New York Jets vs. Miami Dolphins Matchup Preview (11/29/20): Betting Odds, Depth Charts, Live Stream (Watch Online)
The Miami Dolphins (6-4) travel to East Rutherford, New Jersey, to play a disastrous New York Jets (0-10) team. In this divisional rivalry matchup, Dolphins look to inch their way closer to the AFC East-leading 7-3 Bills. For the first time in 12 years, a playoff race is happening in this division, and the Patriots are not in it.
For odds movement and full matchup history, visit the Miami Dolphins at New York Jets Matchup Page.
Date: November 29th, 2020
Time: 1:00 PM ET
Location: MetLife Stadium – East Rutherford, New Jersey
TV Coverage: CBS
Jets vs. Dolphins Live Stream
Where can you watch New York Jets vs. Miami Dolphins online? You can stream this game, and many other NFL games live online with Hulu. Hulu has a 7 Day free trial and is cheaper than cable options at $5.99/month. Watch Jets vs. Dolphins Free Online Now.
*Indicates Expected Week 12 Return
New York Jets:
IR list: Kyle Philips (ankle), Trevon Wesco (ankle), Brian Poole (shoulder), Bradley McDougald* (shoulder), Chris Hogan* (ankle), Blessaun Austin (neck), Sam Ficken (groin), La’Mical Perine (ankle). Questionable: Blake Cashman (hamstring), Chuma Edoga (ankle), Breshard Perriman (shoulder), Patrick Onwuasor (hamstring), George Fant (ankle).
IR list: Vince Biegal (achilles), Davon Godchaux (biceps), Myles Gaskin (knee), Preston Williams (foot). Out: Salvon Ahmed (shoulder). Questionable: Solomon Kindley (foot), Tua Tagovailoa (thumb), Kyle Van Noy (hip).
New York Jets Analysis
The New York Jets are well on their way to not just their worst season ever, but one of the worst seasons by any franchise in recent history. In the team’s first-ever 0-10 start, they rank 31st in defense and dead last in offense. The season has been nothing short of a disaster for New York. I understand there most of us are looking forward to a better year in 2021, but no NFL team is more than the Jets.
The coaching position of New York was the primary concern of their 2019 offseason. After plenty of deliberation, it was decided ex-Miami head coach Adam Gase was right for the job. In his first year, he led New York to a mediocre 7-9 record. But there was hope nonetheless. In their final 8 games, the Jets went 6-2. Jets’ fans did not get the season they were hoping for, but they had strong and reasonable optimism for 2020. But it has not worked out for them. Adam Gase has coached this team to the worst start in its entire 60-year history. They have become just the 6th NFL team to begin the year 0-10. In the two most recent times it has happened (2008 Lions, 2017 Browns), the head coach was fired before the end of their next season. It is predictable the same will happen to Gase if he can’t turn results quickly around in New York.
The defense has been astonished terrible. After a surprisingly strong defensive season in New York last year, they have fallen to near the bottom of the league in 2020. The drop was from the 7th best in the league in yards allowed per game (323.1) to the 28th best at 400 yards allowed per game. Comparing depth charts between the two years, there should be no surprise as to why this collapse happened. The Jets lost immense talent with the departure of Jamal Adams, Leonard Williams, and Trumaine Johnson, to just name a few. These holes have left the Jets rank near the bottom in nearly every statistical category. They do okay against the run, holding teams to 1111.7 yards per game (11th), but in the much more important passing defense category, they’re much worse. They allow 288.3 passing yards per game (30th). With the expected return of Tua Tagovailoa at quarterback for Miami, he should be able to take advantage of a poor defense.
But it is the Jets offense, not defense, that hallmarks this team as one of the worst in recent history. Their 14.9 points per game doesn’t just rank dead last in the NFL but rank among the worst of any offense in the last decade. Last year New York did not have a stellar offense either at 31st in the league, but they notably put up 17.2 points per game, over two points per game more than this year. Their yards per game also falls to the bottom of the league, only moving the ball 268.6 yards per game. An NFL’s 31st best third-down conversion percentage (32.28%) has certainly played a role in their inability to gain yardage. In short, this team has a historically bad offense.
Jets fans will want to blame their offensive woes on the injuries to Sam Darnold. Their franchise quarterback has missed 4 games this year due to a shoulder injury. But in the 6 games he has played this year, and the Jets offense actually averaged just 14 points per game, slightly less than their 14.9 whole year average. Darnold’s 174 passing yards per game ranks below almost every starting quarterback, and his 0.5 touchdowns per game are the 4th worst in the league. There is optimism about an improvement to the offense this weekend, with Darnold likely returning, but I don’t expect it to make a significant difference.
The biggest point of positivity for this offense has to be Jamison Crowder. The wide receiver has put up 71 receiving yards per game and 3 touchdowns on the season despite only having played 6 games this year due to injuries. In the lineup against Miami this weekend, it is Crowder who has the best chance of bringing the league’s worst passing offense (170 passing yards per game) any kind of success on Sunday.
The Jets’ rushing attack is slightly better. Their 98.6 ground yards per game ranks 25th in the league. The departure of Le’Veon Bell and injury to La’Mical Perine has left veteran Frank Gore to helm the backfield. He may not be as explosive as he once was, but the NFL’s 3rd all-time leading rusher has enough experience to take advantage of holes in the Dolphins defense as they appear. Since Miami ranks 5th worst in stopping the run (134.2 yards per game), maybe the Jets will lean on a rushing attack that has potential in this game.
This Jets team is more than just a few missing parts away from being a playoff team, but owning your franchise quarterback is a fair start. They have a front seven crew defense that does decently in stopping runs, a talented receiver, and likely the first overall draft pick. All hope is not lost for this team’s success in several years. In the short-term, however, I see little opportunity for things to turn around. They are playing a division rival at home, so anything can happen, but I don’t like their odds of beating a red-hot rookie quarterback and this talented Dolphins roster. Jets fans will likely have to wait even longer to see their team’s first win.
New York Jets Depth Chart
Miami Dolphins Analysis
The Miami Dolphins may reach the playoffs for just the 3rd third time in 19 years. At 6-4, the Dolphins sit in an unfamiliar position to win the AFC East. With the Patriots (4-6) realistically out of contention, there will be a newly crowned winner of this division for the first time since 2008 when the Dolphins won it with an 11-5 record. They should be able to earn an easy divisional win this weekend if they don’t allow Sam Darnold to have a miraculous comeback game in his return.
There should be plenty of credit awarded to head coach Brian Flores for the Dolphin’s success. After beginning his tenure in Miami with a disappointing 5-11 record in 2018, he has now coached his way to a 6-4 winning team. Beyond leading a Miami team to a rare positive record, he has measurably helped Miami. Between the two years prior to Flores joining the team, the Dolphins averaged well over 7 penalties per game. In Flores’ tenure so far, they average about 5, making them one of the least penalized teams in the NFL. Their 4.6 penalties per game this year make them 3rd in the league behind Belichick’s Patriots and Sean McVay’s Rams. Both of whom are Head Coach of the Year winners. He is likely going to earn a long contract with this team, and for a good reason.
There has been somewhat of a carousel at quarterback for the Dolphins this year. Despite drafting the rookie from Hawaii, Tua Tagovailoa, Miami decided to roll with veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick to start the season. 12 total touchdowns, 1445 passing yards, and an impressive 4-2 record later, Flores benched their veteran leader for Tua Tagovailoa. The rookie went 3-0 in his starts, including against two teams with winning records (Rams and Cardinals). In his three starts, Tua threw for 602 yards, 6 passing touchdowns, and no interceptions. He did, however, injure his thumb, making him miss part of that third game by replacement with Ryan Fitzpatrick. But head coach Flores claims Tua will be able to start on Sunday against the Jets. Barring any last-minute complications, the rookie will be able to stat pad against the worst passing defense in the league.
Undrafted sensation, Salvon Ahmed, was ruled out for this week’s game. The running back is coming off a couple of newsworthy performances, including an 85-yard touchdown game against the Chargers in week 10. He was moved up the depth chart after starter Myles Gaskin was placed on IR for a knee injury. To replace Ahmed in the RB1 role, ex-49er Matt Breida will be stepping up. The back averages close to 5 rushing yards per attempt in his career. Against a surprisingly stout Jets rushing defense, however, it is unlikely the Dolphins will want to use their backup running back too much in this game. Expect a very pass-heavy offensive plan for this game.
DeVante Parker leads this team in targets, receptions, yards, and touchdowns. With injuries at running back and changes at quarterback, Park has been the one consistent weapon on Brian Flores’ offense. None of his 44 receptions for 523 yards and 4 touchdowns stats rank very highly in the league, but it is respectable for a team with rotating players on offense. After going for 6 receptions for 61 yards and a touchdown last week at Denver, I expect him to have back-to-back strong games.
The Dolphins’ offense ranks all over in statistical categories. While they move the ball for just 308.6 yards per game (29th), they score an impressive 26.4 points per game (13th). The numbers translate into a yard per point average of 11.7, tied for first in the league. They simply don’t need to travel very far to earn points. Their average starting field position (or LOS/Dr) ranks 3rd highest in the league. They usually start around their own 32.31-yard line. It’s a recipe for fewer yards, more points, and more wins. Against an atrocious Jets offense, their LOS/Dr will likely increase.
The Miami defense is similarly impressive. Despite conceding the 12th most yards per game (380.6), they only allow 20.2 points per game, the 4th fewest in the league. It is a “bend but doesn’t break kind” of defense. One of the reasons for allowing so many yards but conceding so few points is their takeaways. Miami ranks 4th in the league with 1.7 per game. Cornerback Xavien Howard leads the league in interceptions with 6 on the year. Sam Darnold is back this week alongside his 1 interception per game average, so Howard may earn another one at MetLife.
Another reason they allow such few points is their special teams. Miami ranks first overall in the worst opponents’ field goal percentage, allowing just 63.64% of opposing team’s kickers to convert per field goal try. If that number holds, it will be the smallest percentage of field goal conversions per attempt against any team since 2007. Miami has managed to accomplish this without a single blocked field goal all year long. Maybe it’s their scary mascot or frightening turquoise and orange colors that really just rattle kickers, but it’s worth noting for this game. The Jets kicker, Sergio Castillo, has one of the worst made field goal percentages this year at just 85.7%. I’ve never said this, but a field goal attempt against Miami on Sunday will be very interesting to watch.
The Dolphins, above all, are a fun team to watch. They have an inspiring coach, passionate players, and loyal fans that haven’t seen their team with such a strong chance to win their division in over a decade. In short, they’re a team you can’t help but root for. They may not be the underdogs against this 0-10 Jets team, but they certainly feel like season-long ones for 2020. For a team that most oddsmakers had winning about 6 games, they have proved us wrong all year long. For the sake of football, pay attention to this team going forward.
Miami Dolphins Depth Chart
Betting Corner: Miami Dolphins -7
Spread: +/- 7
Moneyline: -310 Dolphins, +255 Jets
Spread: -7 Dolphins
Moneyline: -310 Dolphins
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It should be no surprise I’m taking the Dolphins in both the Moneyline and spread. The Jets are a disaster, and there’s no reason that should change against a good Miami team. I’m expecting the Jets to switch to a slightly more run-heavy offense while the Dolphins go much more pass-heavy. Each team does this trying to exploit the weaknesses in their matchup’s defense. More interestingly, I think this game will be the under. If the Chiefs couldn’t combine for more than 44 points against the Jets week 8, I can’t see the Dolphins being able to either.
Daily Fantasy Love/Hate
Love: DeVante Parker
My prediction is that DeVante Parker has his season’s best game against the Jets on Sunday. He’s a talented receiver who has flirted with good games all season, he just hasn’t been able to breakout like he wants to. I think it will happen this Sunday.
Hate: Any Player on the Jets, including the Defense
I understand this includes Jamison Crowder, who has had a couple of good games already this season. But the more this Jets offense progresses in the season, the more dysfunction it seems to become. I think fantasy quarterbacks and receivers are way too deep this week and year for you to ever need to go in for a Jets player. It’s not worth the money in daily fantasy or the risk in season-long fantasy.