The Jets haven’t beaten the Patriots since 2015, but they have a chance to put an end to that streak – and potentially Bill Belichick’s tenure in New England – on Sunday. Let’s take a look at Jets vs. Patriots odds and predictions, with Patriots moneyline (-125) our best bet.
Jets vs. Patriots Prediction
It’s been a long time since the Jets last beat the Patriots, and New York didn’t show anything in its loss to the Browns that indicates a road win is likely in Week 18. New York’s defense has been much worse on the road than at home, allowing a 63.5 passer rating at MetLife Stadium and a 103.2 passer rating everywhere else.
The defense has also shown signs of regression as the season has progressed, making them harder to trust now than when these teams met earlier in the season.
Both teams will run the ball often in what might be a snowy game, and these running games stack up fairly equally. The Patriots’ run defense has been much more impressive, though. as New England leads the NFL in yards allowed per rush attempt. This was on display the last time these two teams met as the Patriots limited Breece Hall to just 1.5 yards per carry in September.
If the Patriots can find similar traction against the Jets’ running game, it’s tough to see Trevor Siemian and a bottom-tier offensive line having enough in the tank to win in Foxborough, where even an aging Belichick seems to find a way when the weather gets difficult. Patriots moneyline (-125) is a better play than Patriots -2 in what could be an ugly, low-scoring game.
Jets vs. Patriots prediction: Patriots Moneyline (-125)
Jets vs. Patriots Best Odds
The Patriots are 2-point home favorites, entering at -125 on the moneyline. The over/under is 30.5 points.
Conditions are expected to be wet, potentially even snowy, so it’s no surprise the over/under is so low. Will either team have the advantage in that kind of weather? Both of these offenses are already impossible to trust through the air.
Jets vs. Patriots Key Injuries
Jets QB Zach Wilson remains out with a concussion. OT Duane Brown (back) is out for the season, while TE Jeremy Ruckert will also miss Week 18 with a concussion. DE John Franklin-Myers (ankle) is fully expected to play.
For the Patriots, OT Trent Brown missed practice midweek with an illness. DT Christian Barmore (knee), CB Jonathan Jones (knee), and WR DeVante Parker (ribs) were all limited in practice midweek, but there isn’t any indication they might miss Sunday’s game.
Jets vs. Patriots Key Matchups
Here are some of the key matchups that could decide Jets vs. Patriots.
Jets Pass-Rush vs. Patriots Offensive Line
The Jets lost to the Patriots earlier in the season partly because they couldn’t force New England’s offense into many mistakes. While scoring 10 points offensively was part of the problem, without a doubt, not being able to do what most teams have been able to do against an ugly passing game cost New York. Mac Jones wasn’t sacked at all by the Jets last time out. Can they get to Bailey Zappe this time?
Zappe has absorbed 3+ sacks in three of his last five games, and he’s thrown 5 INT over his last four. The Patriots will more than likely run the ball often, but for the Jets, the key to getting a much-needed short field will be making Zappe feel pressure and forcing him into costly decisions – something they couldn’t do much well enough to Jones.
Patriots’ Run Defense vs. Breece Hall
Whether it’s Trevor Siemian or Zach Wilson, it’s tough to imagine the Jets finding much success in the passing game in wet conditions (or even in dry conditions). Breece Hall will again be a focal point of the offense in the season finale. The Patriots happen to lead the NFL with only 3.2 yards per carry allowed this season, and they totally shut down Hall along with Dalvin Cook in September.
Hall has been a big play-or-nothing player for much of the season, but he’s started to look like a more consistent back over the last two weeks with 5.4 yards per attempt and regular usage out of the Jets’ backfield. Slowing him down is the Patriots’ key to curtailing the Jets’ already-limited offense.