On Sunday (10/8/23), the New York Jets face the Denver Broncos in an AFC showdown. In this article, find player prop picks for this game featuring Breece Hall, Russell Wilson,
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New York Jets vs. Denver Broncos Player Prop Picks
When the Jets and Broncos face off on Sunday, it will be a battle of 1-3 teams looking to right the ship in their floundering seasons. The Broncos are currently listed as home favorites of 2.5 points here. Let’s dive into some player prop picks to see if we can find some value in this matchup.
Breece Hall Over 60.5 Rushing Yards (-115 BetMGM) and Longest Rush Over 16.5 Yards (-110 BetMGM)
Jets head coach Robert Saleh said on Wednesday that star running back Breece Hall is no longer on a snap count. After an ACL tear ended last season prematurely, the second-year running back is ready to take over as one of the best talents in the league at his position. Hall’s 6.5 yards per carry rank second among all running backs with 20+ carries.
Hall was the Jets’ second round pick last season, and he had 463 yards and four touchdowns through seven games before that season-ending injury. That came against the Broncos last year, and Hall had ripped off a 62-yard run in that game – that would have cashed both of these props in one go.
Hall ranks fourth in the NFL in explosive run rate and is second in yards after contact per attempt. He’s a big play waiting to happen, and those big plays will happen against a Denver defense that’s 31st in both run defense DVOA and EPA. Wheels up for Breece Hall.
Russell Wilson Over 19.5 Pass Completions (-125 DraftKings)
It may not feel like it with how much Denver’s defense is struggling, but Russell Wilson is enjoying an impressive bounceback season. He ranks sixth in the NFL in yards per attempt and tenth in adjusted completion rate. Sean Payton seems to be doing wonders in Wilson’s ability to right the ship.
This matchup will provide an interesting test for Wilson. The Jets are seen as an elite pass defense, but the reality doesn’t match that perception as they rank just 28th in EPA against the pass. They do an excellent job of taking away the deep ball, but Wilson will have opportunities to dink and dunk against this defense.
With starting running back Javonte Williams dealing with a hip injury, we could see a slightly more pass heavy approach from the Broncos this week. Wilson has been over this number in three of his four games this season, and I believe we’re getting this at a cheap price point given how he’s been performing.
Jerry Jeudy Over 3.5 Receptions (-118 FanDuel)
Jerry Jeudy returned to the Broncos lineup in Week 2 after missing Week 1 due to a hamstring injury suffered just before the start of the season. He’s working his way back into the flow of the offense, but he profiles as a perfect fit for the scheme Sean Payton is running with Russell Wilson.
The Jets are comfortable giving away the short and intermediate area of the field as they drop back into coverage and protect against the deep ball. Jeudy is a precise route runner and he thrives in that middle area of the field.
There have been trade rumors involving Jeudy being sent to the Carolina Panthers this week, and while it shouldn’t factor into your handicap much, there’s a chance the Broncos look to showcase Jeudy this week for a potential trade. That only offers more upside to the over on his receptions prop.