Get New York Jets vs. Cleveland Browns player prop picks & odds for the (12/28/23) matchup
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New York Jets vs. Cleveland Browns Player Prop Picks
It feels fitting that our final Thursday Night Football game of the year has an over/under of 34.5 points given the year of low-scoring primetime games we’ve had. While this game might not seem enticing on the surface, it is full of strong betting opportunities in the player props market. Use the player prop search tool above to get the best odds for whichever prop you select. Let’s get to work.
Joe Flacco Under 235.5 Passing Yards (-110 Bet365)
The Joe Flacco career renaissance has been fascinating, and he leads the NFL with 1,321 passing yards since becoming the Browns’ starting quarterback. However, it’s finally time to fade him in the toughest matchup he’s faced this season by far – the Jets rank third in pass defense DVOA. So far, he’s faced the Rams (21st), Jaguars (15th), Bears (18th), and Texans (27th), four average to below average pass defenses by DVOA.
The Jets are a Cover 2 heavy defense that doesn’t allow big plays and thrives on generating pressure without blitzing. They get pressure at the fourth-highest rate but rank just 31st in blitz rate. The Browns are down to backup offensive tackles on either side with Jack Conklin, Jedrick Wills and Dawand Jones out for the year, and Cleveland allowed 23 pressures against the Texans last week.
Flacco has struggled under pressure with just a 48.1% completion rate and 5.3 yards per attempt. Out of 42 qualified quarterbacks, those numbers rank 25th and 27th respectively. Flacco’s 10-yard average depth of target (aDOT) ranks third among qualified quarterbacks over the last four weeks, and he won’t be able to push the ball downfield nearly as consistently here.
Overall, the Jets have allowed just 168.6 passing yards per game, the second-fewest in the NFL. They’ve held 10 of 15 opposing quarterbacks under this passing yardage number, and the players to go over have all been in the MVP conversation this season – Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Dak Prescott, and Tua Tagovailoa (twice). None of those quarterbacks have over 280 yards.
Flacco was on the Jets last season, and they’ve taken a lot of criticism leading up to this game for letting him walk due to their current quarterback situation. Robert Salas was cordial when asked about it, saying he was excited for Flacco, but I assume he’ll be eager to prove a point here. The Jets already have arguably the best pass defense in the NFL, but they should be even more equipped to stop Flacco as they will know how to attack his weaknesses.
Finally, we don’t need to worry about this game becoming a shootout or game script leading to a pass-heavy offensive approach. The Jets are 7-point underdogs in a game with a 34.5-point over/under, and it’s difficult to see how their last-placed offense by DVOA scores on the Browns’ top-ranked defense. In what should be a low-scoring slugfest between elite defenses, I love this spot to fade Flacco this week.
Amari Cooper Under 60.5 Receiving Yards (-115 PointsBet)
In a similar vein to the Flacco under, I’d also look to take the under on Amari Cooper’s receiving yards in this game. I assume there will be a ton of bets on Cooper to go over this number on Thursday after his franchise record-breaking 265 yards last week, but this is an excellent sell-high opportunity.
The Jets have been dominant against wide receivers all season, allowing just 117.9 receiving yards per game to the position, the fewest in the NFL. Cooper will likely see a fair amount of Sauce Gardner in this game, and Gardner ranks second in the NFL in PFF coverage grades. Reduce your risk if you plan on playing both Flacco and Cooper props since they’re highly correlated, but I love both plays this week.
Breece Hall Under 81.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-115 Caesars)
Why not round things out with one more under? Breece Hall showed how special his talent is last week with 191 yards from scrimmage against the Commanders, and he came through in a huge way for any fantasy managers who had him in their lineup. However, that came against a Commanders defense that ranks 31st in DVOA this season.
The Browns are first in DVOA this year. They’re going to give Hall a much tougher game, and this is a line he’s been under in six of his last eight games. The Browns have allowed the 11th-fewest rushing yards and ninth-fewest receiving yards to running backs this season, and I expect Hall to be bottled up behind an offensive line that finds itself at an enormous disadvantage.