New England Patriots vs. Kansas City Chiefs Matchup Preview (10/4/20): Betting Odds, Depth Charts, Live Stream (Watch Online)
We have seen the Chiefs and Patriots play a few times over the last two years with Patrick Mahomes under center. But now we see Cam Newton play this Chiefs team. New England is off to a strong start to the season at 2-1, while the Chiefs are coming off a big win against what is widely considered the next best team in the NFL. Kansas City is 3-0 and are at home welcoming a new-look Patriots team. It is hard to see anyone for the rest of the year being less than touchdown dogs against the Chiefs, as that is what the spread is for this one. The Chiefs are touchdown favorites and the over/under is over 50 aas many games are this weekend. The Patriots offense will certainly have to play better than last weekend as they struggled for about two and a half quarters against the Raiders. Defensively the Patriots struggled against Seattle, which raises the question is this defense up to the task against the power offenses around the league. For odds movement and full matchup history, visit the New England Patriots at Kansas City Chiefs Matchup Page.
Date: Sunday, October 4th, 2020
Time: 4:25 PM ET
Location: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO
TV Coverage: CBS
Patriots vs. Chiefs Live Stream
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New England Patriots: Sony Michel (Q), Shaq Mason (Q), Julian Edelman (P), Isaiah Wynn (Q), Adam Butler (Q), Cody Davis (Q)
Kansas City Chiefs: Chris Jones (Q)
New England Patriots Analysis
Cam Newton has come into New England and shown us that he can still play. He has over 700 yards through the air with two touchdowns, and a 68% completion percentage. His ground numbers haven’t changed much with four touchdowns and 150 yards. The ground game continues to be the Patriots best way of moving the ball, as they are rushing for five yards an attempt as a team, with Sony Michel leading in yards. We have seen Michel, Burhead, and JJ Taylor all get work in White’s absence. He will return this week. Getting receiving help has still been an issue after Julian Edelman and N’Keal Harry. They have conbined for 46 targets, while no other wide receiver or tight end has more than 12. They are getting zero production out of their tight ends, and Damiere Byrd is the third receiving option, but has little production. The defense has not looked as good as the pass, as they are allowing 8.2 yards per attempt and also have allowed 4.6 yards per carry on the ground and 122 yards per game. These numbers may take a hit after Week 4 is over if the Chiefs come out firing like they did last week.
New England Patriots Depth Chart
Kansas City Chiefs Analysis
The Chiefs have been their normal selves to start the season, scoring 30.3 points per game but also holding opponent’s to 20 points per game. This comes with a game against Houston and Baltimore as well, who are both talented offenses. The Chiefs continue to move the ball and have done excellent on third down, converting at a 58% clip. The offense is a fine-tuned machine and despite the odd offseason schedule, they have not misssed a beat. Patrick Mahomes is averaging 292 yards per game and has nine touchdowns. He has also been sacked just twice, which is impressive given the offensive line changes. Clyde Edwards-Helaire is showing why the Chiefs invested in him, but overall the Chiefs are rushing for 4.9 yards per carry and have 423 yards on the ground through three games. In the receiving game, it is the usual suspects. Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill have combined for over 400 yards and have five touchdowns. Mecole Hardman and Sammy Watkins have each had a big game. Edwards-Helaire has looked great in the passing game, and has 16 targets and over 100 yards. Kansas City has dodged the injuries this season and are almost at full strength for this one.
Kansas City Chiefs Depth Chart
Betting Corner: Chiefs -7
Spread: KC -7
Moneyline: KC -300 / NE +250
This is an interesting game and the public is very split on this one. There is a slight edge towards the Patriots covering, but the public heavily believes in the over with this one. Given the over has been extremely friendly for most teams this season, I can see why. Both teams are 2-1 ATS this season, and the over is 2-1 for the Patriots, and 1-2 for the Chiefs. In the last three games between these two, the Patriots and Chiefs have both scored 30+ points, however that was with Tom Brady. This will be the best defense Cam Newton has faced so far this season and this is a test for this receiving core that has been questioned about being good enough. The Chiefs secondary is tough.
New England’s defense was exploited against a good Seattle offense, and there is a chance we see those offseason opt-outs have more of an effect against these types of teams. I do like the over here as the Chiefs should be able to put up points and the Patriots will be able to at least get some drives together with Newton. And this is a game that can be another statement win if they win by more than a touchdown, but I am less confident in the spread on either side.
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Daily Fantasy Picks
In this type of game there are a lot of names who can break out, and the two defenses might just make people go an easier route. There are a lot of high scoring games on this slate where the field will have fairly spread out ownership. New England’s defense isn’t as strong as it was over the last few seasons, and DVOA is looking at them as the 25th ranked defense. New England struggled against the Seattle passing attack, and Tyreek Hill and Mecole Hardman are two home run threats that have a lot of upside. Hill has three games against New England, going for over 100 yards in two of the three, and has four touchdowns. Travis Kelce and Sammy Watkins have been slowed down the most in this meeting, Kelce has been fine from a PPR perspective, but nowehere near the production you’d need to hit the cash lines.
On the Patriots side of things, James White and Julian Edelman stand out. They are the playmakers I expect to be involved the most, although White will be sharing time with the other running backs. Edelman has scored in back to back games against the Chiefs and has 19 targets over the last two meetings. While White hasn’t found te end zone, he has exactly seven targets and five catches in each of the last two matchups and has over 60 all-purpose yards in each. He is a better play on DraftKings with the PPR scoring.