New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills Matchup Preview 9/29/19: Analysis, Depth Charts, Betting Picks, Daily Fantasy

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I have a tough time remembering when these two teams met with a strong record, and tied for first place. The Patriots and Bills have had a soft schedule so far this season, and that will be the case for most of the season. New England will have their first defensive test, as the Bills defense is on the stronger side. We can point to the secondary as what could be the x factor in this one. The Patriots have looked to escape some injury trouble with Josh Gordon and Julian Edelman. However, the offensive line is still on the weaker side and that might be an issue. For the Bills they will have the home field advantage, and look to control this game with the run. Devin Singletary is questionable, which would lead to a strong role for Frank Gore again. For odds line movement, and full matchup history, see the New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills Matchup Page.

TV Schedule

Date: Sunday, September 29th, 2019
Time: 1:00 ET
Location: New Era Field – Buffalo, NY
Coverage: CBS

Injury Report

New England Patriots: Julian Edelman (P), Rex Burkhead (P)
Buffalo Bills: Devin Singletary (Q)

New England Patriots Analysis

The Patriots come in ranking first in everything on the defensive side. That is somewhat of an easy task when you face Miami, and a third string quarterback on the Jets in back-to-back weeks. This will be another softer test, although the Bills have a decent offense. Overall this should be a lower scoring game on both sides, and the Patriots have the potential to limit the Bills offense. On the offensive side they have put up 33, 43, and 30 points over the first three games. This will be the first test they have on that side, as the Bills defense is sound. When looking at the rushing attack, the Patriots have been fairly average. James White and Rex Burkhead both have production, but 2.4 yards per attempt isn’t getting the job done for Sony Michel.

New England dodged a bullet with the injuries, and with Antonio Brown out of town, we can expect Julian Edelman and Josh Gordon to be the main threats in the offense. Phillip Dorsett has seen 14 targets through three weeks, and has been productive with them. They are not getting any production out of their tight ends, in fact both have combined for just five targets.

New England Patriots Depth Chart

QB: Tom Brady
RB1: Sony Michel
RB2: James White
WR1: Julian Edelman
WR2: Josh Gordon
WR3: Phillip Dorsett
TE: Matt LaCosse

Buffalo Bills Analysis

A soft schedule has helped the Bills climb to a 3-0 start, but we also have to give credit to a team that has improved greatly. This is a defense that has one of the top secondaries in the league, and an improving front seven. They will have a great test on both sides of the ball, trying to score on a stout Patriots defense, but also containing this Patriots defense. The Bills defense has allowed just three passing touchdowns all season long, and have contained running backs outside of Saquon Barkley. New England’s rushing attack has been poor, and the secondary can match up well with these wideouts. Also with no true tight end threat, this is the reason why I believe Buffalo can keep this game close.

As for the offense, we should expect Frank Gore to get a bulk of the workload. Devin Singletary is still battling a hamstring injury, which could linger on a bit. John Brown and Cole Beasley have been racking up targets, averaging 7.7 a game. This is a plus on a Bills offense. Dawson Knox is a name to continue to watch out for, as he should evolve into a solid tight end.

Buffalo Bills Depth Chart

QB: Josh Allen
RB1: Frank Gore
RB2: Devin Singletary
WR1: John Brown
WR2: Zay Jones
WR3: Cole Beasley
TE: Tyler Kroft

Betting Pick: New England Patriots -7

Vegas expects the Patriots to be touchdown favorites here, and I can understand why. New England and Buffalo both have had a soft schedule to start the year, and both teams have capitalized on a 3-0 spot. This passing attack is going to have their first test against a tough secondary. Betting against the Patriots is a tough ask, but the Bills have a shot to cover the spread here in what should be a closer game to what people expect. I have not been impressed with the Patriots offensive line and rushing attack, and this will be a test for them as well. My doubt on the Bills side is that they don’t have an offense that can compete when they get down by 10+ points. Given that possibility, there is the concern. However, I like the Bills to cover and I will be in the minority.

Daily Fantasy: A Lackluster Fantasy Game

On a full slate, this game isn’t something I am eying in any sort of cash game. Julian Edelman was banged up, and the rest of the pass-catching options are in a tough spot against a good secondary. It is also tough to target the rushing attack for upside, given Sony Michel needs to cross the goal line a few times to really pay off in a GPP. There are plenty of better options compared to Tom Brady this week, given he is on the road against this Bills defense. Overall I am staying away from this game. Buffalo should struggle against this defense, and Frank Gore and John Brown are going to be primary focuses for the New England defense. I expect a fairly tight game that is lower scoring, even though the Patriots are touchdown favorites.