NCAAB Maryland Vs. Wisconsin Odds, Picks, Predictions (12/6/22)

Sometimes you just have to tip your cap and that is exactly what I am doing with the Maryland Terps after they beat the Fighting Illini. Keeping their undefeated record intact, they now get another true road test against the Wisconsin Badgers in what will be a defensive battle. Can Maryland keep their streak alive and build a case as a championship contender? Let’s find out.

Maryland Vs. Wisconsin Odds

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Oddsmakers are skeptical of the Terps chances as they opened up Maryland as a -1.5 favorite. Bettors are even in less agreement, betting Wisconsin up to -1.5 as of writing. Completely flipping the spread, this brings intrigue as both units have advantages over each other. This is poised to be a fantastic stylistic matchup.

As for the total, this is where I get confused as I cannot explain the line movement at all. Oddsmakers had this pegged as a low scoring affair, opening the total at 127.5. As of writing, bettors have hammered the over with the total now residing at 132.5 in some shops. This brings intrigue towards a better under as their style of play sets up for a slow-paced defensive showdown.

Maryland Vs. Wisconsin Prediction & Pick

The Pick: Wait on the under

While I like the current number for a small under play, I am going to be greedy and see if this total climbs even higher as it nears tip off. I will also look to play Maryland for a small wager should their number continue to go against them as well. The market is still struggling to price Maryland with this true away game being a good test to their actual outlook.

As for the total, this is going to be a defensive showdown with both units ranking top-35 in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency per Kenpom. Wisconsin’s ability to limit Maryland’s scoring will be the key as the Maryland offense is lethal with multiple weapons dealing damage. The Terps have eight players playing meaningful minutes with four of them in double digit scoring.

They rely on high quality shots at the rim, making drives and facilitating through the post. This plays exactly into Wisconsin’s hands, a team who uses their size to negate clean looks at the rim and forcing teams to beat them from deep. Even when favoring their defensive efficiency under the perimeter, teams have not found paydirt from three while hitting under 30% from deep.

Maryland will be hard pressed to exploit that area as they only shoot 32.8% from the perimeter. Until they can prove to be consistent from deep, I’ll temper my expectations on the Terps chances of stretching out the opposing defense. 

The style of play also suits our under ticket as both teams will want to grind this to a halt. Maryland has an adjusted tempo rating of 271st while Wisconsin is much slower with a rating of 335th. Both excel at crashing the boards and limiting each other’s second chance points, giving a stronger chance for empty possessions on both ends.

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Maryland Vs. Wisconsin Key Matchups

Can the Terps continue to play elite defense and limit the Badgers scoring? 

Wisconsin scoring production vs Maryland defense

While Wisconsin has been known as a defensive stalwart, it’s Maryland’s elite defensive rating that has come as a surprise this early into the season. They currently rank 33rd in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency while using their athleticism to smother the perimeter and force opponents into low quality shot selections.

Even with average on ball pressure, Maryland has excelled at scrambling to the shooter and limiting teams to a below average three-point shooting percentage of 26%. Wisconsin’s slow tempo of play will allow Maryland’s perimeter defense to settle in while Wisconsin tries to implement their half-court offense.

Maryland may sacrifice open looks on the perimeter as they will need to favor defending the block as Wisconsin will have a size advantage on the block with Tyler Wahl doing damage down low.

Verdict

With both teams having defensive advantages against each other’s style of play, we may see stalled out empty possessions at a frequent pace. Especially since both want to play at a snail’s pace, limiting scoring opportunities.