New England Patriots vs. Denver Broncos Same Game Parlay (12/24/23)

Get New England Patriots vs. Denver Broncos same game parlay picks & odds for the (12/24/23) matchup.

New England Patriots vs. Denver Broncos Same Game Parlay Picks

New England Patriots vs. Denver Broncos kicks off Sunday (12/24/23) at 8:15 p.m. EST in Denver as a home game for the Broncos. The Patriots are currently a +7 underdog and +260 on the moneyline while the total is set at 34.5. Expect the Broncos to bounce back in a low-scoring affair while Russell Wilson helps negate the missing production of Javonte Williams, all giving value for a same game parlay in this New England Patriots vs. Denver Broncos matchup.

Leg 1: Under 34.5

The Broncos offensive struggles were on full display again as Russell Wilson continued to fold under pressure against the blitz. The Lions knew this, sending heavy pressure on the line and forcing the ball out of Wilson’s hands faster than he would like. This led to stalled out drives and empty trips, even when against one of the worst secondaries in the league.

Wilson now has to face another tough defensive test, one that thrives in disguise coverages and heavy blitz rates. The Patriots defense ranks sixth in Blitz Rate, yet also able to send a fake and drop back in coverage. Even with poor coverage metrics of 21st in Def Pass DVOA, 23rd Pass Success Rate, and 21st in EPA, the blend of pressure and disguises alone should be enough to slow down the Broncos offense.

On the other end, the Patriots offense has seen a linear progression from Mac Jones to Bailey Zappe per PPF Quarterback Grade. Their metrics still remain putrid, ranking 27th in Off DVOA and 28th in Pass DVOA. The Broncos second level of the defense have made immense strides in coverage metrics, residing in league average territory the second half of the season. A unit that is more than capable of slowing down the anemic Patriots offense.

Leg 2: Denver Broncos Moneyline

Even with Russell Wilson in a position to struggle at times, the Broncos offense will still find more downfield success than the Patriots for a majority of the contest. Still, the struggles are worth noting and play a major reason on why to bypass the spread and take the added security with the Broncos moneyline in a SGP instead.

Luckily for the Broncos, they will have their struggles matched with a Patriots offense that has struggled to generate any sort of consistency. Bailey Zappe may be more aggressive with his downfield throws than Mac Jones, yet he comes with an abundance of turnover worthy plays. Plays that can flip the field in the Broncos favor, being more than enough to squeak the win in what should be a low-scoring game.

Leg 3: Javonte Williams Under 55.5 Rushing Yards

A big reason for the Broncos offensive struggles may be because they will get no help from their ground game. While the Patriots as a whole do not do many things right, they still are an elite run stopping unit who ranks first across the board in Def Rush DVOA, Def Rush Success Rate, Def Rush EPA, as well as fourth in Def Adjusted Line Yards.

That directly affects Javonte Williams ability to find high quality rushing lanes, most likely getting bottled up in the trenches. The Patriots use of the blitz also throws extra bodies at the line, making contact with opposing running backs near the backfield and limiting their downfield progression. Factor in what should be a tight low scoring affair and the Broncos may need to throw at a heavier rate in order to move the ball down the field late in the contest.

Leg 4: Russell Wilson Over 18.5 Pass Completions

With Javonte Williams in a position to get bottled up, as well as having to face a heavy dose of the blitz, Russell Wilson may revert to a more conservative game script that features dump offs and quick outs in order to combat against this. While his passing yardage may take a hit, his completion rate should increase as those types of throws come with a higher catch rate. Especially in dump offs, making a safe quick toss to a leaking running back who is avoiding the backfield pressure in order to punish the blitz.

Same Game Parlay Card For New England Patriots vs. Denver Broncos

Under 34.5
Denver Broncos Moneyline
Javonte Williams Under 55.5 Rushing Yards
Russell Wilson Over 18.5 Pass Completions

Full SGP Odds: +738 ($10 wins $73.80)

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Kody is a sports betting writer here at Lineups. He specializes in college sports as well as the NFL and NBA. He won’t quit believing in the Lions Super Bowl chances even when they are eliminated.

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