New England Patriots vs. San Francisco 49ers Matchup Preview (10/25/20): Betting Odds, Depth Charts, Live Stream (Watch Online)
The New England Patriots will take on the San Francisco 49ers at home in a tough defensive matchup for both teams. The Patriots are 2-3 on the season and need a win to stay competitive in the AFC East. The 49ers have been dealing with injuries but are currently last in the NFC West with a 3-3 record. For odds movement and full matchup history, visit the New England Patriots vs. San Francisco 49ers Matchup Page.
Date: Sunday, October 25th, 2020
Time: 4:25 PM ET
Location: Gillette Stadium – Foxborough, Massachusetts
TV Coverage: CBS
49ers vs. Patriots Live Stream
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San Francisco 49ers: OUT: Raheem Mostert (ankle), Jimmie Ward (quadriceps), Jaquiski Tartt (groin), Kwon Alexander (ankle) Questionable to play: Trent Williams (ankle), Jeff Wilson (calf)
New England Patriots: Questionable to play: Derek Rivers (back), Shaq Mason (calf), Kyle Dugger (ankle), Julian Edelman (knee), Adam Butler (elbow), OUT: Carl Davis (concussion), Sony Michel (COVID), James Ferentz (COVID)
San Francisco 49ers Analysis
The San Francisco 49ers are 3-3 in the last place of the competitive NFC West. They have dealt with many injuries this season, and continue that into next week with Raheem Mostert out after reinjuring his ankle. The 49ers got back on track last week with a divisional upset against the Los Angeles Rams. Next week, they will face another tough defense with the New England Patriots.
The 49ers bread and butter offense has been going through the run game. While their attempts may not currently show it, they rushed the ball the second most amount of times last season behind the Ravens. Off of 27.5 attempts per game, they still are a top ten team in rushing yards and touchdowns per game. However, the injury of Raheem Mostert for a second time this season will hurt them against the Patriots defense and maybe too much for Jerick McKinnon to handle in the backfield.
Garappolo has struggled this season with injury too, missing two games between weeks three and four. Not to mention, he struggled so hard against Miami that C.J Beathard came in to replace him. On the contrary, last week he had a successful outing with 268 yards and three touchdowns with zero interceptions and zero sacks. Now that he is fully healthy, it looks like he should be in for a great week against his former team.
San Francisco’s offensive line has struggled this season in both formats. They have a below-average run block with one of the worst “stuffed” rates of 23%. Plus, their sack rate of 7.4% is one of the worst in the league too. They have allowed 18 sacks this season but should be able to contain the below-average New England defensive line to give Garapollo more time against their outstanding secondary.
The 49ers’ defense is continuously one of the best in the league and will be a big factor next week. They allow only 212 passing yards per game and a little over 100 rushing yards per game, two of the best in the league. They have averaged an allowed point total of 21.7 to their opponents. Their defense will be a key part of helping this team come out with a victory on Sunday.
San Francisco 49ers Depth Chart
New England Patriots Analysis
The New England Patriots have struggled with a tough schedule so far into the season, but have had their serious doubts. They also lost their starting quarterback for one week due to COVID and forced their bye week. But, their loss last week to the Denver Broncos is seriously concerning for this team. They will have a challenge next week against the San Francisco 49ers’ team.
Cam Newton has certainly seen his ups and downs this season. He started the year very well in his first three games with a close average of 300 total yards per game. He also put up four rushing touchdowns through the first three weeks of the season. His ability to run the ball has certainly benefitted, but his lack of production in the passing game does not bode well for the offense, considering he only has two passing touchdowns on the year.
The New England Patriots’ defense is ranked 14th in total defensive efficiency but has helped this team out a lot. They only allow 22 points per game on top of 219 passing yards behind last year’s defensive player of the year, Stephen Gilmore. But, the Patriots’ below-average defensive line is a concern against the run-heavy 49ers team. Luckily, the 49ers are without Raheem Mostert and will have to rely on Jerik McKinnon and Jeff Wilson.
The Patriots’ run game is arguably the heaviest skewed run game in the NFL. They rush the ball the most times per game over any other team and stand second in rushing yards and rushing touchdowns. The backfield of James White, Rex Burkhead, and Sony Michel provide a lot of depth to their team with the fact that Cam Newton runs the ball a healthy amount per game as well. But, Sony Michel will not be present next week due to COVID-19, so they will have to focus on the other two backs.
The New England Patriots have gone through a rough schedule against the Seahawks, Raiders, and Chiefs. But, they are still adjusting on offense while having been lackadaisical on defense. The 49ers will be a tough team to play considering they have cleaned up their act on offense and their defense is still one of the better defenses in the league. The Patriots will have to make use of both the pass and run game while containing the 49ers run game next Sunday.
New England Patriots Depth Chart
Betting Corner 49ers +2.5
Spread: +/- 2.5
Moneyline: 49ers +138, Patriots -167
Spread: 49ers +2.5
Moneyline: 49ers +138
For this game, I like the 49ers since they have a consistently good team on both sides of the ball. I’m not saying the Patriots don’t have that, but the 49ers can pass the ball as well as they can run it. This one will be close, but the 49ers are 2-0 against the spread on the road which gives me confidence that they can cover. Plus, they need a win to stay competitive in the NFC West and I think they could take it.
The over/under is fairly set at 45 for this game, but I still think it will go under. Both of these teams have great defenses and they love to run the ball. I think this will not be a high scoring game, but it will be a close one. The under should be the better bet for Sunday.
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Love/Hate Fantasy Picks
Jerick McKinnon will have control of the backfield next week against the Patriots. He averaged double-digit figures at the beginning of the year without Mostert and Coleman, and I think we can see a great performance from him this week. Consider him an RB2 filler or a flex position.
Rex Burkhead tops all fantasy waiver wires due to the fact that he has a “high” average point rank of 10.9 fantasy points per game. But, most of his points came from one game where he put up 34.8 points. The 49ers defensive line is one of the better lines in the league and would not count on Burkhead to do anything for fantasy.