New York Jets vs. Kansas City Chiefs (11/1/20): Betting Odds, Depth Charts, Live Stream (Watch Online)
The Jets and Chiefs are two teams headed in opposite directions at the moment as the Jets are well on their way to the #1 overall pick in next year’s draft while the Chiefs are looking to defend their Super Bowl Championship from last season. This game has the highest betting spread of the season and the 9th-biggest spread in NFL history. The Chiefs are 15-1 straight up and 14-2 against the spread in their last 16 games, so they’ve given us little reason to doubt their ability to cover this massive spread. The real question will be just how badly they’re going to steamroll this horrendous Jets squad this week. For odds movement and full matchup history, visit the New York Jets at Kansas City Chiefs Matchup Page.
Date: Sunday, November 1st, 2020
Time: 1:00 PM ET
Location: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO
TV Coverage: CBS
Jets vs. Chiefs Live Stream
Where can you watch Jets vs. Chiefs online? You can stream this game, and many other NFL games live online with Hulu. Hulu has a 7 Day free trial and is cheaper than cable options at $5.99/month. Watch Jets vs. Chiefs Free Online Now.
New York Jets: C J. Andrews (shoulder) Q, T C. McDermott (illness) Q, RB F. Gore (hand) Q, OLB J. Jenkins (ribs) Q, K S. Ficken (groin) D, WR J. Crowder (groin) D, S B. McDougald (shoulder) O, LB B. Cashman (hamstring) O, WR B. Perriman (concussion) O, DE K. Phillips (ankle) IR, CB A. Maulet (groin) IR, ILB P. Onwuasor (knee) IR, LB F. Luvu (groin) IR, WR C. Hogan (ankle) IR, CB K. Brown (quadriceps) PUP
Kanas City Chiefs: T M. Schwartz (back) O, WR S. Watkins (hamstring) O, FB A. Sherman (illness) COVID-19, DE A. Okafor (hamstring) IR, CB L. Sneed (collarbone) IR, G K. Osemele (knee) IR, DE M. Danna (hamstring) IR, CB A. Brown (ACL) IR, T M. Rankin (knee) PUP
New York Jets Analysis
I need to fill this section with words. What words can be used to describe the 0-7, hapless, rudderless Jets? I have a few choice words for Adam Gase, the clear worst coach in the NFL and general killer of fun and fantasy potential. Sam Darnold’s career never had a chance in this environment, and it’s hard to blame him for his far from stellar stats this season. He has the third-worst QBR in the NFL at 41.1 and ranks as the second-worst and worst in Football Outsiders’ QB DYAR and DVOA, respectively. New York has generated just 159.9 passing yards per game, the fewest in the NFL. It seems like the Jets are destined for Trevor Lawrence at this point, and I hope another franchise gives Darnold a chance next year. I still believe he has the talent, and it’s not entirely his fault that he hasn’t produced to this point.
The Jets’ run game hasn’t been much better than its passing game as both Frank Gore and La’Mical Perine stat out as below-average in Football Outsiders’ RB DVOA. Gore is questionable for this game with a hand injury, so we could see more of Perine this week after his 11 carries for 40 yards and a touchdown last week. While Football Outsiders has the Jets ranked as the worst pass-protection offensive line in the NFL, their run-blocking has graded out as closer to average, surprisingly. However, Le’Veon Bell had minimal production before being cut, and neither Gore nor Perine has done much all year. The lone bright spot on this team’s offensive line has been Mekhi Becton, who looks like the best tackle from this rookie class early in his career.
The Jets’ leading receiver this season has been Jamison Crowder by far – he has 29 catches for 383 yards and 2 touchdowns in 4 games played. That’s a 16-game pace of 116 catches for 1,532 yards and 8 touchdowns. However, Crowder has struggled to stay on the field and is again doubtful for this week with a groin injury. Breshad Perriman would be next in line to be the team’s top wideout, but he’s out this week after suffering a concussion against the Bills. That leaves rookie Denzel Mims with a likely massive target share this week after he had 4 catches for 42 yards in his debut last week. The Jets’ offense isn’t the spot for him to flourish, but he has clear potential, and I loved his tape coming out of Baylor.
Defensively, the Jets have clearly missed their leader and former All-Pro safety Jamal Adams after his offseason trade to the Seahawks. The Jets have allowed 385 yards per game, the 10th-most, and 29 points per game, the 7th-most. Their run defense has drifted closer to the middle of the pack, ranked as the 14th-best by Football Outsiders’ DVOA, mostly due to some great defensive line play from second-year standout Quinnen Williams and third-year Folorunso Fatukasi. Marcus Maye has also continued his phenomenal free safety play even without Jamal Adams. Outside of those three players, though, the Jets’ defense has been lacking across the board and is going to be exposed by one of the best offenses in the NFL in the Chiefs this week.
New York Jets Depth Chart
Kansas City Chiefs Analysis
Patrick Mahomes has turned in another incredible season as he has thrown for 1,835 yards and 16 touchdowns to just one interception. Advanced analytics love his production as well – his QBR of 84.9 is the second-best in the NFL, and he ranks first in both Football Outsiders’ quarterback DYAR and DVOA. Last week, he wasn’t asked to do a ton as he only attempted 23 passes in a game where the Chiefs won in all three phases of the game and contributed a touchdown via both defense and special teams.
The Chiefs’ ability to run the ball this season has taken the pressure off Mahomes to do everything on every drive. Clyde Edwards-Helaire has been explosive as a rookie, and he ranks 20th in DYAR and 22nd in DVOA per Football Outsiders. He’s rushed for 551 yards this season, the second-most in the NFL. Le’Veon Bell was added to this offense to help spell CEH, and it paid off – in his first appearance with the team, he looked better than he had in a long time. He rushed 6 times for 39 yards, and he’s going to be clamoring for work against his former team this week. The Chiefs’ productive offense is partially due to an offensive line that ranks 11th in run-blocking and 8th in pass-blocking this season, although they will be without stalwart right tackle Mitchell Schwartz this week.
In a bizarre turn of events, Tyreek Hill has become far more of a consistent possession receiver than the volatile downfield threat he’s been in recent seasons. He hasn’t surpassed 100 yards yet this season, but he does have five receiving touchdowns in seven games. Football Outsiders has him as the 14th-best receiver in the NFL in DVOA. Sammy Watkins has had a solid season, but he will miss this week’s game with a hamstring injury. Mecole Hardman and DeMarcus Robinson will likely take on more targets in his absence. Of course, Travis Kelce will continue to dominate the passing game for Kansas City as the #1 tight end in the NFL in Football Outsiders’ DVOA. The Chiefs have tons of pass-catchers who will burn a limited Jets’ secondary.
Kansas City has also had a solid season defensively, mostly against the pass. Football Outsiders has them ranked as the 5th-best pass defense and the 31st-best run defense. However, the Chiefs are likely going to be up by multiple scores in this game, so their weak run defense won’t be exposed by the Jets. The Chiefs’ secondary has been excellent this season with Bashaud Breeland and Charvarius Ward providing strong cornerback play, Daniel Sorenson and Juan Thornhill excelling at safety, and Tyrann Mathieu making plays all over the field. Chris Jones has turned in another phenomenal season as well. The Chiefs have generated 16 sacks this season, the 14th-most in the NFL.
Kansas City Chiefs Depth Chart
Spread: Chiefs -19.5, Jets +19.5
Moneyline: Chiefs -2500, Jets +1200
Over/Under: 48.5 points
The Chiefs’ -2500 line gives them a 96.2% chance to win this game, and the Jets’ +1200 line gives them a 7.7% chance to win. For reference, the Chiefs, Ravens, Buccaneers, Steelers, Seahawks, and Packers all have a better chance to win the Super Bowl than the Jets do to win this game. There frankly isn’t a single aspect, on or off the field, that gives New York an advantage in this game. The Jets’ offense is atrocious, scoring just 12.1 points per game. If the Jets doubled their scoring output per game, they would still be a below-average offense. The Chiefs can win this game in any number of ways, and I don’t expect their passing volume to be significant as they should run away with this one. I can’t imagine putting money on the Jets in this game, but there is precedent for such a large favorite to fail to cover the spread. When the Broncos were favored by 28 over the Jaguars in Week 6 of the 2013 season, they won by just 16. When the Patriots were favored by 25 over the Eagles in Week 12 of the 2007 season, they won by just a field goal. However, my gut says to pick the Chiefs to cover this massive spread after their 27-point win over the Broncos. I’ll take the under in this game since I have no idea how the Jets score more than 10 points.
My prediction: Chiefs win 31-10, Chiefs cover, under 48.5 points
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Daily Fantasy Picks
I’m staying away from Chiefs players in DFS this week as I think this game will be well in hand by halftime, but Le’Veon Bell could see some extended run against his former team. He spoke about his excitement to face the Jets, and it would make sense for Andy Reid to limit Clyde Edwards-Helaire’s workload to keep him fresh for games that matter. Lev has a wide range of outcomes, but I’d take a flier on him in DFS.
Kansas City Chiefs DST
The clear best play from the Kansas City side of the ball in this matchup is their DST. Last week, they scored a touchdown via both defense and special teams, and they should take advantage of Sam Darnold after he threw two picks last week. They’ll be one of the highest-priced DSTs on the week, but they’re worth spending on with their combined floor and ceiling in this matchup.
Targeting Jets players in DFS is generally gross, but I think Perine could have some upside against what has been a weak run defense this season. The game script will turn quickly against New York running the ball, but Perine can garner a ton of targets as a pass-catcher. With Frank Gore out this week, he should have enough usage to give him a solid floor, and he could fall into the end zone again.
This is another injury-inspired pick. Denzel Mims shouldn’t cost you much as he had just 4 catches for 42 yards in his debut, but he is suddenly the team’s top wideout with both Jamison Crowder and Breshad Perriman out this week. The downside potential is real given the ineptitude of this offense, but Mims is a rising talent, and the Jets will need to throw the ball all game. You could do worse, given the target share he should receive.