NCAAB Boston College Vs. Duke Odds, Picks, Predictions (12/3/22)

ACC conference play starts for the high profiled Duke Blue Devils as they take on Boston College who is fresh off a loss to Nebraska. Comfortably beating Ohio State, Duke has some momentum as they head into conference play and will be tested by the Boston College defense. Can the Eagles derail the Duke train off its tracks with a monster upset?

Boston College Vs. Duke Odds

Oddsmakers don’t think so as Boston College opened as a +17 underdog with the number ticking up to +17.5 in some shops. While they do have a very good defense, their offense will simply not allow them to keep scoring pace for the upset. Now could they get the cover? That’s a different story.

As for the total, points are expected to come at a premium as oddsmakers set the total at a lowly 129.5 with bettors being split on the number. Still catching 129.5, both units have very good defenses that are capable of slowing each other down. Boston College also has an anemic offense while Duke figures out their scoring identity.

Boston College Vs. Duke Prediction & Pick

The Pick: u129.5

This isn’t your dad’s Duke team of old as this unit is one of the more head scratching Duke groupings that I have seen in some time. Completely abandoning the Duke philosophy of being a run and gun, scoring outpour type of team.

Instead, Duke’s offense has come to a halt with one of the slower tempos in basketball with a Kenpom Tempo rating of 271st in the nation. This is especially head scratching after Duke finished as one of the worst half court units last year.

The alter in offensive identity comes with the establishment of star freshman big man Kyle Filipowski who has been an absolute force down low. He currently averages 15.4 points per game while hauling in 9.1 rebounds.

He possesses floor stretching abilities with a touch from outside, currently shooting 36.4% from deep. Impressive for a center as this style of play becomes more modern in today’s schemes, but his absence from the block when he favors the perimeter leaves them vulnerable on the boards. 

He also fails to score at a consistent rate, only shooting 43.7% as a whole. Defenses have been able to clamp down on him with Duke’s inability to shoot from the perimeter, shooting a lowly 29.7% from three.

Boston College Vs. Duke Key Matchups

Can anyone help Kyle Filipowski and Jeremy Roach with scoring? How will Boston College crack Duke’s defense?

Duke secondary scoring vs Boston College defense

Not only abandoning the run and gun and barrage from deep, but Duke has also severely lacked in diverse scoring with only Kyle Filipowski and Jeremy Roach being in double digit scoring numbers. This is still an efficient offense with a 18th ranked AdjO metric.

Needing help especially from guards as forwards and centers have commanded a bulk of their scoring. With most scoring production coming from two, good defenses like Boston College will simply be able to drop back and dare their guards to beat them from deep, which at this point I am not so sure they can do so consistently.

While adjusting to a slower identity, Duke will need the others to step up in scoring abilities as each possession on offense is now more valuable with limited opportunities. While scoring 81 against Ohio State was a welcoming site, they have struggled to score against other top tier teams by being unable to crack 60 against Purdue and Oregon State.

Boston College scoring vs Duke’s defense

While Boston College has started with a 5-3 non-conference record, reality is coming in quick as their lowly offense takes on a major leap in quality of opponent. This is a team that was blown out by Nebraska with an embarrassing loss to Tarleton State as well.

With a defense that ranks 76th in AdjD, their offense has severely lacked and has held them back from being any serious threat. Their offense currently ranks 198th in AdjO and have a serious lack of diversified scoring.

Unlike Duke, a bulk of Boston College’s scoring comes from guard play. This doesn’t bode well should Duke’s defense lock them up from deep as they are no threat from the perimeter. The Eagles will need some sort of threat down low to push back against Duke’s bigs, a feat that they seem unable to do. 

Verdict

With both teams wanting to play at a snail’s pace and Boston College being severely out matched, I will take the under in what will be a defensive showdown.