1
Cade Cunningham has long been lauded as the best prospect in the 2021 class, and he showed plenty in 2020 to maintain that standing. As arguably the best ball-handler and creative scorer in the draft, his offensive skill set should translate to the NBA right away. He shot just 26.4% from the field in two March Madness tournament games, but that doesn’t destroy his stock for me as it’s such a small sample size. He shot 40% from 3 and 84% from the free-throw line last season, and he should be a strong shooter at the next level. His shooting efficiency is even more impressive when you consider that he was constantly double and triple-teamed last season. Cunningham has elite size for the point guard position and should be able to defend 1-3 in the NBA. Perhaps most impressively, Cunningham shows all of the requisite skills to run a high-functioning offense in the NBA as the primary ball-handler. Cunningham scored 106 points in the clutch this past season, the most in college basketball. He’s a top-notch prospect and should still be the #1 pick.
Strengths
• Dribble-drive game, smooth operator
• Great court vision and BBIQ
• Makes up for the lack of elite athleticism with great body control and footwork
• Was the engine of the Oklahoma State offense – they went as he went
• Elite passing mechanics, great anticipation, and touch
• Tremendous pick-and-roll ball-handler
• Great finisher at the rim, uses strength and length to create an angle to finish
• Arguably the craftiest player in this class – a full toolbox of moves
• 7’1” wingspan – positional versatility and defensive presence
• Uses length/strength well on defense
• Off-ball awareness is tremendous
• Able to guard up positions and defend in the paint
Weaknesses
• Lacks elite burst/athleticism, doesn’t blow past defenders
• Lack of quickness limits transition opportunities
• Needs to tighten up his handle and play less loose
• Quiet leader, not a super-charismatic leader like Suggs
• Turns the ball over too much – prone to offensive fouls
Best Landing Spot
Houston Rockets. The Rockets are a rudderless franchise at the moment and need a blue-chip prospect to build around for the future alongside Christian Wood. Cunningham would have the opportunity to pick up a high usage rate right away with the Rockets due to their limited point guard depth, and his versatility would allow him to contribute in a number of ways for a team lacking an identity.
Worst Landing Spot
Cleveland Cavaliers. Collin Sexton and Darius Garland look like the real deal as backcourt prospects for Cleveland, and now they need to support those two with high-upside role players. An offense with Sexton, Garland, and Cunningham sharing touches would get a bit clunky with too many mouths to feed. Cunningham will need the ball in his hands more often than not to succeed, and he wouldn’t get that opportunity with the Cavs.
Draft Range
top 3, probably top 1
NBA Comparison
Luka Doncic. While I typically hate using the Doncic comparison given how dominant the European point guard has been early in his career, it makes some sense here. Luka Doncic isn’t the fastest player, and early detractors criticized him for this. However, Doncic combines phenomenal court vision/awareness, fundamental precision, and stellar shooting from all over the floor to make him an elite player in the NBA. Giving Cunningham that type of baseline may be unfair, but I genuinely believe he has the traits to become a top-level guard in the NBA in short order, just like Doncic did.
Ratings Breakdown
Shooting: 8: A 43.8% shooter at Oklahoma State last season, Cunningham wasn’t the most efficient shooter, but that should improve with more talented teammates in the NBA. His 3-point shooting (40%) and free-throw shooting (84.6%) are among the highest marks in the class.
Passing: 9: The case can be made that Cunningham is the best passer in this class as he’s an expert at controlling the offense. He averaged more turnovers (4.0) than assists (3.5) last year, but his ball-handling and playmaking traits should translate to the NBA. Cunningham controls the floor with ease and is always generating opportunities for his teammates.
Dribbling: 9: Cunningham has a beautiful live dribble and tactfully handles the ball to score in the lane despite a lack of explosiveness on-ball. He can put the ball on a string and should be a reliable playmaker off the dribble in the NBA.
Hustle: 8: Not the most athletic or explosive player in this class, Cunningham doesn’t personify a hustle player in the NBA. However, he’s clearly a hard worker, and he routinely dives to the floor to make plays for the ball on film.
Defense: 9: Cunningham stands 6’7” with a massive 7’1” wingspan that gives him positional versatility on defense. He’s a smart off-ball defender with physicality and strong body control, and there are no concerns about him being a liability on the defensive end in the NBA.
Total rating: 52/60
2
One of the heroes of the March Madness tournament, Jalen Suggs, led Gonzaga to a near-perfect season and hit the shot of the tournament, a buzzer-beater against UCLA to push Gonzaga to the championship game. Suggs was dominant during the tournament, especially in his final three games, where he averaged 18.6 points per game on 55.2% shooting from the field. He played like the tournament was his own organized series of pickup games, with supreme levels of confidence to match his elite athleticism and talent. He plays hard on both ends of the floor and makes his presence felt at all times. Gonzaga had a ton of talented players this past season, and Suggs was far from the oldest or most experienced player on the team. However, he quickly became a driving force for his team through playmaking on offense and hard-nosed defense – he was an emotional leader for the Zags. Suggs is a strong, physical point guard with great size for the position and has elite two-way potential.
Strengths
• Championship mentality, phenomenal leader, commanding presence on the floor
• Great size and strength for the point guard position
• Above-average NBA athleticism, explosive finisher
• Precise passer, always plays with his head up
• Very difficult to stop when he gets downhill, great dribble moves
• Constant threat to finish in transition, especially with his defensive ability
• Can score at all three levels, on or off the ball
• Stellar defensive instincts can guard 1-3
Weaknesses
• His shooting needs to improve a bit, good not great
• Intensity leads to turnovers or forced shots at times
• Well-supported by elite Gonzaga offense – can he lead a team in scoring?
Best Landing Spot
Minnesota Timberwolves. Suggs is a Minnesota native, and a return home could make a lot of sense for the young guard. The Timberwolves may have the worst record in basketball this season, but they have a bright young core with Anthony Edwards, Karl Anthony-Towns, and D’Angelo Russell. Suggs would bring a much-needed championship edge and energetic leadership to the roster, as well as a versatile chess piece on both ends of the floor. The cherry on top is the hometown connection that would have Timberwolves fans giddy.
Worst Landing Spot
Houston Rockets. I struggled to find a really poor fit for Jalen Suggs, a remarkably versatile player who can fill a number of roles for his team. However, the Rockets’ current lack of stability and proven in-house talent could prove problematic for a player who was a part of one of the most talented teams in the country in college basketball last season. With more freedom to be a high-usage player, Suggs could see his worst tendencies get the best of him as a sometimes turnover-prone player.
Draft Range
Top 3
NBA Comparison
Kyle Lowry. At just 6’0”, 195 pounds, Kyle Lowry is far from the most physically imposing point guard in the NBA. However, he’s made his money on fundamentally sound ball-handling, solid shooting from all over the court, and emotionally driven hard-nosed defensive play that energizes his team. That describes Suggs’ game quite well, and with a bit more size than Lowry, Suggs has tremendous upside in that type of a role for his NBA team.
Ratings Breakdown
Shooting: 7: After shooting just 33.7% from 3-point range and 76.1% from the free-throw line, there are some question marks about Suggs’s shooting. Of course, he was responsible for the best shot of this college basketball season, but he needs to reign in his shot selection and perhaps take fewer pull-up threes off the dribble. His mechanics and technique are sound.
Passing: 8: A tremendous dribble-drive player, Suggs was able to find assists by kicking out to his open teammates on the perimeter. His court vision and anticipatory reads aren’t particularly advanced, however, and he likely won’t be an offensive hub in the NBA. His 2.9 turnovers per game were too many at Gonzaga, as well. Still, his passing is far from a weakness in his game and his pick-and-roll playmaking will likely translate.
Dribbling: 8.5: Suggs put on display some exciting ball-handling skills during the March Madness tournament, and he handles the ball very well under pressure. He tends to pick up his dribble a bit early at times, but with his combination of aggressiveness, physicality, and technique, he should be a strong dribble-drive scorer in the NBA.
Hustle: 10: Nobody works harder than Jalen Suggs. That’s the first thing that stood out to me during his freshman season at Gonzaga. He plays with so much heart and determination. Suggs is the type of guy who you just love to have on your team. His energy is infectious, and he has no fear.
Defense: 9: Suggs averaged 1.9 steals per game during his freshman season at Gonzaga, and that was no accident. He’s a disruptive defender on or off the ball, and he showed no lack of motor on defense at any point. However, Suggs has a limiting 6’5” wingspan that will likely limit him to defending only opposing guards.
Total rating: 50.5/60
3
Originally slated to play for Michigan this past season, Jalen Green was one of the first high-profile prospects to opt for the G-League instead. Green started 15 games for the G-League Ignite this past season, and while he didn’t get the media attention and fanfare that college players typically attract, he was able to hone some skills and better prepare himself for the NBA. Jalen Green is the fastest player in this draft class, and his first step is absurd – he leaves defenders in the dust frequently. Green combines his elite athleticism with top-notch skills and instincts. He can hit shots from all over the floor and showed some impressive off-the-dribble shooting skills. Green may be streaky at times, but he can win games on his own when he’s hot. Green has the type of athleticism that gives him limitless upside in the NBA, and he’s an important part of an insanely talented top of the draft.
Strengths
• Blazing speed with a lightning-quick first step
• Phenomenal skillset to finish in the paint
• Can take over games with his shooting when he’s hot
• Improving as a passer to give him a more well-rounded game
• Upside to become a high-level defender
Weaknesses
• Limited by physical stature at just 175 lbs
• Jumper can be hit-or-miss, consistency needs to improve
• Needs to reign in shot selection
• Decent rebounder but not a standout
• Passing game needs to improve
Best Landing Spot
Oklahoma City Thunder. In the midst of a long-term rebuild, the Thunder will have two first-round picks to work within this draft. The Thunder have shown their developmental capabilities in working with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Luguentz Dort, Darius Bazley, and Moses Brown, among others, and Green would have the opportunity to become the leader of a young, talented group. Green would have the green light right away in Oklahoma City, and his efficiency would come along as he gets his legs under him in the NBA.
Worst Landing Spot
Minnesota Timberwolves. There’s a little bit of Andrew Wiggins in Jalen Green’s game. Now, to Wiggins’s credit, that isn’t the worst thing in the world as there are some things that he does legitimately well on the basketball court. However, a formerly uber-athletic, high-flying scorer seemed to lose all of his juice in Minnesota, and Green could struggle in an inconsistent Timberwolves environment right now.
Draft Range
Top 2-4
NBA Comparison
Zach LaVine. The Bulls’ shooting guard is coming off an All-Star season and is one of the more complete scorers in the NBA. LaVine has a very similar size profile to Jalen Green at 6’5”, and while he has about 20 pounds on him, Green could build some muscle onto his frame and get to that point. LaVine is a blur on his way to the basket, and he’s also lethal on pull-up moves, making defenders’ lives very difficult. The athleticism LaVine possesses in addition to his craftiness and shooting consistency make him a high-impact scorer. Jalen Green may be a slightly better defensive talent than LaVine, but their offensive games are very similar as both are phenomenal scorers who can score at all three levels.
Ratings Breakdown
Shooting: 10: There is a legitimate case to be made that Green is the best shooter in this draft class. His 46.1/36.5/82.9 shooting splits were solid last season, and he has microwave-scorer capabilities. When he catches fire, his long-range shooting is unstoppable. He has all of the necessary physical abilities and technical skillset to be an elite scorer in the NBA.
Passing: 7: Green averaged just 2.8 assists to 2.7 turnovers in his 15 G-League games, and he isn’t likely to be a high-level playmaker in the NBA. He’s shown significant improvement in this regard but still isn’t the full package on the offensive end like Cade Cunningham could be. Green’s improvements as a playmaker would only make his high-level scoring more lethal.
Dribbling: 10: It’s almost comical how Jalen Green embarrassed some G-League defenders off the dribble last season, and his first step is absurdly quick. Seriously, go watch his highlights from last season and see him blaze past defenders standing in his path. He’ll take advantage of a number of slower defenders in the NBA.
Defense: 8: Jalen Green’s defense wasn’t spectacular in the G-League, and at just 175 lbs, he has to put on some weight before he can be a high-impact player on that end of the floor. However, he has all of the speed and athleticism in the world to become a strong defender in the NBA.
Total rating: 51/60
4
A McDonald’s All-American in 2020 and consensus second-team All-American in 2021, Evan Mobley is a highly acclaimed prospect with a track record of success. There aren’t many impact big men left in the NBA, but Mobley figures to be one of those guys in short order. A 7-footer at just 215 lbs, he absolutely has to put on weight to be able to consistently compete on the glass in the NBA. However, he is remarkably fluid on his feet and has the rare skill set to be a great rim protector who can stretch out to defend on the perimeter. There is also enough to go on to think that he should develop more of a long-range offensive game at some point. Mobley was a double-double machine this past season and has a well-developed offensive game with the ability to score on the drive or off the catch. He likely won’t ever be a true power player in the NBA, but his technical ability and smooth footwork are very enticing for teams at the top of the lottery. Mobley has improved at a tremendous rate already and has exciting upside.
Strengths
• Ideal size for the center position – 7’0” height, 7’4” wingspan
• Excellent coordination, footwork, and technical ability
• Great rim protector with regard to positioning and anticipation
• Has the foot speed to cover shooters on the perimeter
• Able to score off the dribble or the catch, smooth shooting stroke
• Plays above the rim better than anyone in this class
Weaknesses
• At just 215 lbs, Mobley has to add more muscle in order to compete in the NBA
• He Will likely never be a powerful player in the NBA by comparison – will limit upside
Best Landing Spot
Cleveland Cavaliers. The Cavs will likely finish just out of range to take Evan Mobley, but he would be a special player for them. With a backcourt of the future in place in Collin Sexton and Darius Garland, Cleveland will be looking to add to their frontcourt talent. Mobley would provide a tremendous pick-and-roll or pick-and-pop partner for those guards, and he would be a tremendous addition to the team’s defense. Alongside Sexton, Garland, and Isaac Okoro, Mobley would push the Cavs toward having one of the best nuclei of young talent in the NBA.
Worst Landing Spot
Minnesota Timberwolves. There aren’t many truly bad fits for the star center, but if Mobley landed on the team with the worst record in the NBA it would raise some eyebrows. For one thing, Karl Anthony-Towns is still in place as the team’s franchise player, and it would be a questionable fit to integrate Mobley next to him. Additionally, the Wolves will likely be in range to select Cunningham or Suggs at the top of the draft, so Mobley is likely not their preferred option. He’s talented enough to succeed wherever he’s drafted, but the Wolves aren’t the best fit for him.
Draft Range
Top 4
NBA Comparison
Jonathan Isaac. I’ve seen comparisons to Chris Bosh and Anthony Davis for Mobley, but I have some issues with those. Bosh’s offensive game was remarkably complete with a full repertoire of post-up, face-up, and pull-up moves – Mobley is much rawer offensively, although I do think he has that type of ceiling. Anthony Davis is arguably the best big man defender in the NBA and I doubt Mobley will have the same complete defensive game as he’s just not in the same realm in terms of physicality. Jonathan Isaac feels like a sweet spot in that he has great size (6’11” height, 7’1” wingspan) and is one of the better rim protectors in the NBA. Like Isaac, Mobley may not have the physicality to play the center position in the NBA consistently, but Mobley has similar athletic traits to Isaac and is incredibly mobile. Isaac’s offensive game hasn’t quite translated to the NBA yet, but both Isaac and Mobley have great upside in that regard.
Ratings Breakdown
Shooting: 7: Mobley wasn’t asked to shoot many threes at USC, but he has a fluid stroke and sound fundamentals as a shooter. He shot just 30% from three on limited attempts last season and just 69.4% from the free-throw line, but scouts are confident he will develop into a solid floor-spacer in the NBA.
Passing: 9: Evan Mobley won’t wow you with elite hustle plays like Jalen Suggs, but there’s little to dislike about his on-court demeanor. He’s not a fiery, vocal leader – instead, he leads by example in his work ethic and dedication. Mobley plays with a high motor.
Dribbling: 8: The way Mobley handles the ball makes him seem like much more of a small forward than a center. He has tremendous speed in the open floor but doesn’t play out of control, making smart decisions on the drive. His off-the-dribble scoring is rare for a seven-footer.
Defense: 10: There hasn’t been a prospect this good defensively in the NBA draft since Ben Simmons and Jaylen Brown were drafted in 2016. Mobley has incredible defensive instincts and uses his quick feet and 7’4” wingspan to full advantage in protecting the rim. He also has the ability to step out and guard much smaller players on the wings. There won’t be a defensive assignment Mobley can’t handle at the next level.
Total rating: 50/60
5
Jonathan Kuminga is still just a kid. At 18 and a half years old, Kuminga will be one of the youngest players on an NBA roster next year. He initially reclassified from the 2021 class to the 2020 class, and then found himself forgoing college to land on a G-League roster the following season. In essence, he represents the closest thing we have to a 2021 version of a kid going straight from high school to the league.
As time goes on in the NBA, the importance of projectability is exponentiated. Front offices are tired of lacking the futuristic thinking that is needed to pick truly revolutionary players. As a matter of fact, some of the best players in our game today weren’t top picks. Steph Curry, Damian Lillard, Nikola Jokic, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Kawhi Leonard, Jimmy Butler, Paul George, and many, many others were not Top 3 or Top 5 guys coming out of college (or overseas).
This narrative is exactly where Kuminga fits in honestly. The 2021 draft class has a bit of depth in my opinion, and I think anyone in the lottery can score big.
The hardest aspect of analyzing players like Kuminga, who was in the G-League this season, is the very, very short schedule. They operated under the same constraints as the NBA Playoff Bubble did last year, and that didn’t give us as much time to evaluate players who we may have otherwise seen play many more times.
Now, on to Kuminga: he is an absolute freak of an athlete. It only takes one view of a breakaway, windmill slam to see that. He has some uncanny explosion and NBA front offices drool at the thought of having guards with elite athleticism. Not to mention, his defensive prowess is spectacular. Most kids who dominate in high school have a harder time initially adjusting to the defensive end, but Kuminga leaves all of those concerns well behind.
Strengths
• Exceptional Athlete. He plays well above the rim and is tremendously coordinated for a 6-foot-8 wing.
• A strong defender with physical tools to mirror Kawhi or Paul George on the defensive end.
• Great size and frame: 6-foot-8 with a 7-foot wingspan. He weighs over 220 pounds, suggesting he already has an NBA body as an 18-year-old.
• Already advanced playmaker in transition for his age and position.
Weaknesses
• Skillset is still very raw. Needs to work on counters for his moves and attacking angles. He relies heavily on spin moves as his counters, much like Giannis, however does not have the luxury of covering as much space as Giannis does.
• Craftiness around the rim. He relies a bit too much on raw athleticism and will need to develop a strong lay-up package for the times when he won’t be able to dunk on rim runs and drives.
• Shooting needs to become more consistent. The foundation and framework for his jump shot are there, but he lacks consistency. Once he gets more reps working with an NBA team, his 3-point percentage should increase, and thus, turn into a strength.
Best Landing Spot
I like Kuminga to the Cavaliers. They need a talented wing player desperately and that gives him the ability to step in immediately and get minutes. It is invaluable for a raw 18 or 19-year-old to go up against the superb forwards in this game like Kevin Durant, LeBron, and Giannis. Since Cleveland has virtually no identity as well, Kuminga should get plenty of touches and hopefully some experience playmaking out of offensive isolations.
Worst Landing Spot
I definitely don’t anticipate this happening, but if Kuminga slipped to Toronto, and they picked him for value, that would be a really bad spot for him. Jonathan’s game mirrors Siakam and O.G. quite a bit, and for Kuminga to grow as a player, he needs to have space to operate, learn, and get experience. Playing behind those guys will not help him.
Draft Range
4-5 Overall
NBA Comparison
Kuminga is still so raw that it’s hard to particularly identify any star player comparisons, however, I would compare him currently to the likes of O.G. Anunoby, with more offensive upside like Pascal Siakam, or even Jaylen Brown. He has shown flashes of being able to isolate and take defenders off the dribble, and he’s still so young and moldable that his ceiling is one of the highest in this draft class.
Ratings Breakdown
Shooting: 6.5. This rating was a hard one to assign because the mechanics are all there, but he hasn’t proven to be efficient yet at the highest level. It’s evident that once he gets accustomed to the speed at the professional level, he will have no issues hitting step-back jumpers as well as catch-and-shoot 3s.
Passing: 6.5. If Kuminga can elevate his overall playmaking ability, this number will skyrocket. There are glimpses of his passing ability, but oftentimes, the pass is just off the mark and can lead to tougher finishes for bigs or harder shots for guards.
Dribbling: 7.5. As mentioned before, Kuminga demonstrates great transition skills and has shown some isolation ability at the professional level at just 18 years old. Handling the ball is such an important aspect of personal game development at the next level because everyone is expected to be able to make plays.
Defense: 9. Kuminga projects to be a very high-level defender in the future. All of the physical tools are there, and he pairs that with well-above-average defensive instinct.
Total rating: 46/60
6
This is a tricky one to try and evaluate. The big storyline around Johnson was that he chose to opt-out of the regular season when Duke had 6 games remaining because of a foot injury. Some thought that Johnson had quit on the team, and this perplexed many minds around the college and pro basketball landscape as Johnson was Duke’s most talented player. Johnson managed to score 11.2 PPG and secure 6.1 RPG on a weak Duke team and displayed all of the size, speed, shooting ability, handling ability, passing ability, and basketball IQ that NBA teams want to see. However, Johnson was inconsistent as he scored 24 points and grabbed 16 rebounds on 53.3% shooting against The University of Pittsburgh but only managed to score 3 points on 0-2 shooting against NC State. He also missed three games in late December with a foot injury which also raises some red flags for GMs across the league. That being said, Johnson is a top-rated lottery prospect for a reason and could become a great scorer at the next level if given the right situation.
Strengths
• Has shown that he can put people on posters by finishing at the rim with authority.
• Knows when and where to cut
• High Basketball IQ
• Elite post moves/ footwork
• Aggressive mindset
• Shot blocking ability
Weaknesses
• Competitiveness
• Inconsistent shooting
• Lacks quickness/ elite burst
• Poor free-throw shooting (only 63.2%)
• Perimeter Defense
Best Landing Spot
Oklahoma City Thunder. The Thunder are in desperate need of a player who can score and Johnson has shown that he can do just that. Johnson should have the green light to shoot in OKC from day 1 as there is no clear scoring threat. He is also surrounded by good shot-creating guards like Shai Gilgeous Alexander, and Dariuz Bazely would give Johnson the shots and opportunity necessary to become an elite scorer in the league.
Worst Landing Spot
Sacramento Kings. Sacramento already has two forwards that can score and rebound in Marvin Bagley III and Harrison Barnes, so Johnson would have to sit behind those two for the start of his career. The Kings also have a shot-blocking forward in Richaun Holmes so that would also take more minutes away from Johnson. In Sacramento, Johnson would serve as a backup, which would stifle his development.
Draft Range
Top 5 – Top 10
NBA Comparison
Obi Toppin. Apart from their similar physical attributes, both stand at 6’9” and weigh 220 lbs, both also have similar play styles. Toppin has a great basketball IQ with the awareness to know when to cut and at the right time, just like Johnson. Both also lack the elite burst to beat people off the dribble but have the fundamental footwork and skills necessary to get to the rim. Toppin and Johnson also has great shot-blocking ability for a power forward while also suspect of being beaten if they have to play perimeter defense. Toppin might be a better free-throw shooter, but both struggle with the consistency of their three-point shot. Johnson has more upside because he’s the better athlete of the two, but that Obi Toppin isn’t the worst comparison for a guy that’s going to be a lottery pick.
Ratings Breakdown
Shooting: 7: While Johnson has shown flashes of elite shot-making ability, he struggles when it comes to the consistency of his shooting. Johnson’s 44.4% three-point shooting is only on 18 attempts in 13 games and he struggles from the free-throw line only shooting at 63.2%. However, his post-shooting is great and his efficiency is good around the paint.
Passing: 9: Johnson is not turnover prone and always seems to find the right person to pass to in the open court or when he is doubled in the post. He does not possess the passing prowess of guys like Chris Paul or Nikola Jokic, but he does remind me of Tobias Harris with the way he passes.
Dribbling: 8: Johnson has shown that he can initiate the fast break on his own and can handle in the open court at a fast tempo. He is a smooth dribbler and can post up smaller defenders by using his dribble.
Defense: 6: Again, Johnson never looked locked in on defense despite impressive counting stats proving otherwise. He lacks elite foot speed which showed when he tried to guard quicker guards he was forced to switch on. Johnson is a terrific athlete who can block shots at the rim, but he can not keep up with guards or forwards with quick bursts of speed.
Total rating: 45/60
7
Josh Giddey is another one of those young players who will get drafted before turning 19 years old. Giddey has some weaknesses but also has some undeniably fascinating attributes.
To be as coordinated as he is at 6-foot-8 and only 18 years of age is amazing. In conjunction, he has a next-level IQ, which is flat-out rare. His passing and vision are elite, and the way he can look off passes and uses different lofts, angles, spins, and speeds remind me of a combination of LaMelo Ball and Joe Ingles.
The concerns with Giddey offensively are his ability to switch gears, stop on a dime to shoot, and his isolation ability in general. Once he is going in one direction, he struggles to shift or change it. Defensively, he will need to improve in foot speed and lateral quickness. He can use his defensive IQ to close the gap necessary to be a league-level defender, but NBA guards are inherently fast.
Strengths
• League-level vision. Giddey looks off passes, finds the open man and finds off-ball cutters religiously.
• Great size for a combo guard: 6-foot-8 with a 6-foot-7 wingspan.
• Good speed with the ball paired with highly advanced transition skills.
• Passing IQ and accuracy are superb.
• P&R game will transition nicely to the league.
Weaknesses
• Quickness. Josh needs to develop the ability to switch gears. He may have some trouble getting past defenders at the next level.
• Defense/Lateral Quickness. NBA guards would fly by Giddey right now. Luckily, he’s only 18, and there’s plenty of time to work on that. His length should help slightly mitigate these issues transitioning to the NBA.
Best Landing Spot
I think Giddey’s ideal spot lands him in a place with great shooting and player development coaches. This perfect spot could look like San Antonio or Golden State. Golden State could use him as a backup for Curry while adjusting him to the speed of the NBA game. Eventually, they could utilize him alongside Curry and Thompson as well. San Antonio is excellent at developing players, and it may make sense for them to pull the trigger on Giddey, as well.
Worst Landing Spot
I think Boston would not be a good fit for Giddey because they don’t seem to know which direction they want to go in as an organization. They have two All-Star caliber players in Brown and Tatum, who are both wings and require the ball a substantial amount. This situation does not bode well for Giddey, and I don’t think he would see the floor enough.
Draft Range
Top 15
NBA Comparison
Giddey sports size, passing ability, and transition skills that resemble a little bit of LaMelo Ball. By no means is he as polished as LaMelo was coming into the league, but there are glimpses. He has a feel for the game, basketball IQ, and control similar to Joe Ingles. What will be interesting is seeing whether he becomes more of a playmaking guard who has the ball in his hands constantly or will have to transition to more of an off-ball type of player.
Ratings Breakdown
Shooting: 5. This may be an unfair critique, but his form is concerning; let’s put shooting percentage aside momentarily. There will need to be an overhaul on his form for it to be passable because it takes way too long, and there’s too much lower body movement.
Passing: 9. Instinctual passer with an excellent feel for the game, solid touch, and finds the open man in transition.
Dribbling: 8. Giddey’s ball control for being so tall is pretty solid but not fool-proof. He gets occasionally caught too upright or with easily readable counters that result in turnovers.
Defense: 6. There’s room for improvement defensively. He struggles with lateral quickness, foot speed, and using proper angles and closeouts. His length and height will help him cover some of this, but not all of it.
Total rating: 44/60
8
Keon Johnson is a 19-year-old combo guard out of Tennessee. As a former 5-star recruit, he chose to be a Volunteer and made his short time there worthwhile.
Keon impressed many people in his freshman year by displaying incredible lateral quickness, defensive IQ, athleticism, and slashing ability. This is enough to make many NBA teams salivate over the opportunity to draft him and help him develop his game further. His size is right around average for a 2-guard, and his long, 6-foot-8 wingspan helps as well. However, he will want to put on some more muscle to his frame to ensure he can finish around the rim at the league level.
There are a few concerns with Keon’s shooting. His ability to get to his spot and rise over defenders for a shot in the mid-range is excellent. However, that may not do as much good in an NBA that’s transitioning to mainly 3-point shots and finishes around the rim.
He struggles the most with his 3-point shooting, which can look a bit stiff and uncomfortable, and occasionally, he will have some bad misses. By no means is shooting 27.1% from behind the arc in your freshman year the “end-all,” but it highlights a necessary correction.
Strengths
• Excels in downhill attacking, slashing, and finishing around the rim.
• Explosive athlete with exceptional speed with and without the ball.
• Lateral Quickness and significant defensive upside.
Weaknesses
• He is still very raw offensively and will need to develop several counters and offensive moves to fulfill his scoring potential.
• 3-point shooting is a concern. Johnson does not look comfortable shooting from behind the arc. Until this concern is addressed, defenders will go under screens to acknowledge driving ability and force a jump shot off the bounce.
Best Landing Spot
Toronto Raptors. With Kyle Lowry entering free agency, and many indications that he could leave, it may be in the Raptors’ best interest to go for a combo guard in this draft. Considering that Toronto has a history of drafting and coaching up raw talent, this may be a match made in heaven for the Raptors and Johnson.
Worst Landing Spot
Golden State Warriors. I don’t see this fit working out, and while I highly doubt Golden State would pick Johnson in that slot, stranger things have happened. Keon needs a spot where he can develop offensively and see the floor immediately, and in Golden State, it’s hard to see that happening.
Draft Range
top 10
NBA Comparison
The best comparison that pops into mind is Victor Oladipo. They are similar in size, play the same position, and have very comparable athletic traits. Oladipo struggled shooting from behind the arc in his first two years in college, as did Johnson in his first year, and needed some time to work out his mechanics and consistency. Oladipo was able to do that by his junior year. I think this is about as easy of a comparison as it gets in terms of them both being spectacularly athletic, two-footed dunkers with incredible downhill speed and finishing ability.
Ratings Breakdown
Shooting: 6. Keon already has an established mid-range pull-up game, which isn’t as important as it used to be in the NBA but will provide an excellent segue to gaining confidence at the next level. His 3-point shooting drops this number quite a bit for me because of the inconsistency and lack of expanding his range.
Passing: 6. The role that Johnson played at Tennessee was not necessarily conducive to improving his passing skills. He inherently has a scorer’s mentality, even though there are some deficiencies with his shooting.
Dribbling: 7.5. Keon is a strong ball-handler, but turnovers can be a bit of an issue. He averaged more turnovers than assists per game, which is forgivable because of his youth and lack of experience but needs to be corrected at the next level.
Defense: 9.5. Johnson has made plays on the defensive end of the floor this year that are eyebrow-raising. His lateral quickness is superb, and he avoids reaching with his hands and becoming off-balanced when he is out of position. Instead, he can perceive where the offensive player will go and often block or alter their shots or even cause turnovers.
Total rating: 46/60
9
A consensus five-star recruit with dozens of collegiate offers, Scottie Barnes opted to stay close to home and enroll at Florida State. He excelled in his short time there, as he earned a nod as the ACC’s Freshman of the Year and Sixth Man of the Year. At 6’9” and 227 lbs, Barnes already has an NBA stature filled out with muscle, and he has all of the skills to boot. He possesses point guard-like ball-handling and playmaking skills, but he has the size to defend frontcourt players as well. He was a jack-of-all-trades off the bench for Florida State, and he should serve a similarly wide range of roles in the NBA. Barnes has remarkable agility for his size, and he moves really well on the floor. His jump shot needs work, and he likely won’t be an elite scorer in the NBA, but he does everything else on the floor incredibly well. As he continues to evolve as a player and develop new facets of his game, he has phenomenal upside as a future star player.
Strengths
• Power for days – one of the strongest players in the class
• Has a point guard skill set in terms of ball-handling and distribution
• Incredible defensive versatility – can guard 1-5
• Very agile and quick for his size
• Intensity on the floor rubs off on his teammates
Weaknesses
• He likely won’t lead his team in scoring at any point
• Outside shooting needs a lot of work
• Needs to be surrounded by talented players
Best Landing Spot
Golden State Warriors. The Timberwolves traded their first-round pick this year to the Warriors in exchange for D’Angelo Russell, so Golden State will get the luxury of an early lottery pick this year. Scottie Barnes would have to be thrilled to land in the Bay Area as he’d be surrounded by highly talented veteran players who can allow him to focus on what he does best. Barnes would fill a similar role for the Warriors to what he did at Florida State as a high-energy, do-it-all bench player who can develop into much more over time.
Worst Landing Spot
Oklahoma City Thunder. The Thunder are in desperate need of a go-to scorer to define their team offensively, and that type of player could be available for them in the lottery. However, Barnes is not that guy. Without a strong culture of success or talented veteran players in Oklahoma City, Barnes’s development could stagnate. He would still provide value to the Thunder, but they aren’t the best landing spot for him to realize his full potential.
Draft Range
top 10
NBA Comparison
Draymond Green. A former three-time NBA Champion, three-time All-Star, and 2017 Defensive Player of the Year, Green has defined intensity and grittiness from a role player over the past half-decade plus. Barnes has similar off-ball defensive tendencies and the ability to muck up other teams’ offensive possessions, and he’s arguably a better physical specimen than Green in terms of strength and speed. Like Green, Barnes will only be a valuable NBA player if he’s surrounded by great players, but his playmaking and leadership should shine in the right professional setting.
Ratings Breakdown
Shooting: 5: The biggest thing lacking from Barnes’s game is consistent shooting – he shot just 27.5% from 3-point range and 62.1% from free-throw range last season. He’s pretty efficient scoring in the paint, but he lacks range and will be limited as a scorer until his jump shot improves.
Passing: 8: Barnes is a phenomenal passer and his 2.05 AST/TO ratio ranked third in the country among power-five freshmen. He is the definition of a modern combo point forward and should be able to provide offensive creativity for his NBA team at a solid level.
Dribbling: 7: Barnes doesn’t have the elite ball-handling of the top point forwards in the NBA, but he is a fluid athlete who can create offense in transition. He can consistently get to the rim with the ball in his hands and create off the dribble with an explosive first step.
Defense: 10: It’s hard to imagine how Barnes could be a better defensive prospect. With 6’9” height, a 7’2” wingspan, and 9’0” standing reach, he can hang with big men in the post while still possessing the foot speed to compete with guards on the perimeter. His off-ball awareness and on-ball competitiveness are off the charts and his frame is very well-developed for his age.
Total rating: 47/60
10
A German swing forward, Franz Wagner followed his older brother Moritz to Michigan where he spent two seasons as a starter. In the 2020-21 season, Wagner improved his playmaking and long-range shooting significantly to make himself a highly enticing prospect. His last game of college, a disappointing Michigan loss to UCLA in the East Regional Final, did little to inspire confidence as a large audience watched the German prospect. Wagner shot 1-10 in that game and scored just four points. However, he impressed throughout his time at Michigan and has shown the ability to contribute as an isolation scorer, playmaker, and spot-up shooter on offense. He likely will never be an elite defender, but he improved massively through the past two years and has the ability to be a high-level player on that side as well. Franz Wagner has a great all-around game on both ends of the floor, and has all of the traits to develop into an impact player in the NBA.
Strengths
• Great feel for the game – translates to scoring and passing
• Crafty scorer in the lane and in mid-range
• Smooth ball-handler with tremendous court vision
• Good motor, makes plays happen off-schedule
• Solid rebounder, uses size to advantage
Weaknesses
• Shot comes and goes, susceptible to streakiness
• Doesn’t draw enough fouls in the paint
• Foot speed on defense is lacking at times, struggles to guard faster players
• Inconsistency is troubling
Best Landing Spot
Memphis Grizzlies. Franz Wagner looks overburdened at times on offense and was prone to poor shot selection and over-aggressiveness on offense leading to turnovers. In Memphis, he would be much more of a secondary ball-handler and playmaker alongside Ja Morant, one of the best young point guards in the NBA. Wagner would benefit the Grizzlies with his versatility on both ends of the floor and would be an easy plug-and-play forward next to Dillon Brooks and Jaren Jackson Jr.
Worst Landing Spot
Boston Celtics. On the surface, Franz Wagner may be able to fill the role Gordon Hayward vacated for the Celtics when he left for the Hornets in free agency. However, Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown are clearly the future of the forward positions for Boston and I’m not sure Wagner is the best fit with those players. Boston’s biggest needs are rebounding/rim protection and playmaking. Wagner can fill those roles, but there are better options for those things in the first round.
Draft Range
Top 15
NBA Comparison
Nico Batum. The Clippers’ Nico Batum has had an excellent run in the 2021 playoffs with solid shooting and the ability to guard virtually any position on the floor. Wagner has the same type of versatility and ability to succeed without the ball in his hands, but he profiles with a bit more ball-handling and playmaking than Batum. Many analysts have compared Wagner to Kyle Anderson with his ability to pass the ball.
Ratings Breakdown
Shooting: 8: Long-range shooting is where Wagner will have to make his money in the NBA. His form and technique are very solid, but his shot selection could use some work. He shot 83% or better in both of his collegiate seasons and improved from 31.1% from deep in his freshman season to 34.3% in his sophomore season.
Passing: 7: Wagner’s 3.0 assists per game this past season don’t jump off the page, but his floor positioning and control of the game aid in his ability to help serve as a secondary playmaker. Go watch his film against Florida State in the Sweet 16, a game in which he had 5 assists and no turnovers, to better understand his playmaking capabilities.
Dribbling: 7: Wagner is not a particularly explosive athlete and he isn’t a menace off the dribble like some forwards in this class. However, he does have the ability to create offense with the ball in his hands, either by scoring in the paint or sucking the defense onto him to kick out to open shooters.
Hustle: 7: While he isn’t the fastest or most physical player, Wagner’s anticipation and feel for the game allow him to consistently make off-schedule plays that help his team in big ways. He has a solid motor and I don’t have any real concerns about this aspect of his game.
Defense: 8: Again, he’s not the most physical or fast player out there. Still, Wagner showed the ability to guard multiple positions and he racked up steals due to his anticipation on the defensive end. Wagner won’t be a liability on defense, but he may struggle to keep faster players in front of him.
Total rating: 44/60
11
The Baylor Bears are coming off their first-ever national championship this past season and their first Final Four appearance since 1950. Davion Mitchell was a vital part of his team’s successes, especially during the NCAA tournament in which he scored 12 or more points in every game and provided excellent defense as well. Mitchell started his career at Auburn in 2017 as an under-the-radar four-star prospect who 247 Sports ranked as the 59th-best player in his class. Mitchell transferred to Baylor following his freshman season and transformed himself into one of the best two-way players in the country. Mitchell does turn 23 years old in September, so he doesn’t have the same long-term potential for growth as some other players in this class. However, he’s a ready-made impact two-way player for the NBA and has the type of athleticism and physicality that will put him in contention for a starting role for his team right away in his rookie season.
Strengths
• Efficient shooter from all over the floor off-the-dribble or catch-and-shoot
• Quick with the ball in his hands, beats defenders one-on-one
• Smart pick-and-roll operator with good court vision
• One of the best on-ball defenders in the country, always locked in
• Excellent communicator and leader
Weaknesses
• Already 22 years old, older than most other players in this class
• Poor free throw shooter – 66.7%, bad indicator for NBA success
• Can be overly aggressive on defense at times
• Not a productive rebounder
• Lacks elite length (wingspan 6’3”-6’4”)
Best Landing Spot
Toronto Raptors. The Raptors have had recent success with older prospects in Pascal Siakam and Fred VanVleet, both of whom were 22 when they joined the team, the same age that Mitchell is now. As Kyle Lowry’s career winds down, Toronto will be looking for a guard to take the mantle from him as their energetic, soulful leader and offensive initiator. A backcourt of him and Fred VanVleet would make a lot of sense as both guys can play on or off the ball, and Mitchell would aid in what should be one of the better defensive teams in the NBA.
Worst Landing Spot
Charlotte Hornets. It’s not that Mitchell wouldn’t be a valuable player for the Hornets, but Charlotte is already overloaded at guard with LaMelo Ball, Terry Rozier, and Devonte’ Graham. Mitchell would be a bit redundant with those players already on the roster. I also don’t have as much confidence in Charlotte’s player development ability as some other teams.
Draft Range
top 12
NBA Comparison
Marcus Smart. You can make the case that nobody in the NBA plays with more heart and soul than the Celtics’ smart, and I’m anticipating Davion Mitchell being a similar type of emotional leader for his professional team. Mitchell is a tremendous on-ball defender like Smart and he’s a great communicator who can play either guard position. Smart’s shooting comes and goes and he doesn’t quite have the ability to be a lead guard for an offense, so Mitchell could be better in both of those regards. However, Mitchell will make his money in the NBA with physical on-ball defense and a grit-and-grind mentality like Smart
Ratings Breakdown
Shooting: 8: With the third-highest effective field goal percentage among power five guards last season, Mitchell hit his shots at an incredible clip. He’s very confident pulling up from long range and he has a very fluid shot and great shot selection. The only reason Mitchell doesn’t get a better grade here is he shot just 65.7% from the free throw line through his three collegiate seasons, a concerning factor for his long-term shooting development.
Passing: 7: Mitchell has made huge improvements as a passer through his time in college and his playmaking is now a major part of his offensive game. He’s not going to be a lead passer in the NBA, but his floor awareness and accuracy will serve him well as a secondary playmaker.
Dribbling: 9: I loved watching Mitchell with the ball in his hands this past season at Baylor. His blend of confidence, foot speed, explosiveness, and floor awareness make him one of the most dangerous on-ball offensive players in this class. He’s going to be a menace in the NBA on the drive right away.
Defense: 8: Despite what he lacks in length (6’3”-6’4” wingspan), Mitchell is a ferocious defender who makes life difficult for opposing offensive players. He does have a tendency to be over-aggressive in going for steals at times, and he tries too hard to take charges sometimes, but if he can reign that all in his defensive capability will surely translate in the NBA.
Total rating: 49/60
12
Kai Jones just wrapped up his second season at Texas and is much improved in many areas. As someone who didn’t pick up the game until the age of 15, Kai was forced to exponentiate his learning curve, and the results are promising thus far.
Kai demonstrates a great hustle and motor while turning heads with the occasional euro-step or pull-up jumper as a 6-foot-11 forward. These intangibles create an unseeable ceiling. His 3-point shooting was especially impressive in his second year. Any time a big-man or power forward can shoot near 40% from behind the arc, there is reason to be excited.
Obviously, with Kai being so new to the game, he still has a lot to learn. It’s hard to say whether his absence of a post-game is an unwillingness or lack of coaching. Either way, unless your name is Giannis, if you’re a near 7-footer, then you have to have a few moves inside the paint in your arsenal.
Strengths
• Strong rim-protector potential.
• Great length.
• Can shoot from behind the arc.
• Bouncy and athletic for his size. He also moves well laterally and could potentially guard multiple positions at the next level.
Weaknesses
• Has virtually no post-up game.
• Basketball IQ is behind because he has only been playing the game for a few years.
• Needs to put on more muscle and weight.
• Lack of Rebounding.
Best Landing Spot
Memphis Grizzlies or Oklahoma City Thunder. Neither of these teams are ready to compete for a championship, and they have mid-first round picks, so taking a flier on a raw, but athletic big-man makes sense. Memphis is particularly intriguing, because if they were to help develop Jones to play alongside Jaren Jackson Jr., they could eventually have the most versatile front-court in the NBA.
Worst Landing Spot
New York Knicks. Obviously, there’s absolutely no reason the Knicks would draft Jones based off of their roster, but if it happened, it would be a nightmare for all parties involved.
Draft Range
Mid 1st (12-18)
NBA Comparison
Great rim-protector potential? Rim runs well? Athletic and fast for their size? Shoots the 3-pointer well off of catch-and-shoots? Can put the ball on the deck a little bit? Also played at Texas? That’s right. He has shades of Myles Turner. The similarities pop right off the screen, but keep in mind, Kai has a bit more agility. Jones has shown the ability to euro-step, stop-and-pop off the dribble, and a few other moves that Turner simply does not have in his arsenal. On the flip side, Jones has great rim protector potential, but Turner is an all-time great rim protector, so there is always some give and take with these comparisons.
Ratings Breakdown
Shooting: 7.5: Jones has shown the ability to knock down the 3-ball and remain incredibly efficient off the dribble and inside the paint. There are a few super minor hitches in his shot, but nothing that can’t be quickly fixed with a professional shooting coach.
Passing: 5: I have yet to see anything that indicates Jones can be a solid passer, but that’s not what will be asked of him at the next level; thus, his passing does not concern me.
Dribbling: 6: Kai handles the ball reasonably well for a big man, but improving this category would make him hard to defend all over the floor.
Defense: 8.5: NBA teams are looking for players who have transferable skills to the next level. Kai has all of the attributes of an elite-level rim protector in the NBA. We saw glimpses this year but, statistically, it was underwhelming.
Total rating: 42/60
13
The SEC freshman of the year, Moses Moody, will become the first one-and-done Arkansas player in its program’s history. With his stout shooting, smooth game, and great size for the guard position, NBA teams will be lining up to draft Moody, likely in the Top 10.
Moody is a great prospect and displays a lot of potential. Moody’s shot-making from behind the arc and off the dribble in the midrange reminds scouts of a young Khris Middleton. His game is incredibly smooth and scarcely forced or out of control.
There are a few things Moody will have to improve on, including his isolation game and passing. His overall ceiling is slightly limited because his athleticism isn’t overwhelming, but ultimately, his impact at the pro-level will be strong because of his feel for the game. He translates as an immediate 3-and-D player but could evolve into a primary or secondary scoring option.
Strengths
• Smooth game, never out of control.
• Great shooter. A better shooter than stats indicate.
• Good in the P&R and refuses ball screens well.
• Shooter’s Balance.
• Long wingspan.
Weaknesses
• Not an out-of-this-world athlete.
• Playmaking for others and passing.
• Not a super-effective finisher around the rim.
• He doesn’t have a super quick first step, so he can struggle to get around defenders.
Best Landing Spot
New Orleans Pelicans. Moody projects immediately as a 3-and-D guy, and he needs to see the floor to further develop his offensive confidence and defensive IQ. That’s why going to the Pels makes sense. They need three-point shooting and perimeter defense, and he can show up on Day 1 and provide just that.
Worst Landing Spot
None. Moody is one of only a few prospects that don’t have a proverbial “worst landing spot.” The reason is that every team in today’s NBA needs 3-and-D guys, and you can pretty much never get enough.
Draft Range
Top 10
NBA Comparison
Khris Middleton. Moody is a controlled player and great at hitting contested shots. However, that doesn’t mean he’s an elite shot creator. Neither Middleton nor Moody have overwhelming athleticism and can struggle to finish around the rim at times because of this fact. Middleton became an elite isolation player, despite the same concerns Moody has coming out of college. Moody will have to deepen his shot-creating with the ball to make this comparison come to life.
Ratings Breakdown
Shooting: 8: Moody projects as a 3-and-D player immediately with primary or secondary scoring options as his ceiling. Despite the fact he only shot 35.8% from behind the arc, his mechanics are incredibly sound, and this number will only go up as time goes on.
Passing: 6.5: Whenever a perimeter player averages less than two assists per game, I am drawn to one of two conclusions: either their role within the offense is to score, or they are not a strong passer. For Moody, it may be a combination of the two, but this will have to increase.
Dribbling: 7.5: Moody does not get stripped, and his ball-handling is in no way a concern. His dribbling needs a slight improvement to work on more of an isolation game in the future.
Defense: 8.5: Moody’s ability to retreat and use his hands effectively without fouling on driving opponents, dig into the post, and block shots using his long wingspan garner this rating.
Total rating: 47.5/60
14
Ziaire Williams was the number one small forward in the class of 2020 and a consensus five-star recruit. While he struggled a bit in his freshman year at Stanford, there are still many attributes to love about Williams. Scouts are concerned with Ziaire’s shooting inconsistencies, but his raw potential is enough to overlook those deficiencies as a mid-first-round pick.
Williams displayed superb athleticism, has excellent length, and can shoot in the mid-range off the dribble reasonably well. He has stellar size and length for the small forward position and will have no problems guarding other small forwards in the league. Defensively, his hands are in every passing lane and contest every shot. Once his defensive IQ is honed, he will be a threat on that end in the NBA.
Ziaire could stand to put some weight on his body. Being 185 pounds is almost not enough for a guard, let alone a 6-foot-8 forward, but that will come as he matures. As mentioned before, shooting is the apparent issue with Williams’ projectability, but if an NBA team has a shooting coach that they believe in, then he should go off the board pretty quickly on draft night.
Strengths
• P&R game, snakes screens well and keeps defenders on his back.
• Mid-range. He shoots well off the dribble and in rhythm.
• Length disrupts on defense. He gets his hands on a lot of passes.
• Athleticism is excellent for a 6-foot-8 perimeter player.
Weaknesses
• Inefficient. He only shot 37.4% from the field over 20 games.
• Shooting Inconsistencies.
• Finishing ability
Best Landing Spot
Oklahoma City Thunder. The Thunder are in rebuild mode, and that’s where Williams will want to find himself. Williams needs to be in a position where he won’t get stashed at the end of the bench.
Worst Landing Spot
New York Knicks. The Knicks need guards. Their frontcourt is in good shape. Williams landing in New York would not work well for either party as it stands right now.
Draft Range
Mid 1st 10-20
NBA Comparison
Harrison Barnes. Williams and Barnes display striking similarities. Despite being the exact sizes and playing the same position, they also shoot well off the dribble in the mid-range and are freakishly athletic.
Ratings Breakdown
Shooting: 6: Ziaire would be a bonafide Top 10 pick if his shooting weren’t such a significant concern. While he does display some solid shooting off the dribble in the mid-range, his sporadic shooting from behind the arc is concerning.
Passing: 7.5: Williams does have a keen ability to see the floor, make cross-court passes, and find the roller in the P&R game. Sometimes his passes can take a little while to get to their destination or are a bit off-target, though.
Dribbling: 7.5: Williams can handle the ball both in transition and the P&R game, which is incredible being as tall and long as he is. He will need to clean up some turnover issues, but more spacing in the NBA and less individual pressure to make a play should help him grow organically.
Defense: 7.5: Williams didn’t stuff the stat sheet on the defensive end with only 0.6 blocks per game and 0.9 steals per game, but if deflected passes were a statistic, then in conjunction, these numbers would provide a more holistic view of his defensive impact. As he transitions to the next level, we should see him improve altogether on this end.
Total rating: 44.5/60
15
Still just 18 and one of the youngest players in this draft class, Alperen Sengun has a tantalizing upside for teams in the late lottery. Sengun just completed one of the most productive seasons in European basketball history for a teenager – he averaged 19.2 points, 9.4 rebounds, 2.5 assists, 1.7 blocks, and 1.3 steals per game in 28 minutes per game. Sengun improved with every passing game and has stated that he believes “there are no limits for [him] to get better as a basketball player.”
Sengun is a bit of a throwback at the center position as he lives below the rim and brings a remarkably advanced repertoire of post moves to the table for such a young age. He can score off the dribble or as a pivot in the paint, and his playmaking intelligence and awareness have progressed quite nicely as well. He won’t wow you with strength or athleticism, but it’s rare to find a big man this technically refined at this age. Very few current NBA players have succeeded against European top-level competition the way Sengun has, and he won’t turn 19 until July 25, four days before the draft.
Strengths
• Full repertoire of advanced low-post moves – shot fakes, up-and-under, etc.
• Strength, balance, coordination, sneaky athleticism
• Comfortable scoring off the dribble on the move
• Soft finisher around the basket
• One of the best offensive rebounders in Europe; converted over 83% of putbacks
• Great basketball IQ and passing instincts – high playmaking upside
• Finds open shooters on the perimeters when doubled in the post
Weaknesses
• Doesn’t live above the rim, won’t be an elite pick-and-roll partner
• Hasn’t shown consistent range on the court, but 81% free-throw shooting is encouraging
• Too slow to defend smaller players on the perimeter, not strong enough to defend some big men in the post; defensive fit is questionable
Best Landing Spot
Charlotte Hornets. Sengun needs to land on a team with high-level playmakers and scorers in place, and the Hornets definitely have that to offer him. LaMelo Ball is the future of the franchise as a do-it-all lead guard, while Terry Rozier and Devonte’ Graham provide more backcourt fireworks. On this team, Sengun would be able to develop alongside other young players and become a high-level post scorer and secondary playmaker. The Hornets are lacking a developmental big man, and Sengun would fill that void.
Worst Landing Spot
Indiana Pacers. One comparison for Sengun that I’ve seen a lot of is Domantas Sabonis. The parallels make sense – both are finesse-based, high IQ big men who can contribute as high-level post scorers, offensive rebounders, and secondary playmakers. However, Sabonis lacks in the same areas as Sengun defensively and playing both on the floor at the same time would make minimal sense due to those defensive issues. Sabonis is the face of the Pacers, so this would be a weird fit.
Draft Range
Mid 1st 10-15
NBA Comparison
Domantas Sabonis. Sengun is a throwback big man who has a tremendous toolbox of low-post moves and makes his money around the painted area. Sabonis is a similar threat from inside, but in order for Sengun to become a high-level NBA player, he’ll need to advance his passing, three-point shooting, or defense. Sabonis has elevated all three and become an All-Star in short order; Sengun has the same type of upside.
Ratings Breakdown
Shooting: 7: In 29 games with Besiktas, Sengun made just 4 of 21 three-point attempts. However, his shooting mechanics are solid and as an 81.2% free-throw shooter on a large sample size, there’s enough to go on to think Sengun could develop a long-range game in the future. For now, his shooting is best exemplified by his elite scoring in the post.
Passing: 7: Per 36 minutes, Sengun averaged 3.2 assists to 3.0 turnovers. That’s not a great ratio, but I saw enough on film to think Sengun will be a high-level playmaker as a big man. With his feel for the game, court awareness, and precision, he should be able to open up opportunities for his teammates.
Dribbling: 8.5: It’s rare to find a player of Sengun’s size who looks this comfortable and confident handling the ball in the open floor. He’s very capable of scoring off the dribble either as the offensive initiator or on the short roll, and he can easily kick to open teammates off the dribble as well.
Defense: 5: I have serious concerns about how Sengun fits into the modern NBA defensively. He doesn’t quite have the strength to guard big men in the post or the speed to fly around the perimeter and close on open shooters. His fundamentals are sound, but with his physical profile, his defensive upside is surely capped.
Total rating: 43/60
16
A social media darling coming of high school, Sarife Cooper lived up to the online hype his freshman season at Auburn. Being the son of a prominent high school coach, Omar Cooper, Sharife Cooper displayed his elite passing ability and high basketball IQ in the high octane offense Bruce Pearl and the Auburn Tigers like to run. He put the world on notice when he scored 26 points and had 9 assists in his first game as a freshman against Alabama. What separates Cooper from other draft prospects is his court vision and passing ability being among the best in the country along with presumptive #1 overall pick Cade Cunningham. Cooper did miss three games with an ankle injury and while Cooper is a smaller guard, only listed at 6’1” and 165 lbs, he should find a home on an NBA roster because of his passing, dribbling, and quick burst.
Strengths
• uperb passing ability
• Fantastic court vision
• High basketball IQ
• Unmatched leadership for a younger player
• Can dribble in the open court and in tight spaces
• Great agility and quickness
Weaknesses
• Lacks size
• Inconsistent shooting
• Not great on defense
• Turnover prone
Best Landing Spot
Los Angeles Lakers. Cooper would be an excellent fit because he is one of the few things the Lakers need, a true pass-first point guard. Lebron James and Dennis Schroder handle most of the ball-handling responsibilities for Los Angeles, but with Cooper, an already dangerous Lakers team could be Finals favorites as Cooper would help get Lebron James and Anthony Davis more open scoring opportunities.
Worst Landing Spot
Brooklyn Nets. Brooklyn already has multiple points guards in Kyrie Irving and James Harden. The Nets also have other great guards who aren’t the two mentioned before in Tyler Johnson, Spencer Dinwiddie, Landry Shamet, and Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot. Brooklyn has a super crowded backcourt and if Cooper were to be drafted by them, he would have a hard time getting quality playing time and developing as a player. s.
Draft Range
Mid to late 1st
NBA Comparison
Rajon Rondo. Not only do Rondo and Cooper have the same height, as an NBA-small 6’1”, but both also have similar ways of playing the game of basketball. Both are pass-first pure point guards who are not great perimeter shooters. So they use their crafty ball-handling skills and high basketball IQ’s to give themselves open layups or make the correct pass to wide-open teammates. Sharife Cooper is the next coming of Rondo and it’s never a bad thing to be compared to a guy who has 2 rings and is revered as one of the smartest basketball players of all time.
Ratings Breakdown
Shooting: 4: This is one of the truly weak points in Cooper’s game. Cooper only shot 39.1% from the field and an even worse 22.8% from three. Cooper does shoot 82.5% from the free-throw line but definitely needs to get his other shooting percentages up if he wants to have a long career in the league
Passing: 9: Cooper has unquestioned court vision and passing ability for a guard his age. The only true issue with Cooper is that he is turnover happy. Cooper averaged 4.2 turnovers per game, which would make any coach and GM shake their head when they think about drafting him. However, he did also average 8.1 assists per game which put him at the top of this draft class.
Dribbling: 9: Cooper has great handles and an elite first step compared to other guards in his draft class. Cooper is able to get to the basket at will and is stopped only because he gets bottled up at the rim or he is double-teamed. He can handle any pressure thrown at him with poise and composure as well.
Hustle: 8: Cooper has the speed and quickness necessary to compete at the NBA level. He also has quick hands as he averaged 1.0 steal a game across his 12 games at Auburn. Cooper has an above-average motor and this is not one of the flaws of his game.
Defense: 5: Cooper is one of the smaller guards in his draft class and his size will definitely be exposed in the NBA. Cooper is a skinny 6’1” 165 with a short wingspan and little to no vertical presence meaning he struggles guarding bigger people. He will not be able to guard multiple positions at the next level unless he grows more and puts on more weight.
Total rating: 45/60
17
Tre Mann became everyone’s favorite player for the first game of the 2021 March Madness Tournament as he scored 14 points to help lead the Florida Gators to a 5 point overtime win over Virginia Tech. He then scored 19 points against Oral Roberts, but his draft stock rose tremendously as a result of his play during March Madness. During the regular season, Mann was tasked with leading the Gators’ offense after star forward Keyontae Johnson collapsed on the court against Florida State in early December. Mann stepped up to the challenge as he led the team with 16.0 PPG and 3.5 APG. Mann is a crafty and smooth shot creator who can also stroke it from the perimeter. He can do anything an NBA team would want and although he won’t blow you away with his athleticism, he should be a solid contributor to any team.
Strengths
• Can create shots for himself and others
• Solid handling ability
• Efficient shooting percentages
• Great step-back jump shot
• All around fundamentally good player
Weaknesses
• Solid athleticism, not elite
• Solid frame, could add more size
• Nothing outstanding or eye-popping about him, just solid all around
Best Landing Spot
Memphis Grizzlies. The Grizzlies need players who can create their own shots and shots for others. They also need players who can shoot three-pointers at an efficient rate as they rank in the bottom third in points from three-pointers and three-point percentage. Enter Tre Mann. Mann can fix these issues as he has the shot-making ability and three-point shooting efficiency to complement Ja Morant, Dillon Brooks, and Jonas Valancunas and make Memphis a serious playoff contender.
Worst Landing Spot
Houston Rockets. The Rockets have no shortage of shot-creating combo guard forwards who can handle and score the ball. They already have Kevin Porter Jr., Eric Gordon, John Wall, Dante Exum, Avery Bradley, and Danuel House Jr. on their roster so Tre Mann would have to compete with these players for playing time. It would be unrealistic to expect Tre Mann to beat all of these players out so his development would be halted as a result.
Draft Range
Middle 1st Round
NBA Comparison
C.J. McCollum. Mann has this kind of finesse and skill level that is rare to see out of a college prospect. He knows when to change speeds and direction and knows where the leverage of a defender is heading. He uses this to explode to the basket or to pull up for a mid-range jump shot like a certain right hand man in Portland. Mann is a score-first guard, like McCollum, and will look to make an impact and a lot of money if turns into the next C.J.
Ratings Breakdown
Shooting: 8: This is the part of the game that Mann can maintain a nice long NBA career for himself. Mann is not a player who will shoot the lights out like Steph Curry or Damian Lillard, but then again not many players can. Instead, Mann can hit open jump shots and jump shots he creates off the dribble or on a step back. Mann is efficient in his shooting and has a great shot selection.
Passing: 7: While he doesn’t have the vision of some of the other guards in his class or the NBA, Mann can still make difficult passes and the right pass if he needs to. He did lead his team in assists, but he also led the team in turnovers per game at 2.8 because he was handling the ball so much. Passing is not an area of concern and Mann can make passes an NBA needs to make.
Dribbling: 8: Mann’s handles help him when he plays in transition or when he is creating shots. He is an overall smooth player and his handles are no exception. He can change speeds and keep defenders off balance using his handles and quick shift ability. Mann plays and has a ball-handling ability similar to a C.J. McCollum, which is a good comparison for any future pro.
Hustle: 7: This is another area of the game that Mann could make a name for himself. Players who aren’t exceptional in any one area of the game can differentiate themselves from the competition by becoming hustle machines. Mann has never displayed an attitude that he takes plays off but he has also never shown a mamba mentality towards the game so his hustle is much like other players, average.
Defense: 7: Mann has never shown that he is a lockdown defender however he is no slouch on the defensive side of the ball either. While he only had 1 block during his sophomore year he also had 13 steals in 11 games. Mann also has the size necessary to guard the 1-3 positions in the NBA making him flexible and versatile for many teams.
Total rating: 45/60
18
Another young gun projected to go in the first round, Jaden Springer, had an impressive freshman year at Tennessee. Springer was the leading scorer for the Volunteers, a team ranked as high as number six in the nation during the year. Springer will still be 18 years old on draft night, which is always a pretty incredible thing.
Springer showed some glimpses of brilliance throughout the season as both a scorer and playmaker. He shot well from the field and from behind the arc at 46.7% and 43.5%, respectively.
Jaden’s most glaring issues are his lack of above-the-rim athleticism and slow first step off the dribble. He projects much more as a facilitating, strong guard that can finish at the rim and run the offense. Initially, he may struggle in the league at the point guard position, but he can gradually work into it since he has experience as a combo guard.
Strengths
• Strong finisher through contact.
• Efficient from the field.
• He plays within himself and doesn’t overextend.
• He finds the open man well but not quite an elite playmaker
• A solid on-ball defender with the ability to guard the 1-3 positions.
Weaknesses
• Lacks athleticism.
• Shooting can be sporadic and lacks consistency. Will need to develop range as well.
Best Landing Spot
New York Knicks. The Knicks need guards desperately, and Springer fits this spot like a perfectly sized glove. Considering Jaden projects as a combo guard, the Knicks can stick him in there with several different types of lineups, and this versatility will inevitably help both parties.
Worst Landing Spot
Boston Celtics. Boston already has its hands full with guards, and it is the type of place where Jaden could get a bit lost in the chaos. The organization is in somewhat of a frenzy as Ainge stepped away as president of basketball operations only for head coach Brad Stevens to take over.
Draft Range
Mid-First Round. Springer could go as high as 15 or 16 and as low as 22 or 23. His range will be dictated by the draft order more than anything because he is a player that will get drafted based on team fit more than player upside.
NBA Comparison
Kyle Lowry. Much like Lowry, Springer is a strong guard who knows how to use his body. Springer has a lot of playmaking upside and could turn into that type of a player for a team. Both Lowry and Springer have very high basketball IQs, and Springer will continue to get better through age and experience.
Ratings Breakdown
Shooting: 7. In this scarce case, what you see on the stat sheet versus the reality, is a bit different than you might think. Springer is a solid shooter at times, but consistency, range, and stiffness/lack of rhythm are all issues that need correction. Despite his high three-point shooting percentage, there wasn’t much volume for the law of averages to take its course. His mid-range pull-up game is strong, but players will sag off of him if he can’t consistently take and hit the three.
Passing: 7.5. Springer has shown some promise as a passer and playmaker and being that he is only 18 years old, there is still plenty of time to continue to develop.
Dribbling: 8. Jaden has an excellent handle which should translate to the NBA effortlessly. His ability to get into the lane without turning the ball over much is a massive benefit for him. Also, Jaden’s intelligence out of the pick and roll is a bright spot and still has a higher ceiling.
Hustle: 9. Springer works hard on defense, averaging 1.2 steals per game at the guard position against great competition. He also was a reasonably decent rebounder at the college level averaging 3.5 rebounds per game.
Defense: 8.5. Springer moves his feet well in the half-court and uses his length to get his hands in on digs and opponents being lazy with the ball. His strength, size, and defensive versatility projects well at the next level.
Total rating: 49/60
19
Corey Kispert played four years for Gonzaga and got coached up by one of the best in the business, Mark Few. There’s a lot to be excited about if you’re an NBA team in the mid-to-late first round and Kispert falls to you. He had an excellent college career with many accolades.
Kispert is a lights-out shooter, and anyone who watches basketball knows this. It should come as no surprise, but that’s not all he does, though. Kispert also is an excellent athlete with a high vertical jump, especially off one foot, and a strong finisher through contact around the rim. He should certainly be able to find some time in the NBA.
Kispert will have to make some improvements to fully assimilate to the NBA game, though. The first deficiency to resolve is that he must get quicker laterally. Kispert is a small forward, so he will be going up against guys who are his size but lightning-quick, and as of right now, Kispert would struggle to keep them in front. The other glaring area of improvement is his inability to isolate and create shots for himself. Depending on what team he goes to and how they choose to use him, this may not be as important, but regardless, it’s something he will have to get better at to avoid hitting his ceiling early on in his career.
Strengths
• An absolute sniper from behind the arc off of movement or C&S (catch-and-shoot).
• Shooting range projects to the next level on Day 1.
• Athleticism. Kispert has a very solid vertical.
• Finishing. Kispert takes contact and finishes nicely off of straight-line drives.
Weaknesses
• Isolation game. At the next level, his game will soar if he can eventually become self-reliant on getting his shot.
• ICraftiness around the rim will need to improve to make sure defenders honor him off-the-dribble at the next level.
• Lateral quickness
Best Landing Spot
Golden State Warriors. I am enamored at the thought of Kispert, Curry, and Thompson, when he’s healthy again, running around the floor shooting at an insane clip. The Warriors should try to make this happen. They still have Draymond at the 4 and Wiseman at the 5, and I wouldn’t be shocked to see Wiggins and Oubre Jr. departing soon. Therefore, they will need more wing players. Kispert is that answer.
Worst Landing Spot
None. Every single team needs a Corey Kispert. He’s a high IQ basketball player who can shoot exceptionally well, and that is valued in the NBA.
Draft Range
Mid-First Round. Kispert is another example of where a team fit trumps potential. What I mean by that is if he is the right fit for a team in the mid-to-late first round, he may get snagged ahead of someone with perceivably more upside. His floor draft range could fall into the 20s, though, depending on several variables.
NBA Comparison
Doug McDermott. Kispert and McDermott are strikingly similar in that they move well without the ball, shoot lights-out both standing still and off of screens and cuts, play the same position, and are the exact sizes. The main differences as seniors in college are that McDermott had a strong post-game with a solid fade away, while Kispert does not have that in his arsenal. However, Kispert is probably quicker and more bouncy.
Ratings Breakdown
Shooting: 9.5: Everyone knows Kispert is carrying a legalized weapon when he steps on the floor: his right arm. Long, tall shooters translate very well to today’s NBA, and Kispert is no different.
Passing: 6: The best way to evaluate Kispert as a passer is off of P&R’s because he isn’t much of a creator or playmaker; therefore, we don’t see much passing besides that.
Dribbling: 6.5: Kispert struggles with self-creating and being the ball-handler in P&R (pick-and-roll) scenarios. He has a high tendency to turn the ball over and take less than ideal shots if forced into these. This limits his upside as an isolation player.
Hustle: 9: Corey moves around on the floor. Very rarely does he take plays off or not give it his all. He sprints off of screens and gets himself open. On defense, he is a solid rebounder and decent on-ball defender.
Defense: 6.5: Kispert’s head knows where to be on the floor, but sometimes his body cannot follow. His lateral quickness will be a complicated issue to overcome in the NBA with guys who are much quicker, faster, and stronger than the guys in the West Coast Conference.
Total rating: 46.5/60
20
People have been watching Josh Christopher terrorize the competition on Instagram and Youtube for years and last season he proved he could play in college and potentially the pros as he scored 14.3 PPG and snatched 4.7 RPG at Arizona State. It was a shame not many people saw him play because this is one freshman who had freaky athleticism and can hang with some of the best players in the country. Christopher loves to put his head down and finish at the rim himself. He can also make tough mid-range jump shots and handles the ball with an attacking mindset. “JAYGUP” has a style of play similar to his idol Kobe Bryant and has the athleticism and mindset to match. Unfortunately, Christopher was sidelined with a back injury which eventually ended his season. Whoever picks this guy is getting a hardworking and talented player.
Strengths
• Has the ability to finish at the rim on anyone
• Consistent mid-range jump shot
• Aggressive mindset
• Freak athlete
• Quick first step and second jump
• Only 19 years old
Weaknesses
• Needs improvement with his 3 point shot
• Needs improvement with passing
• Has tunnel vision when driving to the hoop
• Can play out of control
Best Landing Spot
Houston Rockets: Josh Christopher is not ready to play now on an NBA roster. Plain and simple. Despite all of his athleticism, Christopher needs to develop his shooting and handling if he wants to become an elite guard in the NBA. So going to Houston would be beneficial to him because he will get to learn from veteran guards who play like him in John Wall and Dante Exum and he could receive some quality playing time later in the season since the Rockets are among the worst teams in the league.
Worst Landing Spot
New York Knicks. The Knicks have no shortage of guys who prefer to drive instead of shooting from the perimeter. Julius Randle, R.J. Barrett, Immanuel Quickley, and Reggie Bullock all love to drive to the rim. The Knicks need outside shooting and that is just not the skill set Josh Christopher has.
Draft Range
Late 1st round
NBA Comparison
Russell Westbrook. Russell Westbrook is in a league of his own with his athleticism, but Josh Christopher is not far off. Both attack the rim with ferocity and both can’t shoot from the outside very well. Christopher also possesses a hungry mentality that allows him to play bigger than he is, akin to Westbrook. Westbrook is a better passer than Christopher, but Christopher is still very young and will have time to develop that part of his game.
Ratings Breakdown
Shooting: 5: Christopher really needs to improve his shooting. He shoots a decent 43.2% from the field, but only shoots the three at 30.5% which limits his offensive output. He does shoot free throws at an 80.0% clip which is decent, but his other shooting percentages are fairly inefficient and in an era of basketball where shooting efficiency is key, this does not bode well for Christopher’s draft stock.
Passing: 6: This is another area of the game where Christopher needs development. Too many times Christopher gets tunnel vision when driving to the rim, however, he can score once he gets close since he is so talented and athletic. But the NBA is full of great athletes, so if Christopher wants to become a household NBA guard he needs to learn to pass to open shooters or big men. Christopher has shown that he can pass to shooters or big men but if given the choice between shooting himself or passing, he will choose shooting it himself 6 or 7 times out of 10.
Dribbling: 7: Christopher has shown he can dribble in the open court. He can also create his own shot off the dribble. His handles aren’t anything special, but they are serviceable to an NBA-level guard. Turnovers aren’t an issue with Christopher either as he only averaged 1.7 turnovers per game over 16 games.
Hustle: 10: Christopher showed his junkyard dog mentality every time he stepped on the court. He had 1.5 steals per game and it felt like he was everywhere on defense. He was a pest and was always looking to disrupt the opposing team. He had a similar mindset on offense where sometimes he played out of control, but most of the time he wanted to attack the rim with ferocity like a heat-seeking missile. This dude has a killer drive and motor.
Defense: 8: Christopher will be able to guard multiple positions at the next level. With his 6’5” 215 frame and freakish agility, speed,quickness and a 6’8” wingspan, Christopher can be projected to guard positions 1-3 in the NBA and might even be able to guard some small 4’s if he needs to. Christopher also has a relentless attitude and will often reach and look for steals causing him to get into foul trouble rather quickly.
Total rating: 43/60
21
Usman Garuba is a 19-year-old power forward that currently plays for Real Madrid in the EuroLeague. Garuba recently made playoff history in the EuroLeague by becoming the youngest player to record a double-double in the playoffs. He’s an enticing prospect who is leap-frogging up the draft board.
Garuba has an excellent motor, massive wingspan, and a mind bogglingly high defensive IQ for only being a teenager. His ability to improvise when his team’s defense breaks down and contest or block shots at the rim is unparalleled for prospects his age. His lateral quickness at 6-foot-8 is another huge positive that will make NBA development coaches very excited to work with him at the next level.
Usman’s most glaring issue is his inability to shoot consistently. His percentage from behind the arc isn’t terrible, but his mechanics scare me a bit. He will need to get in the gym and spend countless hours correcting this, and if he can do that, then his ceiling as a prospect will increase.
Strengths
• Wingspan. Usman has a massive 7-foot-2 wingspan that helps make up for being slightly undersized at his position.
• Defensive IQ. He knows when to improvise defensively and abandon his man to protect the rim. He has an exceptional ability to stay vertical on shot contests.
• Motor. Usman has an unstoppable motor, and his effort plays are unmatched.
• Lateral Quickness. For someone that has Usman’s height and wingspan, he moves his feet laterally exceptionally well. At only 19, he shows the potential to guard the 3-5 positions in the NBA at a high level.
• Driving. Relatively strong driver off the dribble when defenders closeout.
Weaknesses
• Extremely raw player. He’s not a player who will likely play right away. If an NBA team has strong development coaches that they believe in, then this is an excellent pick in the late-first round.
• Shooting. He does not display much shooting consistency or strong mechanics. Frequently, the ball looks like it’s being pushed instead of a nice, high-arching release.
• Finishing around the rim. Usman actually can get into the paint off the dribble very well for a raw,19-year-old prospect, but finishing can be challenging. He gets blocked a lot and struggles against bigger defenders, which there will be a whole bunch of in the NBA.
Best Landing Spot
Memphis Grizzlies. I love this spot for Usman because he can maybe secure a few minutes here and there behind Jonas Valanciunas and Jaren Jackson Jr.
Worst Landing Spot
New York Knicks. This is tough for me because part of me thinks that Garuba and Thibodeau would be a match made in Heaven. Coach Thibs loves high IQ, high motor players who are willing to scrap and play defense, and Usman is all of those things and then some. However, there are just so many forwards and centers in New York, and he could end up being stashed at the end of the bench, which is not what you want if you’re Garuba.
Draft Range
18-22. I don’t think anyone in the lottery will take a flier on Usman, but it certainly won’t be long after that he goes off the board.
NBA Comparison
Ben Wallace. Yes, Usman has shades of Wallace. Wallace was the first player to pop in my head because he was also an undersized center who could protect the rim, was a rim-runner, and had an incredibly high motor. While it’s not likely that Garuba will be a 4x Defensive Player of the Year in the NBA, there are some resemblances. If he fills out his frame and continues to mature and develop, nothing is off the table.
Ratings Breakdown
Shooting: 4. Garuba could become a passable shooter in the NBA, but that day isn’t today or tomorrow. There is a lot to be desired in his shooting mechanics, and it will take years of work for him to play as a stretch-4. With that being said, if he ever gets to that point, it will be terrifying.
Passing: 6.5 Usman is a surprisingly good passer for being a power forward/center. He won’t be a playmaker in the league, but in the NBA that is so P&R-heavy, he will be serviceable in making the extra pass out of the P&R. He also can pass well out of the post. Usman always keeps his head up in the post to see if anyone is digging down or sagging off their man to help.
Dribbling: 6. He can handle the ball a bit and put it on the deck when defenders close out hard. In the post, he makes sure to keep his head up and look for teammates when he’s backing a defender down.
Hustle: 9.5. Garuba’s entire game footage is filled with unbelievable hustle plays. There’s an argument that he should lead this sub-category out of all of the prospects in the draft. In addition to his hustle, he’s an above-average athlete, and there are glimpses where we realize he may not be at his athletic ceiling yet.
Defense: 9.5. Projects as an elite rim protector. Usman has an exceptional wingspan and reach. All of that combined with his athleticism and motor and he projects to be a considerable impact defender in the NBA.
Total rating: 44.5/60
22
Isaiah Jackson is a 6-foot-10 power forward/center who just finished his freshman year at Kentucky. NBA teams love drafting Kentucky big men because they know Coach Calipari expedites their growth and helps enhance their basketball IQ. In this case, Jackson couldn’t have picked a better school, despite this last year being one of Kentucky’s worse in many years. He still learned a lot, got some valuable experience, and received great coaching.
Jackson is a bouncy, speedy, long monster. He has to put on some more weight to avoid getting moved a lot at the next level, but there is no denying his freakish athleticism. On defense, Isaiah blocks and contests everything and can move his feet pretty well if he has to switch to a guard. His rebounding understanding is strong, and improvements in his physique will only heighten his ceiling as an NBA player. Jackson will not be much of an isolation or shooting threat as far as projectability goes, but that does not mean he won’t maximize offensive opportunities through the P&R, offensive putbacks, lobs, and fast breaks.
Strengths
• Length. Jackson contests and blocks shots at an elite level.
• Lateral Quickness. Jackson moves his feet laterally reasonably well at times and could project as a solid P&R defender in a P&R-heavy league.
• Great athlete. Jackson plays above-the-rim on both ends of the floor and has some explosiveness and speed at 6-foot-10.
• Fantastic Rebounder. Isaiah should clean up on the glass in the NBA if he puts on a few pounds.
Weaknesses
• Raw offensive player. He projects to be a defensive-impact player with a high motor.
• Frame. Jackson needs to put on a decent amount of weight on his frame. At 6-foot-10, he only weighs 206 pounds.
• Shooting. Jackson is not a shooter by any means. His offensive capabilities are lob-catching, the occasional straight line drive, and finishing around the rim.
Best Landing Spot
Boston Celtics. Jackson would be great in Boston because of his motor and defensive upside. Stevens will want to continue instilling a culture of effort in Boston, and Jackson will get minutes solely because of that. The C’s also lack big men and could use someone who will protect the rim.
Worst Landing Spot
Los Angeles Lakers. I don’t see Jackson getting much time on the floor here, and while it might work out long-term, he needs to see the floor now. Anthony Davis, Montrezl Harrell, and Andre Drummond all would project to play ahead. LeBron likely will want the Lakers to nab another established big in free agency if Harrell or Drummond aren’t in Laker yellow next year.
Draft Range
Mid-first round. Jackson could go anywhere from 14-20.
NBA Comparison
Richaun Holmes. Both Holmes and Jackson are incredibly bouncy, have great shot-blocking anticipation, strong defenders, and struggle shooting the ball. Holmes scores off of offensive rebounding effort, lobs, dropdowns, and on the fast break, much like Jackson. They are the same size, and Jackson projects to be this type of player. They have excellent coordination for their size and finish very well around the rim, both above it and below it.
Ratings Breakdown
Shooting: 3: Jackson will likely never be a shooter, and that’s perfectly fine for his game. There are plenty of NBA big men who still don’t shoot much.
Passing: 6.5: Jackson is an excellent touch passer out of the short corners, and in the P&R. His passing IQ is superior for a big man.
Dribbling: 5.5: Jackson can handle the ball a bit, despite being a power forward/center. Every once in a while, he will make a straight-line drive off the dribble or take a couple of dribbles in transition.
Hustle: 9: Isaiah’s hustle leads to offensive rebounds, putbacks, and shot contests that wouldn’t otherwise exist. He’s an energizer bunny and will be great for a team off the bench from the get-go.
Defense: 9.5; Jackson is an enticing prospect, especially on the defensive end. He has an incredible shot-blocking ability and game-changing athleticism.
Total rating: 43/60
23
Jared Butler is one of the most decorated collegiate athletes in this year’s draft. He most recently won a National Championship with Baylor and was the Big 12 Player of the Year over the freshman sensation, and consensus number one overall pick, Cade Cunningham.
Butler displays a high basketball IQ, exceptional shooting, terrific isolation ability, and strong handles. This combination makes the 6-foot-3 combo guard a real threat at any level. There are a few things that concern NBA teams at the next level, though. He doesn’t have explosive athleticism around the rim, so he will have to create a crafty lay-up package around the rim, continue improving his floater, and work on his change of speed with the ball.
Strengths
• Shooting. Butler can shoot it off of C&S at a very high percentage, as well as off the dribble. He shots 41.6% from behind the arc and has the range to project to the next level.
•On-ball defense. Jared straps down on defense. He understands how to utilize angles to cut off defenders, has super quick hands and fast feet. As long as he puts more muscle on his frame, he will guard both 1’s and 2’s at the next level very effectively.
•Playmaking. Butler is an established playmaker and projects as an outstanding P&R player at the next level. His decision-making, shooting, and ball-handling make him tough to guard in isolations and the P&R.
Weaknesses
• Explosiveness. Butler will need to work on his overall explosiveness and the ability to switch gears with the ball. Right now, he tends to have one gear, and it is much more predictable.
• Size. Butler is 6-foot-3 with a 6-foot-4 wingspan, which isn’t undersized for a point guard, but as a combo guard, Butler will need to put on more muscle to counteract the height difference when he plays off-ball.
Best Landing Spot
San Antonio Spurs. The Spurs and Coach Popovich love solid, fundamental basketball players who can preferably shoot. Butler is a prototype Spurs player, and this would be an ideal landing spot for him.
Worst Landing Spot
Boston Celtics. The C’s need a big man, and that’s no mystery. They have a ton of guards and wings, and Butler being thrown into that pool of players will not help either party get what they want. I highly doubt that they will take a guard here with Brad Stevens at the helm, but you never know.
Draft Range
Mid-first round. Butler projects as a future NBA starter, and it’s shocking to me that some mocks have him going late in the first round. He could potentially be a lottery pick if there’s a good team fit.
NBA Comparison
George Hill. Butler and Hill are very similar, in my opinion. They both shoot the ball exceptionally well, both off the C&S and off the dribble. Neither will rise up and throw down a nasty dunk, but their games are rock solid and consistent.
Ratings Breakdown
Shooting: 9. Butler is a fantastic shooter. He shot 41.6% from behind the arc and averaged 1.51 points per C&S attempt. His ability to shoot off the dribble in P&R scenarios and off of C&S is superb.
Passing: 8. Jared spent a lot of time both on and off the ball at Baylor and was fluid in that way. When Butler was playmaking off of isolations or off of the P&R, he displayed a strong ability to find the open man when needed.
Dribbling: 9. Butler has one of the best handles in the draft this year. He will immediately project as a primary ball-handler at the next level.
Hustle: 7.5. This score is a bit lower solely because I tie rebounding into hustle. By no means is he a lousy rebounder, but due to athletic and size limitations, he doesn’t project to grab many boards in the NBA.
Defense: 8. Butler has quick hands and feet, moves well laterally, and understands angles. While he doesn’t project as a lockdown defender in the NBA, that doesn’t mean he won’t be a strong defender.
Total rating: 50.5/60
24
Chris Duarte is one of those rare JUCO transfers that end up impressing scouts enough to look past age and other arbitrary measurements. Duarte is a sure-fire first-round draft pick, and his combination of size, skill, athleticism, and shooting is lethal.
Duarte only spent two years at Oregon but made the most of it, averaging 12.9 points in his first year and then, took off like a rocketship in year two, by averaging 17.1 points per game. Duarte is somewhat of a late bloomer, but that massive jump in just one year proves that his game is still evolving,, and therefore, his age should not negatively impact potential NBA suitors very much.
Strengths
• Shooting. Duarte is one of the most established shooters in the country. His effective shooting percentage was 63.3%, which is exceptionally high for a guard. In addition, he can shoot terrifyingly well off of C&S or off the dribble in isolation or fast-break scenarios.
• Athleticism. Duarte is sneaky athletic. He moves at a controlled pace around the floor, but when it’s time for him to be explosive, he can dunk on someone.
• Defense. Duarte projects as a solid wing defender with quick enough feet to stay in front of quick guards. Also, he is a spectacular rotational defender who knows where to be and has the speed to get there, even if slightly out of position.
• Playmaking. Duarte projects as someone who can score on or off the ball with his shooting and excellent finishing ability. He will need to improve his passing, but besides that, he is a terrific offensive player.
Weaknesses
• Age. Duarte does not have time on his side like some of these 18 and 19-year-oldprospects. Luckily, he is one of the most NBA-ready prospects in this year’s draft, so it may not matter too much.
• Passing. Duarte can score at a high clip and could translate as an isolation scorer in the NBA because of his handle and shooting, but he struggles with passing accuracy at times. If he can develop a higher passing IQ, then he will have an extremely well-rounded offensive game.
Best Landing Spot
Golden State Warriors. Can you imagine Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, and Chris Duarte running around, shooting threes together? I can. It’s in my dreams. Steph and Klay are both in their 30’s, and they need a “win now” player that can shoot, defend, and has winning DNA. Duarte fits that mold.
Worst Landing Spot
Duarte does not have a “worst landing spot”, per se. He will want to end up on a team that isn’t going to play raw prospects ahead of him, and also, preferably a team that is a contender to make the playoffs. Besides that, every other team needs a 3-and-D guy who can create and shoot at a remarkably high clip.
Draft Range
Mid-first round. If it weren’t for his age, Duarte would be a lottery pick. There’s no doubt in my mind. Possibly, he may have even squeaked into the Top 10. The truth is that most lottery teams will pass because of age and perceived ceiling. Although I’m much more optimistic on Duarte’s ceiling, he will likely go in the mid-to-late first round.
NBA Comparison
Klay Thompson. Duarte openly stated that Klay was a player he models his game after. While Duarte’s ceiling may not be as high as Klay’s, he can still be an incredibly impactful 2-guard in the NBA.
Ratings Breakdown
Shooting: 9.5. Duarte is one of the best shooters, if not the best, in this draft class. He isn’t just a spot-up shooter or a catch-and-shoot shooter, as he can also shoot exceedingly well off the dribble and in isolation situations.
Passing: 5.5. There are many big men that can pass better than Duarte, and with his game, he will need to improve this immediately. Passing in the NBA is essential, and now, even bigs are expected to be solid passers.
Dribbling: 8. Duarte handles the ball very well for a 2-guard. He can utilize his handle in the P&R and isolations.
Hustle: 8. Duarte makes a lot of hustle plays on defense and relocates as a shooter well on offense. All of that takes effort, and Duarte certainly has that.
Defense: 9. Duarte is a great improvisational defender. His closeouts to contest shots and to drop in on the weak side to help blown coverage is insane. He also jumps passing lanes as well as I’ve ever seen a collegiate player. Perhaps he could be a slightly better on-ball defender, but that’s just nit-picking.
Total rating: 49/60
25
James Bouknight follows in a long lineage of great UCONN guards. First, it was Kemba Walker, then it was Shabazz Napier, and now it’s James Bouknight. His main claim to fame is that he can flat out score. Bouknight had 40 points on 54.2% shooting in an overtime lost to #9 Creighton and averaged 18.7 PPG on 44.7% shooting throughout the season. He has an elite pull-up mid-range jump shot and can finish against bigger and smaller defenders at the rim. Bouknight has a silky smooth handle and finesse to his game that reminds me a lot of Jaylen Brown or Zach Levine. Bouknight is the very definition of a bucket getter and will make any NBA team that drafts him very happy.
Strengths
• Can finish at the rim against bigger defenders
• Great pull-up mid-range jump shot
• Silky smooth handles
• Can create his own shot
• Quick first step
• Can elevate to dunk or grab rebounds
Weaknesses
• Inconsistent 3 point shooting
• Not a great passer/ distributor
• Needs the ball in his hand to be effective
• Can force unnecessary shots
• Can slack off on defense
Best Landing Spot
Washington Wizards. The Wizards need players who can put the basketball through the hoop as only two players on their roster average more than 20.0 PPG, Bradley Beal, and Russell Westbrook. After those two, the drop-off in scoring is significant as the next top scorer on the team is Thomas Bryant who averages a respectable 14.3 PPG. Enter James Bouknight. Bouknight plays similarly to Bradley Beal so he can learn under one of the top scorers in the league. Bouknight also can score in the league now so him alongside Bradley Beal and Russel Westbrook would create a trio that no one in the league would want to defend.
Worst Landing Spot
Indiana Pacers. The Pacers already have a crowded backcourt full of young players with Malcolm Brogdon, T.J. McConnell, Aaron Holiday, and Caris Levert. All of those players also have long-term contracts with the team meaning they aren’t going anywhere for a while. Bouknight would have to compete for playing time with all of those players and while he can beat them out, he would then have to share playing time with them which would stagnate his development.
Draft Range
Middle 1st Round
NBA Comparison
DeMar DeRozan. Both are pure scorers of the basketball who like to slash to the rim or pull up for a mid-range jump shot instead of shooting the three ball. Bouknight is probably better on the offensive end of the court, as he is a little more athletic and has better handles, but DeRozan is definitely better on the defense. Both can also pass and rebound the ball if they need to, but scoring is their M.O.
Ratings Breakdown
Shooting: 6: While he does have a great mid-range jump shot and can finish at the rim against elite shot blockers, the glaring issue with Bouknight is his three-point shooting. He only shot 29.3% from three which is a drastic drop off from his 44.7% from the field and 77.8% from the free-throw line. Bouknight can make very difficult shots and he is young at 20 years old so he has time to develop his perimeter shot.
Passing: 6: Bouknight needs to improve his passing if he wants people to consider him a top guard. He only averaged 1.8 APG and that’s because he tries to create his own shot much more than creating shots for others. Bouknight is not a super selfish player, but he does need to improve his passing ability and become a better passer.
Dribbling: 8: Bouknight has a silky smooth handle that not many other players possess. Bouknight can change his speed whenever he wants and can change directions in a blink of an eye. He has devastating crossover and a great first step, and all of that makes defending him a nightmare. The only issue is that he tends to over-dribble causing him to turn over the ball. Bouknight did average 2.8 turnovers per game which is not bad per se but it’s also not what you want from a ball handler.
Hustle: 7: Bouknight’s hustle on the offensive side is outstanding. He can push the ball down the floor as fast as any other player in this draft and he wants to chase down rebounds so he can push in transition. Bouknight does not possess a limitless motor and his hustle on the defensive side is not as stellar. More on Bouknight’s defense later.
Defense: 7: And now we’re at later. Bouknight’s defense, oh boy. This is a confusing one because Bouknight has all of the physical attributes necessary to defend in the NBA. He’s 6’5” 190 with a 6’9” wingspan, so he should be able to defend most guards in the league. He is an average defender to begin with and a borderline great defender when he’s locked in. The issue is that he’s not always locked in on defense. Bouknight can sometimes fall asleep and get beat either off the ball or on a backdoor cut which shouldn’t happen to such a talented athlete.
Total rating: 41/60
26
Being the younger brother of Kings forward and rising star Marvin Bagley III is not easy to live up to, but Marcus Bagley is making a name for himself. Playing alongside other NBA draft prospects in Josh Christopher and Remy Martin, Marcus Bagley established himself as a legitimate scoring threat for that Arizona State team. Bagley was able to be the outside threat and rebound workhorse the Sun Devils needed as he totaled 10.8 PPG and 6.2 RPG. Bagley did however miss three games in the middle of the season with a left calf strain injury. Bagley posted solid offensive efficiency and any NBA interested in a forward who can rebound, defend, and shoot from 3 should be interested in Marcus Bagley.
Strengths
• Chairman of the boards (Great at rebounding)
• Solid offensive efficiency
• Genuine deep shooting threat
• Can elevate and finish at the rim against bigger defenders
Weaknesses
• Raw fundamentals
• Not laterally quick
• Not a great ball-handler
Best Landing Spot
Orlando Magic. Bagley plays more like a guard than a forward. Even though he is 6’8” 215, over half of his attempted shots were 3 pointers. That fits in with the Magic who ranked in the bottom 5 of the league in three-point shooting percentage but plays at a 98.9 pace. The other forwards on the team, like Dwayne Bacon and Otto Porter Jr., can not make three-pointers so Bagley should see plenty of playing time in a league where the three-pointer is so heavily emphasized.
Worst Landing Spot
Detroit Pistons. The style the Pistons play with is kryptonite to the style and skill set of Bagley. Detroit plays at one of the slowest paces in the NBA at a 97.6 pace and also ranked in the bottom 10 of three-point shots attempted. Bagley likes to run the floor in transition and attempt multiple threes per game so if Detroit were to pick Bagley, that relationship would end in a messy breakup.
Draft Range
Late 1st Round to Early 2nd Round
NBA Comparison
Jeff Green. Bagley’s role in the NBA will most likely be of a 3 and D guy. Any NBA team could use guys who can shoot and defend like Bagley. And Jeff Green has been a great 3 and D guy since he entered the league in 2007. Both are able to play bigger than they are on both offense and defense and both can make the wide open 3-pointer their playmakers hand them on a silver platter. Both will never be the main scoring option on a contending team, but they will do the gritty work necessary to a winning organization.
Ratings Breakdown
Shooting: 8: This is Bagley’s strong suit and why he will have a long career in the NBA. 34.7% three-point shooting on the season might look pedestrian, but when you factor that his three worst three-point shooting games were when he was playing injured, you can do the math to see that he shot a higher than NBA league average 37.7% on threes. Bagley has a smooth shooting form and complements his three-point shooting with a decent 38.7% shooting from the rest of the court. He does struggle a little from the free-throw line as he only shoots at a 71.9% clip but overall, Bagley can shoot at the NBA level.
Passing: 6: While not necessarily a ball hog, Bagley should improve his passing if he wants to play in the NBA. Too often, Bagley would choose to take contested three-point shots over passing to his teammates. Bagley has a gunslinger mentality to shooting and that would sometimes hurt his team as open teammates would be standing there twiddling their thumbs as Bagley shot another three.
Dribbling: 6: Bagley has solid handles for a forward. He has shown the ability to handle in the open court, but handling the ball is not his strong suit. He can’t change direction very fast as he is more of a straight line downhill dribbler. He doesn’t create his own shot off the dribble well and his fundamental basketball skills are very raw, which is typical of a 19-year-old freshman.
Hustle: 8: Bagley has a good to borderline great motor to his game. Bagley is always chasing down rebounds and that shows in the stat sheet as he averaged 6.2 RPG. He is always trying to push the ball in transition and runs the floor well. Hustle and desire are not a question for this guy.
Defense: 7: Bagley has everything necessary to defend in the NBA. Defense is all about the physical metrics, desire, and basketball IQ. And standing at 6’8” 215 with bunnies, a good to great motor, and an understanding of where he should be on defense, Bagley has everything necessary to be a great defender. He’s not a great defender though. Bagley can be taken off the dribble fairly easily and can not block shots or steal the ball, as he only had 0.4 blocks per game and 0.8 steals per game average throughout the season. While not a liability of defense, Bagley is far from a lockdown defender.
Total rating: 42/60
27
Deuce McBride is a sophomore combo guard out of West Virginia. McBride has winning DNA and outstanding leadership qualities that Coach Bob Huggins certainly valued. McBride is a pure shooter both off the dribble and in catch-and-shoot situations, evidenced by his 41.4% average from behind the arc. His on-ball defense and tenacity are rocketing his draft stock up into the late-first round. Deuce is an explosive athlete who can catch alley-oop dunks off back-screens or in transition. His speed in transition will also be another huge asset as he looks for an NBA home. McBride’s size ultimately will keep him from being a lottery pick, but there will be an NBA team who will see the merit and upside in picking him.
Strengths
• Athlete. Deuce is explosive and can get off the floor. His athleticism on defense allows him to harass defenders, and offensively, he can get his shot off because he’s a “leg shooter” off the dribble.
• Shooting. Deuce can shoot it. He excelled off the dribble and on C&S opportunities. He likely projects to be a P&R threat at the next level.
• Defense. Deuce is a tenacious on-ball defender. He reminds me of Patrick Beverly on that end of the floor, except he is longer and taller.
Weaknesses
• Finishing. McBride tends to “get small” inside the paint, despite being a mega-athlete. He needs to learn how to utilize a floater, attack angles, and create contact while staying on balance. He’s explosive enough to finish at a high level but just does not constantly execute.
• Size. One thing that drops McBride’s draft stock is his size. However, there are still some players in today’s NBA that can be effective at 6-foot-2 and under, like Eric Bledsoe and Patrick Beverly, as well as others.
Best Landing Spot
Sacramento Kings. The Kings had a pathetic and abysmal defense this year. It was hard to watch. They need somebody who will come in and strap up defensively. That will be the best spot for McBride, as he will undoubtedly get some minutes to switch things up and hopefully inspire some defense in a lazy Kings team.
Worst Landing Spot
Brooklyn Nets. I just don’t see the match here. They already have many guards, and there wouldn’t be much of an opportunity for McBride to prove his worth here.
Draft Range
Late-first, early-second rounder. Deuce’s draft stock has been on the rise, and it’s no mystery why that’s the case. He’s a tenacious defender on the ball and has terrific vertical athleticism. His shooting and scoring upside will make him a late-first-round pick more likely than not, but I never count out NBA teams and their tendency to draft-and-stash overseas players later in the draft.
NBA Comparison
Patrick Beverly with more of an offensive game. Deuce is an energizer bunny, and he harasses guards on-ball on the defensive end. His ability to rise and shoot effectively off the dribble and be a great ball-handler gives him more of an opportunity to get consistent minutes at the next level.
Ratings Breakdown
Shooting: 8.5. Deuce shows solid mechanics and fluid rhythm in his shooting. He shot a little over 41% from behind the arc, and that will help him see the floor at the next level.
Passing: 7.5. Deuce is a great transition passer. He always has his head up and looks for leakers and bigs rim-running. He could work a bit on passing out of the P&R as that will get him significant minutes.
Dribbling: 8.5. McBride handles the ball well and does not turn it over much. He almost had a 3:1 assist-to-turnover ratio, which is ideal for a point guard.
Hustle: 9.5. Deuce plays harassing defense and provides copious amounts of energy. In addition, he is a leader physically and vocally.
Defense: 9. This number would be a ten if Deuce made fewer mental mistakes. However, when he’s defending on the ball, and he doesn’t overplay the steal, he is the best defender in the draft.
Total rating: 51/60
28
Henry is a 6-foot-6 small forward out of Michigan State. After three years at MSU, Henry looks to make the jump to the NBA level. Henry is a wide-shouldered wing with superb athleticism and excellent finishing ability. Henry can finish with both his right and left hand as well. Aaron also is an elite-level defender who can slide his feet while defending guards and use his strength to bang down low in the paint against forwards and centers. Henry will have to improve shooting if he wants to excel in the NBA. While he is decent off the dribble in the mid-range, his shooting from behind the arc is inconsistent and streaky at best.
Strengths
• Defense & Strength. Henry has a strong, wide-shouldered body that immediately translates to the NBA. He doesn’t get overpowered and uses his body well on offense and defense. Henry is quick enough to slide his feet and explosive enough to block and contest shots.
• Athleticism. Henry can explode vertically and is quite fast for being a small forward.
• Finishing. Henry’s right-handed and left-handed finishes are tough. He’s ambidextrous around the rim, which will help with so many great rim protectors in today’s NBA.
Weaknesses
• 3-Point Shooting. Henry shot 29.6% from behind the arc, which isn’t wholly unforgivable, but his inconsistency is concerning. He will have to play the small forward in the NBA, and it will be imperative for him to at least translate to a solid C&S prospect from behind the arc.
Best Landing Spot
Houston Rockets. The Rockets need some versatile, athletic forwards that will play defense, be disciplined, and hustle. Henry can do all those things with the upside of having a solid offensive game at the next level.
Worst Landing Spot
Utah Jazz. Utah already has Ingles, Bogdanovic, and a surplus of other forwards that would suck any available minutes away from Henry. It’s unlikely that Utah would pick Henry unless it sees him as a potential 2-guard, where a few NBA scouts are projecting him in the long run.
Draft Range
Late-first round. Henry will likely drop towards the end of the first round, but I don’t think he slips into the second unless there’s a draft-and-stash run on overseas players.
NBA Comparison
Justice Winslow. It could be because they are both 6-foot-6 lefty small forwards, but Henry’s game reminds me a bit of Winslow. Winslow’s game is more polished, but they are both big-bodied forwards with a knack for strapping up on defense.
Ratings Breakdown
Shooting: 5. There are some shooting mechanics issues with Henry that lead to inconsistency. His 3P% wasn’t necessarily terrible, but from shot to shot, his form differs. That inherently causes concerns, but if he’s a gym rat, it’s nothing he can’t improve with an NBA shooting coach.
Passing: 7.5. Henry was a do-it-all player for Michigan State, and his passing excites me as I looked to see if he had secondary or tertiary scoring and playmaking potential in the NBA at some point. He’s a project, for sure, but there are some exciting pieces to his game.
Dribbling: 7.5 Aaron already has a solid perimeter game in terms of his ball-handling.
Hustle: 8. Henry is a solid rebounder, and he utilizes his athleticism well on the boards, as he averaged just shy of six per game. At times, Henry doesn’t fully exert himself on the floor, leading to him fading out of games. His occasional passiveness will need to be tweaked if he wants to get serious NBA minutes.
Defense: 9. Henry is highly touted amongst scouts and NBA teams for his defense. He can switch on to bigs with his size or guards with his speed and quickness, which is ultimately the most exciting characteristic about Henry.
Total rating: 45.5/60
29
Cameron Thomas just wrapped up his impressive freshman year for the LSU Tigers. The 6-foot-4 guard scored a whopping 23 points per game and helped lead the Tigers to a March Madness appearance. Cam’s game resembles an offensive-minded player like Lou Williams, who has made millions in the NBA by being a “professional scorer.” Likely, this is the trajectory that Thomas will be on, and that’s certainly not a knock. Thomas is currently a defensive liability and will have to mitigate that a little to make sure NBA teams don’t become frustrated.
Strengths
• Shooting Range. Cam projects immediately to being a long-range shooter in the NBA. He was comfortably pulling up from 5-7 feet behind the arc in his freshman year.
• Professional Scorer. Cam averaged 23 points per game as a freshman, which is extremely difficult to do, even for the best players. Granted, LSU did play an extremely high-tempo offense; however, that still does not take away from this feat.
• Transition Speed. Cam has an impressive ability to score in transition, as he understands when to pull up versus take it all the way. His end-to-end speed is solid but not unbelievable.
Weaknesses
• Defense. Cam’s most glaring weakness, and what will plummet his draft stock from lottery pick to late-first round prospect, is his defense. His lateral speed and effort, in general, are just not there.
• Athleticism. Cam doesn’t have crazy explosiveness, but he caters his game around his scoring, so this shouldn’t be much of a concern at the next level, as long as he continues to work on his paint finishes and layup packages.
Best Landing Spot
Sacramento Kings. Defense is not the Kings’ identity at the moment, and it would be interesting to see Thomas running in transition with Fox and Buddy Hield.
Worst Landing Spot
New York Knicks. Tom Thibodeau would have a heart attack if he saw the matador defense that Cam played at LSU. No amount of scoring ability would get Thomas tick on a Thibodeau-coached team.
Draft Range
Late-first round. A team that lacks scoring may take a late-first-round flier on Thomas because he is an offensive dynamo.
NBA Comparison
Lou Williams. Lou and Cam are both “professional scorers” without a positional identity. They also both have immense trouble defensively. Cam often has lazy closeouts and turns his hips instead of sliding his feet. Cam projects as a sixth man type of player as he may never really be defensively adept enough to be a starter.
Ratings Breakdown
Shooting: 9. Cam has insane shot-making abilities. He hits contested shots, off-the-dribble shots, step-backs, relocation side-steps, turn-around jumpers, and everything else. No one averages 23 points per game in college as a freshman by mistake.
Passing: 6. This is a tough grade to give because he just didn’t pass much at LSU. His role was to be a high-level scorer, so we didn’t get to see much passing from him. From what I’ve seen, he’s a capable passer but does not project to be a playmaker for others at the NBA level.
Dribbling: 8. Cam handles the ball well enough to get his shot, run an offense, and get out with the ball in transition.
Hustle: 6. Effort and hustle extend to both ends of the floor. While I believe LSU played high-tempo, “we will just outscore you” basketball, he still could have made some better effort plays.
Defense: 5. Very average players can get by Cam, so I’m not sure how he will defend guards who have completely mastered the craft of scoring in the NBA.
Total rating: 41.5/60
30
Coming out of Vandegrift high school in Leander Texas, Greg Brown was a consensus 5-star recruit. Per 247 Sports, he was ranked as the #9 overall prospect in his class and the #2 power forward. Brown received a handful of offers including from such prominent schools as Michigan, Kentucky, and Auburn before ultimately choosing Texas. Unfortunately, the elite athleticism that made Brown a top-end recruit never came to fruition in the form of productive play while at Texas. He struggled to make an impact on either end of the floor and, while his fluidity and athleticism are off the charts, inconsistency plagued Brown’s freshman season. Many draft analysts, myself included, expected Brown to return to Texas for one more season to further develop his game and boost his draft stock, but he opted to declare for the draft now. Brown’s upside is staggering with a 44-inch vertical that is well above-average (28 inches) in the NBA. However, with so many holes in his game, Brown is the definition of a long-term project for whichever team decides to take a shot on him at the end of the first round.
Strengths
• Elite vertical (44 inches), combines with power and fluidity
• Great lob threat, can hang in the air and double-clutch
• Should blow past 4s and 5s in the NBA on the drive
• Verticality and discipline help project future as high-level rim protector
• Smaller players struggle to score on him with his length/athleticism
Weaknesses
• Historically bad passer – 10 assists in 26 games compared to 193 shot attempts
• Way too ambitious with shot selection
• Court vision is lacking – misses kick-out opportunities
• Footwork/awareness issues lead to turnovers
• Not a good help defender, poor defensive motor
Best Landing Spot
Los Angeles Clippers. Greg Brown has a very wide range of draft outcomes, but you have to imagine learning from such elite wings as Kawhi Leonard and Paul George would be incredibly beneficial for such a raw prospect. Brown obviously wouldn’t sniff the floor right away on a win-now team, but he could learn a lot from the players the Clippers currently have in place.
Worst Landing Spot
Houston Rockets. The Rockets have two late first-round picks (from the Blazers and Bucks) and will likely be enticed by Brown’s upside with one of those picks. However, Houston is a bit of a mess right now and no starting five saw more than a few games together this season. That inconsistency and lack of leadership would not be beneficial for a player in Brown who needs to be diligent if he wants to pan out the way he can.
Draft Range
Late 1st to Mid 2nd
NBA Comparison
Shannon Brown. The former Michigan State forward was never a high-impact NBA player and while he did win two titles, his poor passing and limited offensive game overall relegated him to mostly a reserve role – but man could he jump. With a 44.5-inch vertical, he’s around the same range as Greg Brown as one of the best leapers in NBA history. In order for Brown to evolve into more than just a high-flying bench player, though, Greg Brown needs to work on his passing, shot selection, and off-ball defense.
Ratings Breakdown
Shooting: 6: While Greg Brown wasn’t expected to be a high-level shooter in his first collegiate season, there was enough to go on to project his scoring ability in the NBA. His shot selection needs a LOT more discipline and a LOT less overconfidence, but he showed that he can hit perimeter shots off the dribble and has a future in the NBA as a shooter.
Passing: 4: Brown’s court awareness (or lack thereof) is mind-numbing at times, so of course he doesn’t grade out as a passer very well. Again – 0.4 assists to 2.3 turnovers per game just isn’t going to cut it in the NBA. It’s unclear if the missing elements in his game as a playmaker will ever be teachable.
Dribbling: 8: The best part of Brown’s game is his willingness to decisively take defenders off the dribble and drive to the hoop. With his speed and fluidity, as well as his elite verticality, the traits are all there for Brown to be a strong scorer off the drive. However, if he doesn’t figure out how to kick out to open shooters, teams will collapse on him with no remorse.
Hustle: 6: I wish Brown’s hustle and heart matched his clearly high-level athleticism, because he has the potential to be a very solid player on both ends. However, Brown clearly lacks a strong motor and goes through stretches where he totally disappears on the floor.
Defense: 7: With his verticality, strength, and athleticism, Brown has the potential to become a very solid rim protector in the NBA. He also does a great job of sticking with opposing ball-handlers on the drive. However, his defensive rating is deflated by his court awareness and help defending issues.
Total rating: 34/60