NCAAF Baylor Vs. Texas Odds, Picks, Predictions (11/25/22)

Even after falling to TCU and trailing Kansas State, Texas still controls their own destiny in what is a must win situation should they want a rematch against the Horned Frogs in the Big 12 championship. They will need Kansas State to get upset by Kansas and win this week’s matchup against Baylor. Can Texas pull off a miracle? Let’s find out.

Baylor Vs. Texas Odds

I use the term miracle loosely as Texas comes in as a decent size favorite. While initially opening at -4.5, bettors were quick to pounce on them as the current number is now -8.5. With Baylor on the road and having little to play for with a bowl game already locked up, I find it hard to see how Texas doesn’t just roll over the Bears with advantages on both sides of the ball.

As for the total, I was surprised to see which way the number has been going since opening at 53.5. As of writing the total is now at the key number of 56 after taking some heavy steam overnight. This comes as a surprise as we may see some conservative play down the road of this game script.

Baylor Vs. Texas Prediction & Pick

The Pick: Under 56

While it’s never ideal to go against heavy steam, this number has simply climbed too high for my liking while being able to grab a 56. I will personally wait to see if the total climbs even higher as we near kickoff, but 56 is a good buy spot for an initial wager should you want to get in on it now.

The Longhorns offense found life in their last game out against Kansas after being shockingly contained against TCU’s poor defense. While Kansas isn’t a good measuring stick themselves with a very weak defense, it was welcoming to see the Longhorns be able to move the ball down the field.

Because of their offensive explosion that resulted in 55 points and 539 yards, we may be seeing an overreaction to this number. A majority of the Longhorns yards were on the ground as Bijan Robinson ran wild. Baylor will be a much tougher quality of defense in comparison to Kansas, especially at stopping the run. The Bears currently rank 45th in Def Rush Success Rate and 32nd in Def Rush Explosiveness.

Baylor Vs. Texas Key Matchups

Can Quinn Ewers find success through the air? How will Richard Reese find success on the ground against the Longhorns?

Quinn Ewers vs Baylor secondary

Safe to say Quinn Ewers hasn’t been the same since early in the season when he was tearing apart the Alabama defense before getting knocked out of the game with a shoulder injury. Since then, Ewers has put up a 2022 stat line of 1,614 yards, 14 touchdowns and six interceptions. Pedestrian numbers for the star he was pegged to be.

Could this be a lingering injury issue? Lack of motivation knowing who’s coming to replace him? Or has Texas just shifted more to the run with the best running back in the nation? In my opinion, probably a combination of all three.

Still, he will be suiting up and going against the Baylor defense this week. He will be poised for a bounce back game as Baylor ranks 88th in Def Pass Success Rate. If Robinson can get the ground game going again, this will suck the defense into the box and give Ewers opportunities to let it fly to his playmakers on the outside.

Richard Reese vs Texas rush defense

Speaking of run games, Baylor has built an identity of a successful run game to get their offense going. They have above average ranks in their ground game, ranking 19th in Off Rush Success, 23rd in Off Rush PPA, and 21st in Rush Explosiveness.

The leading force behind their run game has been stud running back Richard Reese who has found success this season. He currently has rushing stats of 908 yards and 14 touchdowns, an absolute force in the red zone.

Reese and company will be tested early as Texas fields a stout rush defense, ranked top-10 in the nation in Def Rush Success.

Verdict

With a heavy run script on deck for this matchup and defenses capable of limiting the damage done on the field, we may be in for a low scoring affair with the Longhorns Big 12 championship aspirations on the line.