New England Patriots Vs. Buffalo Bills NFL Player Props & Picks (12/31/23)
Get New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills player prop picks & odds for the (12/31/23h) matchup
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New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills Player Prop Picks
On Sunday, the Buffalo Bills host the New England Patriots as they look for revenge after their divisional rival upset them earlier this season. While last week’s win was a little shaky at times, the Bills have now secured three straight wins coming out of their late bye week and have their eyes set on the playoffs.
With those factors in mind, let’s see if we can find some value in the player props markets in this game. Be sure to use the player prop search tool above to make sure you’re getting the best odds for whichever prop you decide to wager on. Let’s get to work.
Ezekiel Elliott Over 4.5 Receptions (-120 BetMGM)
This was one of my favorite player props of the week, and I had a full writeup for it on Twitter and broke it down on our Sunday slate player props show. Let’s get further into the details here. Ezekiel Elliott has been a huge part of the passing game lately with 25 targets over the last three weeks, and Bailey Zappe has consistently relied on him as a checkdown option.
Elliott’s average depth of target this season is -0.7 yards, meaning he’s on average catching the ball almost a yard behind the line of scrimmage. His pass-catching role is almost entirely relegated to checkdowns, and while that’s not great for yardage totals, it’s a perfect fit for Bailey Zappe who has just six total scrambles across 302 total snaps this season per PFF.
The game script here is ideal for Elliott to see continued volume in the passing game as the Bills are 14-point favorites. If they build a big lead and the Patriots find themselves in catchup mode, it would mean even more passing volume. For what it’s worth, the Bills have allowed 5.5 receptions per game to running backs, the seventh-most in the NFL.
Elliott has gone over this prop in three straight games with 7, 5, and 9 receptions over the last three weeks. I see no reason he can’t make it 4/4 on this prop, and I’ll continue to bet this number so long as Zappe is the starting quarterback.
James Cook Under 65.5 Rushing Yards (-115 DraftKings)
The change to Joe Brady at offensive coordinator has resulted in a lot of volume for James Cook, and he’s averaging nearly 18 rushing attempts in five games with Brady calling plays. However, this is Cook’s toughest test of the season as the Patriots rank top two in run defense DVOA, EPA, and success rate.
New England has allowed just 84.8 rushing yards per game, the second-fewest in the NFL, and they’ve allowed just four running backs to go over this number against them all season. In recent weeks, they’ve held some pretty competent running backs to low rushing totals – Javonte Williams (24), Najee Harris (29), Austin Ekeler (18), Saquon Barkley (46),
Brady and the rest of this Bills coaching staff are smart – they won’t over emphasize the run on early downs and force Cook to run into walls. I expect Cook to see plenty of volume in the passing game, and a touchdown wouldn’t be surprising, but I’ll happily fade his rushing output against an elite run defense.
Gabriel Davis Over 34.5 Receiving Yards (-105 Caesars)
Over the last four weeks, Gabriel Davis has two games with zero receiving yards and two games with 100+ receiving yards. It might seem random, but it’s actually fairly predictable which weeks he will find success. Davis is 15th in the NFL in deep targets and 10th in average depth of target – his receiving profile is almost entirely go routes.
We’re looking for defenses that play a high rate of single-high coverage when it comes to Davis, and the Patriots fit the mold. New England plays single-high defense at the highest rate in the NFL since Week 11, and that’s perfect for Davis who has a 29.3% air yard share against single-high according to Fantasy Points Data.
Given the high variance nature of Davis’s game, you might be better off just playing an alternate line with higher odds on a higher receiving yardage number. FanDuel is currently offering +270 odds on 60+ receiving yards, and if you’re looking for the home run play, you can find +1100 odds on Davis to finish with 100+ receiving yards.
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