New York Giants vs. Miami Dolphins kicks off this Sunday at 1:00pm EST in Miami Florida as a home game for the Dolphins. The Giants are currently a +12 underdog and +530 on the moneyline while the total is set at 47.5. With Tua Tagovailoa and Jaylen Waddle in a position to dominate a weak Giants defense while Daniel Jones plays from behind, their overs serve as valuable player props in this New York Giants vs. Miami Dolphins matchup.
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The Dolphins fell back to reality after a thrashing in their last game out against the Bills, getting a reminder that they still have a way to go before being pegged as an actual contender. Their defense will always leave them vulnerable, forcing their offense to play a perfect game in order to beat the elites. Lucky for them, the Giants are no threat to exploit their defense, putting the Dolphins in a position to route the G-Men.
Tua Tagovailoa Over 2.5 Passing Touchdowns
Player prop overs are going to be a common theme in this article, and we start it off with a juiced Tua passing touchdown over. Their offense ranks first in Off DVOA in large part to their pass attack, fielding the most lethal duo at wideout while pinpoint passer Tua hits them in stride.
After getting relatively squeezed out by the Bills pass rush, Tua should now find himself back with ample time in the pocket against a weak Giants front seven. Even with a high blitz rate, the Giants still rank a lowly 31st in Def Pressure and 31st in Defensive Line Sack Rate.
Worse yet for the Giants defense, their heavy dose of the blitz leaves their middle wide open for the Dolphins short game to exploit. This plays right into Miami’s strategy, getting their wideouts into the open field and letting them make the play with their superior speed.
With that said, the Dolphins should find themselves in scoring position every time the offense hits the field. That gives Tua extra attempts in the red zone, increasing his chance of clearing this over as well as a higher chance of connecting on the big play.
Jaylen Waddle o60.5 Receiving Yards
With the Giants defensive scheme leaving them vulnerable to get burned through the middle, this directly correlates to Jaylen Waddle’s ability to find immediate success. Playing as the slot receiver in the high-powered Miami offense, Waddle feasts on open fields as he streaks across the middle.
Jaylen Waddle what a catch 🤯 pic.twitter.com/waUz6cRHQ2
— NFL Retweet (@NFLRT) October 1, 2023
The Giants secondary struggles enough as is, ranking 29th in Def Pass EPA, 30th in Def Pass DVOA, and 19th in Def Pass Success Rate. Factor in them needing to throw double coverage at Tyreek Hill and Waddle should find himself open throughout a majority of the game.
Jaylen Waddle Over 4.5 Receptions
Correlating the previously mentioned player prop with this one, I fully expect Jaylen Waddle to be heavily featured into the pass attack as he benefits from an open middle of the defense and singular coverage. He brings in an elite blend of route running and speed, punishing linebackers who try to go stride for stride.
Factor in an improved ground game from the speedy duo of Raheem Mostert and an emerging De’Von Achane, and the Giants defense will have no choice but to spread themselves thin. As the spread implies, this may be a blowout with the Dolphins offense running wild.
Daniel Jones Over 22.5 Pass Completions
It’s not exactly the most settling thought on the stomach, but Daniel Jones is in a position to bounce back after an underwhelming performance against the Seattle Seahawks. To little fault of his own, but he can only do so much when under constant pressure from one of the worst offensive lines in football.
Lucky for him, the Dolphins front seven is below average in generating pressure and should give Jones a cleaner pocket than he has been accustomed to. Especially with Miami’s secondary struggling in coverage, ranking 31st in Def Pass Success, 25th in Def Pass DVOA, and 21st in Def Pass EPA. Couple the extra time in the pocket and cleaner passing windows and Daniel Jones should be able to get the pass game going against this weak Miami defense.