NCAAB Georgetown Vs. Texas Tech Predictions, Picks, Odds (11/30/22)

It’s conference matchup week and we continue the ongoing battles in the Big 12 and Big East with Georgetown taking on Texas Tech. It’s not the shiniest matchup in the slate of challenges, but there is money to be made as the Ewing lead Hoyas look for the upset behind a high-powered offense against the Raiders.

Georgetown Vs. Texas Tech Odds

While looking mightily improved from last season, oddsmakers are still brash on the Hoyas chances in this one as they opened them as a +18 underdog. Bettors have been quick to pounce on it, crashing the number to as low as +16.5 in some shops. This comes as little surprise due to the pace of play and the Hoyas ability to score at the rim, potentially keeping this within the number by trading back and forth.

As for the total, oddsmakers and bettors have been in agreement as this number opened at 137.5 and has hovered around there. Occasionally dipping to 136.5, only to bounce right back up. With their slow pace of play on both ends and ability to score, the total is a stay away from me as swings will heavily dictate where this lands.

Georgetown Vs. Texas Tech Prediction & Pick

The Pick: Georgetown +17

It’s never easy backing Georgetown, especially for how bad they can truly look. It’s marvelous how Ewing has maintained his job through year six after last year’s disaster of a season, but they are at least willing to fight this time around with a high-powered offense.

Listed as one of the top six teams in efficient shooting per ShotQuality, Georgetown has excelled on offense with their ability to capitalize on high quality looks. While the offense ranks 114th in AdjO per Kenpom, their ability to score at a high rate near the rim is what keeps this team within reach.

They scheme their offensive focus on production at the rim, ranking top-20 in two-point attempts. While it may seem prehistoric in comparison to today’s style of play, their quality of looks at the rim have made them a respectable scoring unit. This is especially important in covering a large spread while outmatched, capitalizing on every possession.

Speaking of scoring, Georgetown does a good job in distributing the scoring production as they have eight players playing meaningful minutes with four of them in double figures. Mainly through guard play, creating space and attacking the rim for high quality chances.

While the offense is more than capable of staying within the number, it’s the defense that will need to improve to give us more security. Just like the offense, the Hoyas specialize in securing the block but lack at the perimeter by allowing three-point attempts at a near league high rate.

Georgetown Vs. Texas Tech Key Matchups

Can the Hoyas limit the Raiders perimeter shooting? How will Georgetown fare against this elite defense?

Texas Tech offense vs Hoyas perimeter defense

Texas Tech’s offense is efficient, ranking 45th in AdjO behind a slow style of play. Like Georgetown, they specialize in production at the rim with high quality two point looks that knockdown at a high rate.

It has been a sluggish start for their perimeter offense, shooting just 32% from deep. Leading scorers Kevin Obanor and De’Vion Harmon have yet to find their stride from deep, shooting for a combined 8/30. 

The Raiders will benefit from more quality looks from deep as Georgetown struggles to guard the perimeter, but it’s hard to stake a cover on a team that has yet to be consistent from deep. If this turns into a back-and-forth battle at the rim behind a slow style of play, I like our chances at covering a large spread.

Hoyas scoring vs Texas Tech defense

Texas Tech is once again one of the most feared defenses in basketball, ranking 16th in AdjD per Kenpom. This comes as little surprise as they have built an identity over the past few years of a suffocating defense that kills long possessions.

That’s great and all when dealing with a team’s perimeter looks and forcing them inside the arc, but Georgetown wants to attack the rim and that is exactly what you need to do against a shifting defense. Find the holes and attack the rim for either a high-quality look or a chance at the charity stripe.

Verdict

With both teams playing at a snail’s pace and relying on two-point production, I will take Georgetown to cover the spread at +16.5 or higher.