Get Jets vs. Bills player prop picks & odds for the (11/19/23) matchup
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Jets vs. Bills Player Prop Picks
The Buffalo Bills (5-5) host their AFC East rivals the New York Jets (4-5) this Sunday (11/19/23) at 4:25pm ET. The Jets beat the Bills in week 1 in the game Aaron Rodgers got injured, and now the Bills are favored by a touchdown in the rematch at -7 against the spread. Let’s take a look at the betting odds for player prop bets in this game and pick some of the best Jets vs. Bills player prop bets for this week 11 matchup.
Breece Hall over 23.5 receiving yards (-120 at BetMGM)
Breece Hall has taken over as the focal point of the Jets’ offense, and over the last 4 weeks most of his production has come through the air. He has 18 catches for 187 yards over that timeframe, which represents just 25% of his touches but 58% of his yardage. He has at least 47 receiving yards in 3 of those 4 games and has gone over his receiving yards prop line in 5 of his last 6 games.
When these teams squared off in week 1, Hall went off on the ground, breaking big plays for 26 and 83 yards on his first 2 carries of the game and finishing with 127 rushing yards. He only had 1 catch in that game but he made the most of it with an explosive 20-yard gain.
THERE GOES BREECE HALL! 83 YARDS!
— NFL (@NFL) September 12, 2023
That production came before Hall was fully recovered from his ACL injury and was not yet seeing a normal volume of touches. It was also before the Bills suffered multiple significant injuries on their defense, specifically to DL DaQuan Jones, LB Matt Milano and CB Tre’Davious White. The Bills’ struggles on defense recently have been well-documented, and along with Josh Allen’s turnover problems have been the biggest reason they are 2-4 in their last 6 games.
We expect another big game from Hall this time around, but it was difficult to choose between his rushing yards, receiving yards or yards from scrimmage when picking the best Breece Hall prop bet. Ultimately the recent production through the air made the decision fairly obvious.
The Bills are also one of the worst teams in the league at defending pass-catching running backs. They’re allowing the 5th-most receptions (5.9) and the 4th-most yards (49) per game to opposing RBs. They have allowed an opposing RB to hit the over on their receiving yards prop line in 4 straight games and in 7 of 9 games overall this season.
If you want to get some action on Hall in this game, this is the best way to do it.
Josh Allen over 29.5 rushing yards (-114 at FanDuel)
We were hesitant at first to make this pick because Josh Allen has not been nearly as productive on the ground this season as he has been throughout his career. His 4.8 rushing attempts and 24.6 rushing yards per game are both career lows through 10 games, and his 5.1 yards per carry are his lowest in the last 3 seasons.
However, Allen has been starting to get more production on the ground over the last few weeks. He has at least 7 rushing attempts in 3 of his last 4 games and has 40+ rushing yards in 2 of his last 3 games. He also had a good game on the ground in week 1 against the Jets, rushing 6 times for 36 yards. He has made a habit of burning the Jets with his legs over the last 2 years, averaging 7.5 carries for 58 yards in his last 4 games against them.
The Jets are one of the best defenses in the league, but they are definitively the worst in the league at defending running QBs. They are allowing the most yards per game (30.6) and the second-most rushing attempts per game (5.78) to opposing QBs. They have allowed the opposing QB to hit the over on his rushing yards prop line in every single game this season, which is pretty remarkable.
If you want to tail this pick, be sure to head to FanDuel to get the best odds. Not only is the line at FanDuel 1 yard lower than most other sportsbooks (as of this writing), but it’s also coming with slightly better odds at -114 compared to -120 or lower everywhere else.
Josh Allen anytime TD (+155 at FanDuel)
To go along with that Allen rushing yards pick, we also like the +155 odds on Allen to score an anytime TD. He has scored a rushing TD in 4 straight games and 7 of his last 8. With 7 rushing TDs, he is tied with Jalen Hurts for the most by a QB this season. He is on pace to break his career high for rushing TDs in a season, which was 9 in his 2nd season in 2019.
The Jets have allowed only 5 rushing touchdowns this season – tied for 8th fewest in the league – but 2 of those touchdowns were scored by QBs. Allen did not score a rushing touchdown in week 1, but he did have 3 rushing TDs in his 2 games against the Jets last season.
Once again, the best odds on this Josh Allen anytime TD bet are at FanDuel. If you wanted to combine both of these picks into a Same Game Parlay, your odds at FanDuel as of this writing would be +246.