New York Jets vs. Las Vegas Raiders NFL Player Props & Picks (11/12/23)
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Raiders vs. Jets Player Prop Picks
The Las Vegas Raiders (4-5) play host to the New York Jets (4-4) on Sunday Night Football (11/12/23) in Week 10 of the 2023 NFL season. The Jets are road favorites at -1 against the spread while the over/under is set at a meager 36.5 points. Let’s take a look at the betting odds for player prop bets in this game and pick the best Jets vs. Raiders player prop bets.
Breece Hall over 86.5 rushing + receiving yards (-115 at BetMGM)
The Jets have officially lifted any restrictions on Breece Hall’s usage, and he has delivered with 110 scrimmage yards per game over the last 4 games. He has been equally effective both on the ground and through the air, but usually not both in the same game. Over those last four games, he had two good games on the ground with minimal production as a receiver, and in the other two games the opposite was true. So we’ll just eliminate the risk of picking the wrong category to bet on and instead bet on his total scrimmage yards.
The Raiders are allowing the second-most scrimmage yards per game to opposing running backs this season at 149.7 yards per game. Most of that has come on the ground as they are allowing 117.8 rushing yards per game (3rd most). Overall they are bottom 5 in run defense DVOA, EPA and success rate.
Hall’s rushing yards prop line this week is 63.5, a number he has cleared only twice this season. We like the chances that changes this week as the Raiders have allowed eight of the nine lead running backs they’ve faced to hit the over on their rushing yards prop. Still, we’d prefer to minimize the risk of a heavier receiving workload this week by sticking with the total scrimmage yards prop. This also protects against the possibility of the Jets falling behind and going pass-heavy for a large portion of the game.
Whatever the game script may be, we expect a big game from Hall against one of the worst defenses in the league at containing explosive running backs.
Zach Wilson under 0.5 interceptions (+130 at BetMGM)
Let’s take a swing here at a prop we like with attractive +130 odds.
While he has a reputation as a mistake-prone bust of top 2 draft pick, Wilson has been good enough to keep the Jets afloat this season. The Jets have also simplified the offense for him and leaned on Breece Hall in the running game, which helps take some pressure off Wilson. It has also helped Wilson avoid throwing interceptions.
Wilson has thrown only one interception in his last six games. He has still struggled with turnovers, but lately it has mostly been fumbles – eight in the last five games. Based on Pro Football Focus data, Wilson has made only eight turnover-worthy plays (TWP) this season. His 2.4% rate of committing TWPs is tied for ninth best in the league (min. 100 snaps).
The Raiders’ secondary does have some ball hawks. They are 9th in the league with eight interceptions so far this season and three different players (Trevon Moehrig, Amik Robertson and Robert Spillane) have multiple interceptions.
There is always some risk with a pick like this as interceptions can happen at no fault of the quarterback, like if he’s hit while he throws or a ball gets tipped up in the air. Still, Wilson has been impressive recently with his ability to make smart decisions with the ball, and at +130 odds we like the value on betting that continues this week on Sunday Night Football.
Greg Zuerlein over 1.5 field goals made (+115 at BetMGM)
Who doesn’t love a good kicking prop? This one is too good to pass up.
Zuerlein has at least two field goal attempts in six of his seven games this season and at least two made field goals in five out of seven games, including the last four in a row. The Jets may be one of the worst offenses in the league, but they have still been able to give Zuerlein plenty of field goal attempts.
A big reason for that is their red-zone offense, which ranks dead last in touchdown rate at 23.8% (5 for 21). Perhaps they will have more success this week against a Raiders defense that is 28th in the red zone allowing touchdowns on 65.5% of opportunities (19 for 29). But we wouldn’t count on that.
In a game with such a low over/under at 36.5 points, we expect Jets coach Robert Saleh to take his points where he can get them, and that means he will not hesitate to unleash Greg the Leg when he has a chance. Given his track record and the plus odds, that makes this a very attractive bet.
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