Both the Jets and Bills could use a win after ugly performances in Week 10. Let’s take a look at Jets vs. Bills odds predictions for Sunday (11/19/23) as Buffalo tries to right the ship, with Bills -7 as our best bet.
New York Jets vs. Buffalo Bills Prediction
It’s tough to have much faith in the Jets with the way their offense has played (how much longer can the defense stay motivated?), but it’s equally as difficult to watch the Bills and be confident betting on them to cover a 7-point spread. What gives?
Right now, Buffalo seems to be the team with a higher sense of urgency. The Bills’ defense continues to play well despite losing key pieces earlier in the year, and it wasn’t until the unit was worn down that the Broncos really started moving the ball this past Monday. With a pretty strong red zone defense, a Jets offense that melts down in the red zone will likely have to settle for field goals again.
Can the Bills avoid turnovers? As closely as the Jets have played them over the last two years, a Bills offense that cuts back on turnovers should easily roll to a win. The urgency should be high after Ken Dorsey’s firing, and with a strong point differential plus indications many of Josh Allen’s turnovers haven’t been his fault, it does feel as though the offense is too talented not to snap out of it soon. With James Cook running well and giving the Bills a strong rushing attack, the offense has the balance to be more efficient than it’s been over the last few weeks.
Both of these teams are in a dark place, but only the Bills have the offense to dig their way out of it. I’ll take the Bills to cover -7 at home.
New York Jets vs. Buffalo Bills Prediction: Bills -7
New York Jets vs. Buffalo Bills Best Betting Odds
The Bills are holding steady as 7-point home favorites on Sunday, entering at -305 on the moneyline. The over/under is 40 points.
This line didn’t move much at all despite the Bills’ upset loss in Week 10, and that’s a direct result of the Jets’ latest offensive nightmare. Still, New York has played Buffalo very closely since last season. Does the Jets’ defense have enough to keep this game within one possession?
New York Jets vs. Buffalo Bills Key Injuries
The Bills are dealing with long-term absences of Tre’Davious White, Matt Milano, and DaQuan Jones. TE Dawson Knox (wrist) remains out indefinitely, while S Micah Hyde is practicing in a limited capacity after missing Week 10 with a stinger.
For the Jets, OT Mekhi Becton and WR Garrett Wilson were limited in practice midweek, but there are no indications either is at serious risk of missing Sunday’s game.
New York Jets vs. Buffalo Bills Key Matchups
Here are some of the key matchups that could decide Jets vs. Bills.
Jets vs. Bills Red Zone Defense
It’s almost become comical how much the Jets’ offense falls apart in the red zone. The struggles were blamed on OC Mike LaFleur last season, but it’s become clear that Zach Wilson is the common denominator. Is there any chance New York can turn what have been field goal scenarios into a touchdown or two on Sunday?
The Bills have a stronger red zone defense than the Jets’ last two opponents, with a 45.5 conversion percentage for opponents that puts Buffalo just inside the top-10. The unit held strong against the Broncos until it got worn down late in the game. That puts pressure on the Bills’ offense to hold onto the ball and not keep putting the defense on the field.
Considering the Jets have a dismal 22.7 percent success rate, New York almost can’t be any worse in the red zone than it has been of late, but settling for field goals all night would make a win in Buffalo virtually impossible.
Bills Offense vs. Turnovers
The Bills’ offense has to start beating itself, though the Jets’ defense will make that difficult. Josh Allen was intercepted three times in Buffalo’s season opener against this Jets team, and the turnovers have continued to pile up. They’re not all his fault – dropped passes are a factor, as are fumbles – but a turnover is a turnover. Those issues might not be something so easily fixed by Ken Dorsey’s exit, and it will be fascinating to see whether the Jets’ swarming defense can get in Allen’s head on Sunday.
If the Bills play a clean game – even if they don’t do exactly what they want offensively – they’re extremely likely to win. Those games have just been hard to come by, though, and the Jets have made it their mission to rarely let opposing offenses play a clean game. Whether new OC Joe Brady can change that is a serious uncertainty.