How to Approach Betting the Super Bowl 53
The New England Patriots and Los Angeles Rams Super Bowl is a true battle of old school and new school. The young flashy Sean McVay vs the wise old Billy Belichick. The young talented QB Jared Goff vs the legend himself Tom Brady. The Patriots have rode this underdog train from the media all post season long, but now are getting a lot of love back from the public here after their impressive win vs KC. The Rams on the other side have left a lot of people with a bad taste in their mouth from the no call vs the Saints. Regardless of how you script this narrative, it sets up to be a good one.
I put together 5 bets for the Super Bowl. I always cap myself at 5 bets. You can find yourself getting tangled in a web of hundreds of different bets to make and sometimes it can make people lose their minds. Tie in SB box pools and you’ll find yourself much more heavily invested in a single game than you would all year. Keep in mind; it is only that, a single game. If you’re a recreational bettor, enjoy the five bets I’m giving you and here and stay within your means. If you’re an avid sports bettor, I emphasize staying in your financial lane. This game can make people expand their wallets and for what? To tell your piker friends or guys from work at the water cooler that you won so much on the Super Bowl? This makes no sense. Enjoy betting the Super Bowl, but don’t ruin the party by betting way too much and having your risk severely outweigh your tolerance for loss. My advice is to make the five bets I mention below at 2/5 of your standard unit. This will give you five bets totaling 2 entire units. (Ex. If you typically bet $100 per game. Bet $40 (2/5 of 100) on each of the five bets. Your risk will total 2 units, which still gives you more than normal upside without the sick to your stomach feeling if they miss. Bankroll management is a vital part of betting and the Super Bowl doesn’t get removed from this. Stay true to yourself and don’t risk more than you’re comfortable with. With all this in mind, let’s crack these five bets below.
SB Bet #1 – Todd Gurely to Score a TD -125
This price is wildly low for me. I still see this number at my book and it is an absolute steal. I get the argument for Gurley not being himself recently and dealing with CJ Anderson in a time share, but this is the Super Bowl and the Rams paid Todd Gurely a ton of money in this past offseason to come through in a game like this. NE is tough to score on from the ground, but Gurley can also score coming out of the backfield. In this spot, you’re getting a severely reduced price. This is still a guy who has 4 TD in his last 3 games scoring in all of them. Expect McVay to get Gurley opportunities to find space and especially feed him in the red zone. This price is too good to pass up. Don’t wait on this price. It will only go up from here.
SB Bet #2 – Sony Michel Most Rushing Yards -115
I look at this price, and I find myself trying to collect my drool. The Rams are incorporating a time share a RB where they are playing the hot hand from drive to drive. When push comes to shove, I would expect Gurley to be leaned on, but nonetheless CJ Anderson is still a fixture in that backfield. If Michel’s only real rushing threats are both of them, it’s worth noting that Michel has 53 carries in his last two games and Anderson and Gurley combined have 61. Tremendous upside on the potential for carries for Michel. Now let’s talk game flow. The Pats have established the run and kept two tremendous offenses on the sidelines for much of their previous two games. How can you expect any different from tem here? They will lean on Michel on the ground and we only have to lay -115 knowing we will get more carries and more commitment to the run from the Pats vs the Rams.
SB Bet #3 – Number of Rams to record a rush attempt OVER 4.5 -120
Let’s start with what we know here. We will be getting 3 carries in this game. One will be Gurley, one will be CJ, and one will be Goff. Goff has had a rushing attempt in every game this year in case you weren’t aware. Remember, we don’t need yards here, simply a rush attempt in the box score. Now, let’s chat on how we get the other two carries. Robert Woods has had a carry in each of his last five games. The Rams love the WR sweeps and reverses and we can count on Woods to have one of these. We are now at 4. This is the Super Bowl, so this means anything goes. The craziest of the craziest run out in these games. All we need is a carry from Cooks, Reynolds, any of the TEs, or maybe even Sam Hekker the punter who McVay loves to fake with. Both Rams playoff games this season have had 5 or more different players record a carry. I like this trend to continue here in a winner take all, where the sneakiest of plays always surface. 5 different players to record a carry not only is attainable, it’s very likely and at a softly vigged line, I love our odds.
SB Bet #4 – Total Sacks in the game UNDER 3.5 +118
Typically in a SB, you will see this number at 4.5. This has to make you wonder a bit on why this would be 3.5. I’ll tell you why. For starters, Brady hasn’t been sacked in both post season games. He is getting the ball out faster than he has in years and consistently too. Brady has only been actually sacked once in his last three games. Clearly the O-line is holding up and while the Rams present a threat with Donald and Suh, I like the Pats game plan to neutralize this by quick passes all game long. Let’s talk about Jared Goff and the Rams O-Line as well. Goff has also been sacked only once in his last three games. The Rams are another team that his protecting the QB and Goff is delivering the ball very quickly. Both QBs have combined to be sacked twice in their last six games. I am playing the price here. We have a solid dog price on an under in which makes a lot more sense than the over with two QBs who have great protection and release the ball very quickly after the snap. My advice here though is waiting until later in the week or even game day to bet this. You’ll get an even better price. Many will see this late and think they only need 4 sacks to win, but we know better.
SB Bet #5 – Rams +2.5 -106
You didn’t think you would only get props and not get to root for any team or total did you? I wouldn’t leave you hanging like that. Being someone who always relies on the number and price, this is a simple one for me. This is absolutely a coin flip game. Don’t let anyone tell you differently. The public has been all over the Patriots from open and with some more money this may even go to 3. Everyone is now riding the Pats train after failing to realize the Pats were better than most thought the past few weeks. The market has adjusted and this leaves plenty of value on the Rams. The Pats are 2-3 in their last five SBs and while impressive they keep coming back, they haven’t exactly been a wrecking ball once they are in it.
Take away the ridiculous Falcons implosion and the Seahawks forgetting that they can run the ball on their opponent’s one yard line, and the Pats would be 0-5 in their last five. I get the woulda, coulda, shoulda argument, here but the numbers are what they are. The Rams winning would be huge for the league. I’m not saying the Rams will get even more help from the Refs, but the Rams paid all this money to players and if they close out a ring, it proves that in a league dominated by good coaching, that star players are needed to win too. The Rams winning would be huge for the players as well, as you’ll begin to see other teams pay mountains of money to build like the Rams did this past offseason. This also creates a good narrative around the young head coach and how other teams should follow suit. The long short here is from a numbers/analytics/narrative standpoint, it’s a coin flip. Take the points.