NCAAB Maryland Vs. Louisville Betting Predictions, Picks, Odds (11/29/22)

In my recent time as a college basketball enthusiast, I can’t remember a team’s fall from grace being worse than Louisville’s. This was a team that was a serious threat to win the National Championship before covid canceled the tournament. Now they are the laughingstock of the league. Can the Cardinals do the unthinkable and get their first win? Or will Maryland roll them over? Let’s find out.

Maryland Vs. Louisville Odds

Oddsmakers don’t think so as Louisville opened at +11.5 and now sits at +12.5 in some shops. The market is still trying to gauge this Louisville team as they have yet to get a single cover with no hope in the near future. Maryland will have advantages on both sides of the court with blow out potential written all over it.

As for the total, this number opened at 135.5 and has stayed pretty firm at the opener. Bettors may be wary of attacking the total as the question marks around Louisville’s offensive production is too uncertain to see how they can contribute to the total as this is one of the most anemic units in basketball.

Maryland Vs. Louisville Prediction & Pick

The Pick: Maryland -12

Sometimes it’s as simple as the old saying “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it”. While my pick obviously goes deeper than that, I believe the market has not caught up with how bad this Louisville team is. Kenpom himself has this -19 on a neutral court in Maryland’s favor, giving the current number plenty of cushion in comparison to his projection.

Louisville is one of the few teams left in the league who has not covered a spread yet and I don’t see how they get it done this time around after a brutally bad Maui Invitational. While not even able to get a straight up win against lesser competition, Louisville then was collectively blown out by Arkansas, Texas Tech, and Cincinnati.

Maryland on the other hand has been on the opposite side of the spectrum by steam rolling their early season schedule behind impressive offensive play. Ranked 17th in AdjO per Kenpom, Maryland excels in teamwork and attacking you with multiple weapons. Maryland plays eight players with meaningful minutes with four of them in double digit scoring.

With the scoring spread between both guards and forwards, they can burn you from both the inside and the perimeter. Their offense should find a groove behind a lackluster Louisville defense that will give them quality looks all game, stretching the defense to be attacked throughout the course of the game.

(Tallysight pick tile here)

Maryland Vs. Louisville Key Matchups

Can anyone other than El Ellis find scoring production for Louisville? How will Louisville limit Maryland’s scoring?

Louisville role players vs Maryland defense

The main catalyst behind Louisville’s downfall has been the disappearing act of their offense. The Cardinals currently only have one player in double digit scoring with El Ellis averaging 17.2 points per game. After him, the next leading scorer is Jae’Lyn Withers who averages 8.7 ppg.

Not only do they lack a disparity in scoring with only Ellis scoring in double figures, but they are also extremely inefficient at scoring as well. Louisville averages a putrid 39.5% from the field, 29.7% from deep. 

Their lack of scoring comes from not being able to efficiently distribute the ball. This leads to poor shot selections and stalls out possessions which has resulted in their offense to rank 228th in AdjO.

Maryland’s scoring vs Louisville defense

The main issue with the lack of Louisville’s scoring will be on full display as Maryland comes in as a complete scoring unit. While the Cardinals defense has been far better than their offense, this is still an average unit that ranks 114th in AdjD.

The Terps will look to continue their success down low which has been Louisville’s weakness. They are top-15 in the nation in scoring under the perimeter, a scheme we may see abused in this matchup. 

If Maryland can continue to find success in effective field goal percentage down low, then this will suck the Louisville defense in and give Maryland open looks from deep. Even though they have struggled from the perimeter, it will be interesting to see if Maryland can find success this time around with higher quality looks.

Verdict

Take Maryland on the points in what may be another long night for the rebuilding Louisville Cardinals.