New Mexico State Vs. Bowling Green Predictions, Picks, Quick Lane Bowl Odds (12/26/22)

After taking a break for Christmas day, we kick off another week of bowl season with one lone game on deck. This Monday features the Quick Lane Bowl as the New Mexico State Aggies and the Bowling Green Falcons battle it out for our viewing pleasure. While it’s not the most thrilling game on paper, it needs to be reminded that any football is good football before we kiss it goodbye for months. In a battle of mediocracy, who will come out on top?

New Mexico State Vs. Bowling Green Odds

Oddsmakers initially believed the New Mexico State would come out on top, opening the Aggies as a -1.5 favorite. In light of question marks at quarterback, bettors have been quick to flip the script by taking the Falcons up to as high as -3.5. While New Mexico State never had a true number one quarterback by deploying a duo throughout the game, losing Diego Pavia is a big blow for their already struggling offense.

Speaking of a struggling offense, oddsmakers believed points would come at a premium by opening the total at 50.5. Bettors are in agreement, taking the total down to as low as 48.5. Bowling Green found some recent success to end the season, but that was against mentally checked out units with postseason aspirations secured. Will they continue to find success against the Aggies?

New Mexico State Vs. Bowling Green Prediction & Pick

The Pick: Under 50.5, down to 48.5

I don’t believe so. But then again, I don’t believe the Aggies offense will find much success either. Initially grabbing the opener of under 50.5, I still like this down to the current number of 48.5 for a smaller wager.

Even if New Mexico State’s quarterback Diego Pavia is good to go, their offense has been one of the more anemic units in football. Deploying a dual approach all season, both Pavia and Gavin Frakes have only combined for 2,019 yards, 15 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions. Most players have cleared that themselves.

Should he not, then this plays even better for our under tickets as Frakes has been by far the worse of the two by accounting for seven of the combined interceptions. Their pass attack has been missing all season, ranking near dead last in Off Pass Success Rate and 114th on Passing Downs situations.

On the off chance they luck into an Explosive play, an area they shockingly excel in, then they have been around average in putting up points on the board. This is a key metric to watch as Bowling Green will have to cut off NMSU’s early drives before getting in danger territory. Bowling Green ranks near dead last in Def Finishing Drives. 

Not only are they near dead last in Def Finishing Drives, but Bowling Green is also one of the worst Off Finishing Drive units as well. This bodes especially well for our under ticket as any Bowling Green drive stalled out near the red zone means that New Mexico State will have to go the length of the field and they have mainly failed at sustaining any consistency.

New Mexico State Vs. Bowling Green Key Matchups

Can New Mexico State’s defense limit the recently successful Bowling Green offense?

Bowling Green scoring production vs New Mexico State defense

Successful putting it modestly, mainly referencing their ability to score 42 points against MAC champion Toledo and a few scores against the runner up Ohio Bobcats. While they were mainly checked out, Bowling Green still managed a few scores against far superior competition.

Still, this offense is one of the worst units in football. The Falcons rank near dead last in Success Rate, failing to sustain any consistent success in either the pass or ground game. Their lack of sustainability is correlated with their tendency to shoot themselves in the foot by coughing up the ball. They rank near dead last in Off Havoc.

With New Mexico State fielding a shockingly successful pass defense, Bowling Green should once again find little success on offense against a motivated Aggies squad.

Verdict

Take the under at no lower than 48.5 in what will be a defensive slugfest. Havoc will be the key metric to watch on both ends should both teams be able take care of the ball. If we can avoid fluke defensive scores, then we should cruise to the window and cash our under tickets as both offenses are as bad as it gets in sustainability.