NCAAF Coastal Carolina Vs. Troy Odds, Picks, Predictions (12/3/22)

Sometimes it pays more to be lucky than good and that is exactly what the Chants have been showing this year. One of the luckier teams of the year in Coastal Carolina who have benefited from fluky results, now go against Troy for the Sun Belt championship. Has their luck run out? Let’s find out.

Coastal Carolina Vs. Troy Odds

Oddsmakers tend to think so as Coastal enters this one as sizable underdogs. They opened at +4.5 and have quickly seen their odds rise as high as +10.5 as of writing. Speaking of luck, Coastal landed on the wrong side of the coin at the end of the season with McCall going down with a foot injury. His injury status is still undetermined but trending downward as the rising line as indicated. 

As for the total, points are expected to be at a premium as the total opened at 48.5 and has dipped to 47.5 in some shops. Troy will have massive statistical advantages on defense, especially without McCall under center. In his absence, the Chants offense has been a shell of their former selves with little hope for success in sight.

Coastal Carolina Vs. Troy Prediction & Pick

The Pick: Under 48.5

After grabbing Troy -4.5, I simply cannot back that up as the number has climbed to as high as -10.5. Even with a middle shot, I just do not trust the McCall less Chants to be able to find success against the Troy defense. Instead, I will shift my focus to the total as stalled out drives may be a common theme throughout this game.

Even with nothing to play for in their season finale against James Madison, it was shocking to see how unproductive the offense was by being held to just seven points in a blowout loss. Backup quarterback Jarrett Guest was held to 99 yards in the air and one touchdown and interception a piece.

Should he get the starting nod again, he will be hard pressed to find success in the air as Troy is one of the best coverage units in football. This will result in the Chants going more run heavy to find success against the Trojans, only playing more into our hand with an under ticket.

The Chant’s run game is around average in the nation, ranking 59th in Off Rush Success and 58th in Off Rush Explosiveness. Should the ground game find life, they may be hard pressed to turn it into points as the key metric for this under is Troy’s Def Finishing Drives rank as they are top-10 in limiting opposing points past the 40.

Coastal Carolina Vs. Troy Key Matchups

Can Gunnar Watson find success in the air against Coastal Carolina’s secondary? Will Troy be able to limit the Chants ground game?

Gunnar Watson vs Coastal Carolina secondary

While Troy has been successful thus far to get to the conference championship, it has not been in large part to their offense. Fielding one of the better defensive units in football, their offense has been shockingly lackluster.

The Trojans offense ranks 82nd in Overall Success Rate and near dead last in Off Finishing Drives. Their run game has been especially bad, ranking 102nd in Off Rush Success Rate and has been nearly abandoned with one of the lower usage rates in football.

That means if Troy wants to win this then they will need Gunnar Watson to step up and lead the offense and their average ranked pass attack. While conservative in their last game out in a blowout win, he will have the ability to let it fly this time around as the Chants field one of the worst pass defenses in football as well as a weak Def Finishing Drive rank.

Coastal Carolina ground game vs Troy rush defense

As previously mentioned, we may see a heavier dose of the run when Coastal has the ball should they still struggle to find success in the air. While Troy fields one of the best coverage units with elite secondary play, their rush defense has dipped to below average.

Ranking 84th in Def Rush Success Rate, it will be up to Troy’s defensive line and linebackers to plug the holes and limit the Chants ability to find open space. Should they succeed in limiting the rush then I am hard pressed to see how the Chants find offensive success.

Verdict

With the Chants offense in for a long night against an elite Troy defense who struggles on offense themselves, I am taking the under in what will be a defensive display for the Sun Belt championship.