New York Giants vs. Las Vegas Raiders NFL Player Props & Picks (11/5/23)
The New York Giants are looking to revive their season after a cold start, while the Las Vegas Raiders are looking for a boost after becoming the first team this season to fire their head coach. With both teams facing hard questions about their future, let’s dig into some Giants vs. Raiders player props, including takes on stars Saquon Barkley and Maxx Crosby.
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Giants vs. Raiders Player Prop Picks
Both the Giants and Raiders have dealt with quarterback injuries, which have seriously impacted their offensive performance. With the situations up in the air once again, let’s see how players on both sides might be affected.
Saquon Barkley 100+ Rushing + Receiving Yards (-125)
When the Giants were either unable or unwilling to pass the ball last week, as Tommy Devito took over at quarterback, Barkley had an absolute field day in the ugly loss. He wasn’t particularly efficient, but he ran the ball 36 times and even snagged three of the six total completions from Giants passers on the day.
Now, Daniel Jones is potentially set to come back, so the Giants won’t run solely through Barkley if that is the case. But he should still be a major factor in the run game, as well as the pass game, as the Giants seek to ease Jones back into the offense. Grabbing some quick wins on easy throws to Barkley could be a great way to get Jones up to speed, especially against a very mediocre Raiders defense that should provide them with plenty of opportunities.
As far as rushing production, which isn’t the sole driver for this prop, but definitely the primary one, Barkley has every chance to put in a strong shift. The Giants offensive line doesn’t really square up favorably with anyone. But this week, it’s as close as it’ll ever be.
The Raiders rank 29th or worse in Rush defense EPA, DVOA and success rate, as well as defensive line yards. So there have been very few units that are as categorically bad at stopping the run. Barkley is also eighth in the league in yards per contact despite having played in just five games. He’s more than able to create for himself, and should definitely have a nice day against a unit that is unprepared to deal with his athletic ability.
Aidan O’Connell Over 212.5 Passing Yards (-115)
O’Connell had a rough debut against the Los Angeles Chargers, but he still racked up 238 yards. He looked a bit more comfortable in relief against the Bears, as he completed 76.9% of his passes and even tossed his first NFL touchdown pass.
He’ll have the services of Davante Adams, and while Adams has slumped a bit statistically, catching passes from a quarterback other than Jimmy Garoppolo could be a positive refresher. Adams broke free for what should have been multiple long touchdowns against the Lions, only for Garoppolo to miss him catastrophically. Maybe O’Connell can avoid that fate.
The Giants have also allowed opposing passers, including Zach Wilson and Sam Howell, to clear this number, despite their teams scoring just 13 and seven points, respectively. In fact, the quarterback facing the Giants has eclipsed this total in three of the past four games. Josh Allen, in a freak letdown performance, was the only QB who failed to do so. New York’s pass defense is legitimately awful, ranking second in blitz rate but just 10h in pressure. So it’s no surprise that this keeps happening.
As bad as the Giants defense is, the Raiders run game might be worse. They’re 31st in EPA and 27th in DVOA. Whether they like it or not, Vegas might be forced to go to the air with O’Connell. He can pick on a quietly talented pass-catching group including Adams, Jakobi Meyers and rookie tight end Michael Mayer. O’Connell had a great college career and a nice preseason. He’s shown to some extent he can run an offense. This week against a weak defense, he could break through.
Maxx Crosby Over 0.75 Sacks (+124)
Finally, we’ve come to the defensive prop of the article. We get to invest in one of the best edge-rushing talents in the league. Crosby is up to 6.5 sacks on the season, and should be able to register another in this game against a Giants offensive line that ranks dead last in the NFL in adjusted sack rate.
Not only do the Giants do a terrible job protecting Daniel Jones, but he doesn’t help his own case; 30.8% of pressures of Jones turn into sacks. That’s the worst rate in the league among qualifying passers. He’s been sacked 28 times, second-most in the league to Washington’s Sam Howell. But it’s even worse for Jones when you dig into the numbers.
Howell has been sacked a ridiculous 41 times. But he’s done it in 369 dropbacks across eight games. That’s just over five sacks per game coming at a rate of just about once every nine dropbacks. For Jones, who has played five games and dropped back 197 times, those figures are 5.6 sacks per game, essentially one every seven times he drops back to throw.
The Raiders’ pass rush does not grade well, but given the Giants line and Jones’s collective ineptitude, it’s hard to imagine them completely failing to get home. Given that Crosby is by far the team’s most productive rusher- second on the team behind his 6.5 sacks are several players with just one – he’s a great bet to register at least one QB takedown in this game.
