The Las Vegas Raiders (3-5) play host the New York Giants (2-6) at 4:25 p.m. ET on Sunday (11/05/23) in Week 9 of the 2023 NFL season. The Raiders are small favorites in this matchup at -1.5 against the spread, while the over/under is set at 37.5 points.
This article provides Giants vs. Raiders analysis, predictions and betting recommendations and explains why the best bet in this matchup is the under.
Giants vs. Raiders Prediction & Best Bet
The Giants have been party to some of the ugliest games of the season so far, like their 14-7 win over the Washington Commanders two weeks ago and their 13-10 overtime loss to the New York Jets last week. This week could be another ugly one, as the Giants and Raiders have two of the three worst scoring offenses in the league this season. The Raiders are 30th with 15.8 points per game while the Giants are dead last at 11.9.
It’s no surprise that both of these teams’ games have gone under the total more often than not. The under is 7-1 in Giants games and 6-2 in Raiders games. Many of those games have gone well under the total. Those six Raiders games have gone under by an average of 7.58 points while the seven Giants games have gone under by an average of 10.23 points.
It’s possible the Raiders could look much better in this game after the major changes this week. They fired coach Josh McDaniels, offensive coordinator Mick Lombardi and general manager Dave Ziegler. They named linebackers coach Antonio Pierce as the interim head coach. Pierce is in just his second season as a coach, but is a well-respected leader who played nine seasons in the league and won a Super Bowl with the Giants.
We have seen plenty of examples of this type of mid-season coaching change galvanizing a team, at least in the immediate aftermath of the firing. But that is unpredictable and an unreliable indicator of what might happen this time.
We’re staying away from the spread in this game. We would lean toward the Giants, who have looked better on defense the last few weeks (albeit against weak opponents) and should be getting Daniel Jones back. But it’s telling that a team getting its starting QB back from injury is still an underdog against a team that just cleaned house and benched Jimmy Garoppolo for rookie Aidan O’Connell. Backing the Giants getting only 1.5 points on the road just does not seem like a very smart bet.It would not be all that surprising if the “backup quarterback”/“substitute teacher/coach” effect helps the Raiders win the game.
Instead of picking a side against the spread, we’re going to focus on the under as the best bet in this game, even at the low line of 37.5. In addition to both offense’s overall struggles, we also expect both teams to lean heavily on their star running backs in this game. That is going to slow the game down and depress the overall scoring.
Giants vs. Raiders Prediction & Best Bet: Raiders win 16-13 | Best Bet: under 37.5 points (-110)
Giants vs. Raiders Betting Odds
The spread in this matchup opened at the key number of 3 but has dropped to Raiders -1.5. That is a meaningful drop that signals oddsmakers would slightly favor the Giants on a neutral field, as the 1.5-point spread is less than what is typically allocated for home-field advantage.
The over/under has dipped slightly from its opening line of 38.5 and now sits at 37.5.
The implied outcome of these odds is the Raiders winning 20-18.
Giants vs. Raiders Key Injuries
The most significant injury affecting this game is the Giants’ quarterbacks, where starter Daniel Jones is expected to return, but that has not been confirmed as of this writing. That is especially significant because backup Tyrod Taylor is expected to miss the game.
Elsewhere on the Giants, tight end Darren Waller has been ruled out. Both starting offensive tackles – LT Andrew Thomas and RT Evan Neal – have missed multiple games but have a chance to return. Several other key starters are questionable, including Saquon Barkley, Kayvon Thibodeaux, Graham Gano and Wan’Dale Robinson. But they are all trending toward playing.
The Raiders are in a much better position health-wise. Maxx Crosby and Daniel Carlson are the only key players on the injury report, and both are trending toward playing.
Giants vs. Raiders Key Matchups
Check out the key matchups and mismatches for Giants vs. Raiders below.
Saquon Barkley vs. Raiders’ defensive front
The Giants leaned heavily on Barkley last week after they were forced to insert third string QB Tommy DeVito following Tyrod Taylor’s injury. Barkley delivered with a season-high 128 yards against a tough Jets defense. With Darren Waller already ruled out for this game, Barkley is overwhelmingly the Giants’ best offensive weapon, and if they can’t get him going then they’re not going to be able to do much offensively.
The Raiders have one of the worst rushing defenses in the league. They are 30th in rushing defense (140.6 per game), 29th in DVOA and 30th in EPA allowed against the run. Jahmyr Gibbs torched them for 152 yards last week, and D’Onta Foreman scored three touchdowns against them the week before. With respect to those two backs, especially Gibbs, Barkley is significantly more talented and could be next in line for a huge RB performance against this defense.
Josh Jacobs vs. Giants’ defensive front
We expect both teams to lean heavily on the run in this game, so it should not be surprising that the two running backs are the focus of the two key matchups.
Jacobs has declined dramatically from his All-Pro season last year when he led the league with 1,653 rushing yards (97.2 per game) on 4.9 yards per carry. He is averaging career lows of 51 yards per game and 3.1 yards per carry through the first half of this season. But he is coming off an encouraging performance last week against the Lions when he averaged over 4 yards per carry for the first time this season against an above average Lions run defense.
The Giants’ run defense is better than the Raiders’, but just barely. They are 24th in rushing defense (127.4 yards per game), 29th in yards per carry allowed (4.8), 27th in the DVOA and 24th in EPA allowed against the run.
The area where Jacobs might have his biggest impact is the passing game. He is averaging career highs in receiving yards (30.3) and yards per catch (8.6) on 3.5 receptions per game. The Giants have been good at defending pass-catching running backs, allowing the third-fewest receptions (3.0) and fourth-fewest yards (23.9) to opposing running backs this season. Breece Hall torched them for a 50-yard TD last week and finished with six catches for 76 yards.
Breece Hall is too dangerous in the open field. Touchdown Jets 🙌
— NFL (@NFL) October 29, 2023
Jacobs isn’t quite the receiving threat that Hall is, but if he can have a similar impact through the air in this game, the Raiders will have a much better chance to get the win.