrook has also benefitted from D’Antoni’s five-out system, in which he led all NBA players in points scored in the paint after the All-Star break. If the Rockets can defend bigger, stronger opponents at the rim and hit their shots at a more consistent rate than before, they may upset a team or two on their way to their finals. The success of this team just depends on how far both Harden and Westbrook will take them.