New York Jets vs Buffalo Bills (12/11/22): Betting Odds, Prediction, Depth Chart

The Jets Mike White experiment was so close to continuing their perfect start against the Vikings in their last game out. Failing at the goal line in the final minutes, allowing the Vikings to squeak out a 27-22 win. They now get an opportunity to bounce back against a team they already beat earlier this season in the Buffalo Bills.

New York Jets vs Buffalo Bills Betting Odds

Oddsmakers don’t like their chances of repeating an upset win over the Bills as they set their spread at +10 on the open. Bettors on the other hand were quick to smash them, taking this as low as +9 as of writing. Even with a new quarterback under center, the Jets offense has played up for Mike White while the defense has remained elite.

As for the total, oddsmakers have them scoring at a higher rate this time around as they set the total at 44 with bettors taking this up to as high as 44.5. Josh Allen played an underwhelming game through the air in their last time around with the Bills uncharacteristically being unable to put up points on the board.

New York Jets vs Buffalo Bills Prediction

The Pick: Bills Teaser Piece

Even with Josh Allen clearly battling an elbow issue, the Bills are far and away better on both sides of the ball in this matchup. Turnovers have been his Achilles heel and that was apparent in their first meeting. Throwing two interceptions all but sealed their fate while the Bills thoroughly outplayed the Jets in an embarrassing loss.

While I do believe the Bills will fare better this time around, I am not a fan of the current number with so many variables on the Jets side of the ball. Instead, I will wait to see if the spread hits -8.5 so I can put the Bills in a Wong Teaser and group them with someone else at -2.5.

It was encouraging to see them fare well against the Patriots defense, a unit that ranks top-5 in Overall Def DVOA. One issue that still makes me timid with their outlook in this matchup is their inability to establish a run game.

Without a complete offense, it’s hard for me to think the Bills can run away with this one. Especially when the Jet’s defense has proved to be for real at the midpoint of the NFL season with a top-10 Overall Def DVOA ranking. 

The bright spot for the Bills is that they still field an elite defense after battling injury issues throughout the season. With tape on Mike White now, I believe the Jets offense will be stopped to a halt against the Bills top-5 Overall Def DVOA rating.

Betting Trends

• The Jets are 3-7 ATS in their last ten games in Buffalo
• The Bills are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 home games

Key Injuries

New York Jets Injuries: Michael Carter (Q), Ashtyn Davis (O), Cedric Ogbuehi (D)

Buffalo Bills Injuries: Dion Dawkins (O), Quintin Morris (O)

Key Matchups

Can anyone else find success at receiver other than Diggs against the Jets?

Bills pass attack vs Jets pass defense

While the offense struggled as a whole in their last game against the Jets, the Allen to Diggs connection was alive and well. Stefon Diggs finished with 93 yards on five receptions. The issue? He had no help from his other weapons.

That’s a cause for concern when you have a non-existent run game. The production of Dawson Knox and Gabe Davis will need to make an appearance this time around as the Jets excel at limiting pass production.

Verdict

While I like the Bills in their rematch against the Jets, I am not a fan of the high spread in a game that may see points become a scarcity. Take them as a Wong Teaser piece at -2.5 or better in what will be a defensive showdown.

New York Jets Depth Chart

QB: Mike White
RB1: James Robinson
RB2: Ty Johnson
LWR: Corey Davis
RWR: Elijah Moore
SWR: Braxton Berrios
TE1: CJ Uzomah

Buffalo Bills Depth Chart

QB: Josh Allen
RB1: Devin Singletary
RB2: Nyheim Hines
LWR: Stefon Diggs
RWR: Gabe Davis
SWR: Isaiah McKenzie
TE1: Dawson Knox