NCAAF UCF Vs. Tulane Odds, Picks, Predictions (12/3/22)

In a rematch from their regular season showdown that saw UCF pull out the win against Tulane to the tune of 38-31, they now face off again for the American Athletic Conference Championship. In what will be a thrilling display of offense, we are in for a good one for our football viewing pleasure when these two kick off Saturday evening.

UCF Vs. Tulane Odds

Will Tulane get their revenge after a seven point loss in the regular season? Oddsmakers lean that way as Tulane opened as a -2.5 favorite with bettors backing them up. Since opening as a slight favorite, bettors were quick to pounce on them by taking them up all the way to -4.5 as of writing.

As for the total, oddsmakers were hesitant on if we would see the same high scoring affair by setting the number at 58.5. Bettors think otherwise, hammering the under and sending this to as low as 56.5. Defenses tend to tighten up in the championship, especially when they have already faced the opposing team earlier in the season which makes the total very intriguing.

UCF Vs. Tulane Prediction & Pick

The Pick: Over 55 live or pregame

With that said, I will be taking the over should this number hit the key number of 55 pregame or live early on. These are two high powered offenses that specialize in efficiency. Should either unit get past the 40, we can expect points to be put on the board as they both excel in Off Finishing Drives.

It’s not as if the total was a fluke score in their last game out. Both teams found success moving the ball downfield with UCF averaging 5.6 yards per play to Tulane’s 5.9 and are above average in Off Success Rate. Even with tape against each other, I still expect both units to find success once again in moving the ball down the field.

Either team can attack you through the air or on the ground, keeping defenses guessing and having to respect both approaches. This bodes well for a game script perspective as when the situation calls for one situation over the other, we can expect them to execute.

It’s also not like either unit fields a great defense. Tulane ranks average in the league in Def Success Rate for both the pass and run. While they are elite at limiting opposing Explosiveness, they are prone to being pushed down the field that results in scoring opportunities for opposing offenses.

As for UCF, they are a tale of two different tapes. While they struggle to stop standard success through the air, they are great at limiting Pass Play Explosiveness. The ground game on the other hand is the complete opposite with UCF limiting ground success but are prone to opposing units breaking out for the big gain.

UCF Vs. Tulane Key Matchups

Can Tulane’s Michael Pratt find success in the air once again against the Knights? How will Tulane limit the Knights ground game?

Michael Pratt vs UCF secondary

Even with the inability to burn them deep with elite Def pass Explosiveness, Pratt found success picking apart the UCF defense to the tune of 236 yards and three touchdowns through the air. Tulane brings a spread style approach with no true superstar at wideout, having seven weapons haul in over 20 receptions with only one exceeding 30.

With UCF needing to respect the ground game with stud running back Tyjae Spears in the backfield, Pratt will look to once again pick apart the defense to help push back the defense and give Spears more room to break one against their weak Def Rush Explosiveness. 

UCF ground game vs Tulane rush defense

Speaking of the ground game, UCF found great success abusing the run against Tulane in their last game out. This did not shock me at all as UCF is elite on the ground while Tulane is average at limiting rush success. 

While a run heavy script is never ideal for an over, I see little reason why they can not find success once again. With no true star in the backfield, UCF brings a committee style approach with both RJ Harvey and Isaiah Bowser doing damage together. Allowing their legs to stay more fresh throughout the course of the game, Tulane will have their hands full in stopping what burned them in their last game out.

Verdict

Monitor the total and take the over at 55 or lower should it get to that point pregame or early in the game.