New Orleans Saints First Round Draft Targets: Will Saints Add Quarterback Or Focus On Other Needs?
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The Saints made a blockbuster trade with the Eagles a few weeks ago to acquire a second first-round pick in this year’s draft, and it sets them up for the opportunity to add some serious talent to their roster. Rumors are swirling about a second move being in store for New Orleans as they could trade up for an offensive tackle or quarterback, but even if they stay put, they can land some high-value starting-caliber players in this class.
Saints’ Offseason Round-Up
Unfortunately for Saints fans, this offseason was more defined by departures than acquisitions. The loss of All-Pro left tackle Terron Armstead creates a massive need up-front, while Marcus Williams will be difficult to replace on the back-end of defense even after the acquisition of Marcus Maye. Daniel Sorenson was also signed at safety to provide some depth.
The Saints were able to restructure some contracts to retain critical players in quarterback Jameis Winston and wide receiver Tre’Quan Smith. Still, they didn’t make many big-time moves over the free agency period. The most significant addition to the offense could be Michael Thomas if he can recover from his latest injuries. His relationship with the organization appears to be in a better place than it once was.
125 receptions. 1,405 yards. 9 touchdowns.@Cantguardmike was unstoppable this season 🔥 pic.twitter.com/hC1KT89HqQ
— New Orleans Saints (@Saints) January 31, 2019
Saints’ Remaining Team Needs
Left Tackle: As things currently stand, the Saints are slated to start James Hurst at left tackle. To Hurts’s credit, he’s been very serviceable for the team since joining the roster as an undrafted free agent in 2019. Armstead missed half of the season last year, and Hurst was solid in fill-in duty.
While Hurst is a solid option to get by with, the left tackle is a critical position, and it’s easy to see why the Saints would be looking for a higher-upside option in the draft after losing a perennial Pro Bowler in Armstead.
Wide Receiver: Michael Thomas’s potential return looms large for the Saints after missing the entirety of last season, but even if he can get back to his First-Team All-Pro form, the Saints would benefit from adding talent to their pass-catching corps.
Even after resigning Tre’Quan Smith, wide receiver is a significant need after the group struggled to be consistent last season. That’s especially true after Alvin Kamara was arrested for battery allegations earlier this offseason and could still be suspended. Kamara is a massive part of the team’s passing offense.
Safety: Marcus Williams’s departure is significant as he has been one of the best safeties in the NFL over the past several years. Marcus Maye was brought in to help replace some of his impact, but Maye could be utilized more as a box safety after Malcolm Jenkins retired, and he’s still recovering from an Achilles injury.
Daniel Sorenson was signed to be a part of the secondary, but he’s likely to be more of a part-time defensive player and special teams ace. Keep an eye on Tyrann Mathieu, as he’s been repeatedly linked to New Orleans. As of now, safety profiles as a significant need, especially with Chauncey Gardner-Johnson and P.J. Williams set to become free agents in 2023.
Marcus Williams gets the call that he’s a Raven.
(via IG/j_mitch05) pic.twitter.com/zOUSQ2yey4
— Jonas Shaffer (@jonas_shaffer) March 15, 2022
Honorable Mentions: Interior Offensive Line, Running Back, Defensive Tackle
Mickey Loomis Draft History and Tendencies
Building Through the Trenches: The Saints have spent at least one first or second-round pick on an offensive or defensive lineman every year, dating back to 2015. They have had great success with some of those players, including Sheldon Rankins, Ryan Ramczyk, and Marcus Davenport.
With their needs on the offensive line, you can expect the Saints to continue this trend and likely use one of their two first-round picks on an offensive tackle to replace Armstead. The defensive line could also be a targeted position, but likely not until the middle rounds.
Relative Athletic Score: The Saints tend to draft high-level athletes, and that remained the case in 2021. Every player the team drafted last year had a RAS of 9.0 or higher (0-10 scale) except for quarterback Ian Book.
Outside of Ryan Ramczyk, who didn’t test at the combine, each of the Saints’ first-round picks dating back to 2017 has been a player with a RAS of 9.0 or higher. While the Saints may have different in-house metrics than RAS, they prefer high-level athletes with their premium picks.
3-Cone Drill: It’s rare that an NFL team will have such an evident preference towards one individual drill as the Saints do with the three-cone drill, but it’s been a big point emphasis for them. The three-cone drill measures change-of-direction ability, and many scouts consider it the most significant drill at the combine.
A study on SaintsWire showed the team’s propensity to value 3-cone drill results highly, and I’ll keep this in mind when discussing options for this year’s draft.
Trade-Up Possibilities
Another article on SaintsWire discussed the team’s preferences at quarterback with a checklist from Bill Parcells utilized by Sean Payton, including seven key factors. Only two quarterbacks met all seven thresholds – Kenny Pickett and Desmond Ridder.
While that doesn’t necessarily mean they will trade up for one of those quarterbacks, their respective high-level athletic testing, starting and winning experience, and efficient statistical success should be to the liking of the Saints’ brass even with Payton no longer in New Orleans.
The other potential option for the Saints would be a trade up for one of the top offensive tackle prospects. Evan Neal didn’t participate in athletic testing, but the new Saints’ assistant coach and former Alabama offensive line coach Doug Marrone would present intriguing links to the franchise for Neal.
Ikem Ekwonu’s athletic testing may fall below preferred thresholds for the Saints as he had just an 8.51 RAS and ran a 7.82-second 3-cone drill that ranks in just the 49th percentile, rated with a 5.59 RAS.
Peter King asked Mickey Loomis about his plan for this draft, and the Saints general manager said, “we could sit where we are right now and get three of the top 20 or 25 on our board.” This NFL draft class is very fluid with tons of depth, and there’s a high chance the Saints could land one of their top 20 or 25 players with their #49 pick and their two first-round selections.
Overall, another trade seems unlikely for the Saints with their needs across the board. The Saints thrived on a loaded 2017 draft class, but many of those players are reaching the end of their respective rookie contracts, and it’s time for the team to replenish the roster with young talent.
Top First-Round Prospects
OT Trevor Penning, Northern Iowa: Penning graded as one of the best athletes in this entire draft class with a RAS of 9.95. His 7.25-second 3-cone drill earned a RAS tag of 9.85 as it was in the 98th percentile for offensive linemen. He also rated in the 97th percentile for the 40-yard dash. Penning has the ideal size for the offensive tackle position and is an elite athlete.
I have concerns over the jump in competition level for Penning as he transitions from the FCS to the NFL, especially as his technique still needs work. He will be a constant threat to be penalized in the NFL early on as he was already flagged often at Northern Iowa. Still, with his athletic upside, it’s easy to see the Saints buying into Penning in the first round.
#1 OT #RAS 2022
Trevor Penning is a OT prospect in the 2022 draft class. He scored a 9.96 RAS out of a possible 10.00. This ranked 6 out of 1216 OT from 1987 to 2022. https://t.co/0NX5hMXzRC #RAS pic.twitter.com/tITckWeEQF
— Kent Lee Platte (@MathBomb) April 13, 2022
OT Bernhard Raimann, Central Michigan: A former tight end who has only been playing offensive tackle for a couple of years, Raimann was born in Austria and served in their military before committing to play college football at Central Michigan. Raimann is already 24 years old, which is definitely on the older side, but he’s a reasonably polished player in a technical sense despite being new to the game.
Raimann also fits what the Saints look for from an athletic standpoint. He tested with a RAS of 9.87 and ran a 7.46-second 3-cone drill, earning a RAS of 9.06. That 3-cone also ranked in the 86th percentile for offensive tackles. Raimann’s broad jump of 117” was the most impressive part of his testing as that landed in the 98th percentile. I have Raimann ranked over Penning, but the range of his draft outcomes has been extensive across the industry.
WR Chris Olave, Ohio State: If the Saints want to spend one of their two first-round picks on a wide receiver, I see Chris Olave as the most likely option. Unfortunately, Olave didn’t do agility testing at the combine or his pro day, but he rated with an 8.69 RAS overall and ran an impressive 86th percentile 4.39-second 40-yard dash.
Olave is a refined route-runner who knows how to create separation from defenders. His expansive route tree, high-level football IQ, and high-end separation abilities help him profile as someone who can win from the slot or on the boundary. That versatility only boosts his projection to the NFL. He projects as an excellent WR2, and if Michael Thomas can get back to full health, the Saints could have one of the most-improved wide receiver groups in football with him and Olave.
Our boy Chris Olave giving Surtain the business.
Sensational performance from Olave during the 2020 playoff. pic.twitter.com/twhF5Tur6D
— JetPack Galileo (@JetPackGalileo) April 19, 2022
C Tyler Linderbaum, Iowa: The Saints have rarely been linked to Linderbaum through the pre-draft process, but I see him as an ideal fit for their offense. Current starting center Erik McCoy is a free agent in 2023, Andrus Peat has struggled to stay healthy, and 2020 first-round pick Cesar Ruiz has disappointed so far. The interior of the offensive line is a sneaky need for the team.
Linderbaum was one of the best players in college football last season, and he can very quickly become one of the best centers in the NFL like Creed Humphrey did last year. Linderbaum’s athletic profile also helps for the Saints – he had a RAS of 8.84 and ran a 7.13-second 3-cone drill which gave him a RAS of 10.0.
S Lewis Cine, Georgia: Cine has been one of the biggest risers in the pre-draft process, and the 2022 CFP Championship MVP is a likely first-round pick. Cine led the Bulldogs with 73 tackles last season, and he’s described as a “heat-seeking missile” who flies to the ball and makes vicious hits. He’s also adept in coverage all over the field and has the versatility the Saints covet in their safeties.
Cine is an elite athlete as he tested with a RAS of 9.92. While he didn’t run the coveted 3-cone drill, Cine tested in the 95th percentile with an impressive 4.37-second 40-yard dash and landed in the 96th percentile with a 133” broad jump. Cine is an elite athlete who would fill a critical need in a defense that highly prioritizes the safety positions.
Lewis Cine’s closing speed 👀🔥pic.twitter.com/7pyPl05cGB
— Damian Parson (@DP_NFL) April 20, 2022
S Daxton Hill, Michigan: The other safety that the Saints might consider is Daxton Hill, as he fits the team’s athletic preferences in the draft. Hill tested with a 9.06 RAS and was off the charts with a 3-cone drill that landed in the 97th percentile and earned a 9.91 RAS. Hill is a tad undersized at 6’0”, 191 lbs, but his closest athletic comparison on MockDraftable is the recently retired Malcolm Jenkins, who was highly productive for the Saints.
Daxton Hill brings a diverse skillset to the table and has the type of versatility the Saints look for in their safeties. He’s capable of playing the slot at a high level, serving as a rangy free safety in various coverage schemes, and even filling in as a boundary defender in a pinch. Hill should be more universally viewed as a first-round talent, and I wouldn’t be shocked if the Saints select him as high as #16, given his athletic traits and how he fits their defense.
