New Orleans Saints vs. Atlanta Falcons NFL Player Props & Picks (11/26/23)

Get Saints vs. Falcons player prop picks & odds for the (11/26/23) matchup

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Saints vs. Falcons Player Prop Picks

The Atlanta Falcons (4-6) play host to their NFC South division rivals the New Orleans Saints (5-5) on Sunday (11/26/23) at 1 p.m. EST in a game that will have major playoff implications. This game is expected to be a low-scoring affair with an over/under set at 41.5 points. That will impact the best player prop bets in this game. This article analyzes the betting odds for player prop bets and recommends the best Saints vs. Falcons player prop bets.

Alvin Kamara over 36.5 receiving yards (-114 at FanDuel)

Alvin Kamara is one of the best pass-catching running backs of all time and he is on a record-setting pace as a receiver this season. He is averaging a career-high 7.14 receptions on eight targets per game. Those are wide receiver numbers, which is not uncommon for Kamara in his career, but he is on another level this season.

From a betting standpoint, Kamara has been more consistent on his yardage than he has on his receptions. He has hit the over on his yards in six out of seven games but has only hit the over on his receptions in four out of seven (his overall numbers are buttressed by two games with double-digit catches). While we like his chances to go over 4.5 receptions as well, we prefer to bet on the yardage in this matchup.

The Falcons have been good against pass-catching running backs this season. They are allowing just 26.1 receiving yards on 3.30 receptions per game to opposing running backs, both top 8 marks in the league. However, they were much better earlier in the season than they have been recently.

In their last four games, the Falcons have allowed two different RBs (Rachaad White and Alexander Mattison) to gain at least 49 receiving yards. In their last six games, they have allowed five different RBs to hit the over on their receiving yards (White, Mattison, Dameon Pierce, Brian Robinson Jr. and Derrick Henry).

Kamara is significantly more dangerous through the air than any of those backs, and he should be even more involved in the passing game now that Michael Thomas is on IR. We also expect a generally pass-heavy game plan from New Orleans, as Atlanta is 30th in DVOA against the pass compared to 15th against the run. That expected volume combined with his talent and recent performance make this a very solid bet.

Drake London over 4.5 receptions (+120 at DraftKings)

We love finding prop bets we like at plus money, and this is our favorite one in this game. Drake London was developing a nice rapport with Desmond Ridder before Ridder was benched for Taylor Heinicke. He had five or more catches in four straight games before Heinicke took over under center. Now the Falcons have gone back to Ridder, and we expect him and London to pick up where they left off.

The Saints have surrendered at least five catches to an opposing WR in three of their last four games and in seven of their 10 games overall this season. That sets up well for London to have a high-volume day as a pass catcher, especially with the Falcons other starting WR, Mack Hollins, ruled out with an ankle injury.

London also benefits in this matchup from the absence of Marshon Lattimore, who suffered an ankle injury in his last game and also has been ruled out for this week. The Saints other starting outside corner is Pauslon Adebo, who is having an excellent season but is still not quite the same talent as Lattimore.

The biggest hesitation here is that we are betting on the Falcons’ offense to create enough volume of passing plays for London to get the targets he will need to hit this number. For one of the most run-heavy offenses in the league facing one of the best defenses in the league, that is a tough ask. But when the Falcons do throw the ball, London is going to be their top target. At +120 odds, the value on this bet is worth the risk.

Jonnu Smith anytime TD (+375 at Caesars)

Our favorite flyer on an anytime TD in this game is Jonnu Smith. As frustrating as it is to Kyle Pitts’ fantasy owners, the Falcons love to use Smith in a variety of ways, especially in the red zone. The Saints have given up six touchdowns to opposing tight ends this season, tied for the most in the league. At +375 odds, we like the value on a Smith anytime TD better than any other player in this game.

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Noah hails from Philadelphia and is a diehard Philly sports fan. He graduated from Penn where he was a sports writer and editor for the student newspaper and also spent a summer covering the Baltimore Orioles for MLB.com. He has been playing fantasy sports since before live stats were a thing, and he has enjoyed learning the nuances of DFS in recent years. As a current resident of Florida, he is hoping the wave of sports betting legalization will eventually reach his home state.

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