NCAAB Oklahoma State Vs. UConn Predictions, Picks, Odds (12/1/22)

Is championship level UConn back? After what feels like forever ago since we saw the Huskies cut down the nets, UConn has started out hot this season by going 8-0 and winning the Phil Knight Invitational. They now go against Oklahoma State for their matchup in the Big East-Big 12 battle to keep their undefeated streak alive.

Oklahoma State Vs. UConn Odds

Can UConn keep their undefeated streak alive? Oddsmakers tend to think so as they opened as a -9.5 favorite. Bettors are backing the Huskies as well, as they are now an -10.5 favorite in some shops. They have statistical advantages on both sides of the court, playing at just an overall higher level than the Cowboys.

As for the total, oddsmakers and bettors are aligned as this number opened at 138.5 and has stayed firm there. We may see a late shift towards the under as both units bring in fantastic defenses to combat against each other’s respectable offenses.

Oklahoma State Vs. UConn Prediction & Pick

The Pick: UConn -10

It’s still early in the season, but UConn is quickly pulling away as my personal favorite to win it all this year. They are deep, talented on all ends, and are proving to be able to compete against other elite units with a sweep of the PKI.

Speaking of deep, UConn impressively plays ten players meaningful minutes with four of them in double digit scoring. Forward Adama Sanogo leads the team with 18.5 points per game and seven RPG. An absolute menace down low, converting at the rim with a field goal percentage of 63.3% while also hitting at 50% from deep at a far less quantity.

Coupling his offensive production with other viable weapons and you have one of the best offenses in basketball. Even with Oklahoma State being a step up in defensive production, they will struggle to keep scoring pace should UConn find their rhythm.

It’s not just the offense either, UConn’s defense has been just as elite. Their defense was on full display against their first elite offensive test, shutting down Alabama’s high-powered attack. This Huskies team currently ranks top-10 in both AdjO and AdjD per Kenpom, a historic feat that equates to tourney success.

Oklahoma State Vs. UConn Key Matchups

Can Oklahoma State find enough offense to compete? How will UConn fare in their first defensive test?

Oklahoma State three-point shooting vs UConn perimeter defense

If Oklahoma State wants to cover the number, let alone get the upset, they will need to find a way to keep scoring pace with the Huskies elite offense. Their defense will do their part in slowing them down, but it will be up to the offense to finish it.

Scoring hasn’t been an issue for the Cowboys as this unit ranks top-50 in AdjO with a plethora of scorers in the lineup. Like the Huskies, they also play 10 players meaningful minutes with three of them in double digit scoring.

Their top end does the bulk of the damage with four of them combining for 55% of their scoring. The one lingering issue that may be on display is that the Cowboys simply do not threaten you from deep. 

They only convert 29.3% from deep which will allow the Huskies to sit back past the line, daring the Cowboys to shoot. If the Cowboys continue to fail to hit at a consistent rate from three, then they may find themselves in a hole early as their low post scoring won’t come easy either.

UConn offense vs Oklahoma State defense

While the offense has vastly improved, it’s the defense that has led the Cowboys to success early in the season with a 27th ranked AdjD per Kenpom. They have held opponents to just 62.3 points per game and a 41.7% effective field goal percentage while ranking above average in the nation in turnover and block percentage. 

While these are impressive metrics for the Cowboys, they now have their hands full with a more all-around offense that is more than capable of burning you from deep or attacking the rim. It’s almost asking for trouble to stretch out the defense to guard the perimeter as UConn has excelled at distributing to find the open gap for a quality look at the rim.

Verdict

While the Cowboys defensive metrics are impressive, UConn just poses as too much of a threat on both ends and will dictate too fast of a scoring pace for the Cowboys to keep up with.