NCAAB UConn vs. Florida Odds, Picks, Predictions (12/7/22)

The Todd Golden era at Florida has started off with mixed results, including struggles against projected NCAA Tournament teams. The Gators host not only a likely tournament team on Wednesday night but a potential Final Four contender in fifth-ranked UConn. Dan Hurley’s group is firing on all cylinders despite some roster turnover. Does Florida have enough to keep up?

Let’s take a look at the odds and make some picks and predictions for Wednesday night’s matchup in Gainesville.

UConn vs. Florida Odds

UConn enters as a 4.5-point road favorite, sitting at -190 on the moneyline. The over/under is set at 143.5 points.

Florida will be a home underdog in this one, which is to be expected. The Gators are 4-1 in true home games this season, but that includes a loss to FAU. What’s more interesting is that UConn hasn’t played a true road game yet this season, though the Huskies’ win over Oregon in the Phil Knight Invitational was certainly in Ducks territory. Will UConn’s talent overcome the Florida crowd?

UConn vs. Florida Prediction & Pick

Everything we’ve seen from this UConn team so far this season indicates this could be a pretty comfortable win for the Huskies. My concerns that the team would be too reliant on Adama Sanogo have been alleviated by the number of complementary pieces who have stepped up. The Huskies aren’t necessarily going to crumble if either Tristen Newton or Jordan Hawkins has an off night, and that makes them a much safer pick on the road.

UConn hasn’t won a game by fewer than 10 points this season. Huskies -4.5 against a very shaky Florida defense is the way to go.

UConn vs. Florida Key Matchups

UConn is averaging a 24-point margin of victory so far this season, with a strong offense and equally as impressive defense. What makes the Huskies so difficult to defend is how many options they have. This is a totally unselfish team, and it hasn’t had to rely on Adama Sanogo like many expected. UConn has two pretty strong shooters in Jordan Hawkins and Tristen Newton, which forces teams to redirect some focus away from Sanogo.

The most interesting piece of the puzzle might be freshman big man Donovan Clingan, who was a force in the paint to open the season with six consecutive games of 2+ blocks. Along with Sanogo, he’s part of the reason UConn is a well above-average blocking and rebounding team.

The Huskies’ dominance can best be summed up this way: They haven’t allowed more than 70 points in any game, and they haven’t scored under 70 points in any game.

You could argue Florida’s offense is the second-best UConn has faced so far, behind Alabama, and it’s possible home-court advantage helps the Gators. Florida has scored 70+ points in all games but one and shoots the ball well. The Gators can also rival UConn in the paint a bit – Colin Castleton is averaging 2.9 blocks per game and will be a huge factor against Sanogo.

Like UConn, this is a pretty deep Florida team. Unlike UConn, defense has been a significant problem. It wouldn’t be shocking if this group played better as the season went along, with so many key pieces coming fresh out of the transfer portal.

At the same time, transfer guard Will Richard is shooting 58 percent from beyond the arc so far. That’s not sustainable, and when regression hits, who will be the Gators’ No. 2 scorer? Another transfer guard, Trey Bonham, has had some big moments early in the season, but it’s tough to tell whether either player will be able to match UConn’s Hawkins and Newton considering the Huskies will bring a challenging defense.

This is a Florida team that scored only 55 points against West Virginia in November – a game in which Bonham shot 0-for-9 and Castleton was completely held in check – so the most likely scenario is the Gators’ offense gets slowed down while the Huskies’ offense rolls.