New England Patriots vs. Miami Dolphins kicks off this Sunday at 1:00pm EST in Miami as a home game for the Dolphins. The Patriots are currently a +9 underdog and +360 on the moneyline while the total is set at 47. Read on for more New England Patriots vs. Miami Dolphins best bets and predictions as the Dolphins current spread serves as a valuable Wong Teaser piece.
New England Patriots vs. Miami Dolphins Prediction & Best Bet
Lucky for the Dolphins they are facing a far lesser quality of defense in a rematch against the New England Patriots than what they experienced against the Philadelphia Eagles. In fact, even Bill Belichick was aware of how far behind the Patriots are in being able to slow them down that he opted into the idea of running a prevent defense in the midfield and tried to lock it up when the Dolphins got to the red zone. An unsuccessful strategy as the Dolphins went on to win 24-17.
Even worse for the Patriots, they will have to try and slow down the Dolphins without two productive playmakers in Matthew Judon and Christian Gonzalez this time around. Since their injuries, the Patriots have steadily dipped in their defensive metrics and now rank 23rd in Def Pass DVOA, 25th in Def Pass Success Rate, and 25th in Def Pass EPA. All while running one of the heaviest rates of the blitz, leaving their middle exposed for the speedy Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle.
Speaking of Hill and Waddle, both are currently dealing with injuries and are listed as questionable. While Waddle is trending toward playing, Hill is raising serious questions on his availability. Hill is one of the few skill players worth more than a point to the spread, potentially being a big downgrade to their offense should he be held out. I still lean toward the Dolphins chances of pulling this out without him, but I am taking the added security of putting them in a Wong Teaser in order to get them at -3 instead of the current spread of -9.
This is in large part of avoiding a potential back door opportunity as the Dolphins defense will allow the anemic Patriots offense to be competitive. The Dolphins currently rank 24th in Def DVOA as a whole, mightily struggling to contain both the pass and run as they rank well below average in DVOA, EPA, and Success Rate in both categories. The Patriots offense are no world beaters, but they do come into this one with some confidence after successfully moving the ball against the Bills regressing defense.
New England Patriots vs. Miami Dolphins Prediction & Best Bet: Dolphins -3 Teaser Piece
New England Patriots vs. Miami Dolphins Betting Odds
While the Dolphins only won by seven in their first contest against the Patriots, oddsmakers still believe they will find more success in the rematch by opening them as a -8.5 favorite. Bettors believe that opened too low, backing Miami up to as high as -9.5. That number has since ticked back down in light of the Tyreek Hill news, potentially dropping more should he be ruled out.
As for the total, points are expected to be scored at a moderate pace as oddsmakers opened the number at 47. Bettors have yet to take a firm stand on either side of the number, keeping it the same since the opener as of writing.
New England Patriots vs. Miami Dolphins Key Injuries
Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle headline the injury report news with both currently listed as questionable heading into the contest.
New England Patriots vs. Miami Dolphins Key Matchups
Can Raheem Mostert keep the offense moving if Hill and Waddle are held back due to injury?
Raheem Mostert Vs. Patriots Rush Defense
Raheem Mostert is currently listed as questionable as well as he deals with an ankle injury, but recent reports have him trending towards play. Should he be good to go, Mostert serves as their lead back and will take a brunt of the rushing load while Jeff Wilson backs him up.
Raheem Mostert is impossible to bring down pic.twitter.com/lMYADs4H43
— King of Phinland🐬👑 (@KingOfPhinland) October 20, 2023
The Patriots field a respectable rush defense, ranking second in Def Rush Success Rate, 10th in Def Rush DVOA, and 12th in Def Rush EPA. Those metrics don’t tell the full story as Mostert will still find himself with plenty of open field as the Patriots drop back in coverage like we saw in game one.