New York Knicks vs. Brooklyn Nets Preview (11/9/22): Prediction, Starting Lineups, Odds

The New York Knicks (5-5) face the Brooklyn Nets (4-7) in a battle for the title of New York’s best NBA team. Although the idea would have been foolish the past few seasons, the Knicks have a legitimate case to be ranked above the Nets.

Will the Nets secure the victory despite Kyrie Irving’s absence? Odds, predictions, key matchups, and starting lineups are found below.

New York Knicks vs. Brooklyn Nets Betting Odds

Brooklyn is a slight favorite, as the spread currently stands at -3.5 Nets with their moneyline at -154. On the other hand, the Knicks moneyline is +140, which means they must theoretically hold a win percentage of at least 42% here to be profitable long-term. The 220.5 over under mark is one of the smaller lines for Wednesday games.

New York Knicks vs. Brooklyn Nets Prediction

I am taking both the Knicks covering and their moneyline because I believe +3.5 and +140 hold enough inherent long-term value to be profitable.

Although Irving is a headache off the court, his scoring production cannot be ignored. Irving opened the season cold from deep, but he was still pouring in 26.9 PPG on a 45.3 FG%. His replacement, Edmond Sumner, is severely struggling with his shot, and he lacks the polished playmaking expected of a point guard. The Nets are heavily downgrading with the switch from Irving to Sumner.

While Ben Simmons seems like a logical choice to start at point guard, he remains scared to shoot even layups. When he’s on the court, the Nets are essentially playing 4v5 on offense because the defender completely sags off of him to the paint. His defense isn’t elite anymore, so he’s a net negative. Meanwhile, the Nets also field Harris, Curry, Thomas, and Mills as backcourt options. All four are poor defenders, and most of them are undersized as well.

This situation is especially concerning considering the Knicks trot out Jalen Brunson (19.7 PPG, 7.3 APG, 50.7 FG%) and RJ Barrett (19.6 PPG, 2.9 APG, 43.1 FG%). Both can shred defenses on or off-ball, and New York also owns effective scorers off the bench in Rose, Quickley, and Fournier. Look for the Knicks starting lineup and bench backcourt to consistently exploit the Nets.

Durant is absolutely imposing his will on opponents this season to the tune of 31 PPG on a 51.8 FG%. The Knicks do not possess the personnel to bother him, but there is hope that Julius Randle (20 PPG) can nearly counter his offensive production. He started the season slow, but Randle has picked up the pace over the past two games by scoring 29 and 31 points. Brooklyn’s defense is average against forwards, so Randle has an excellent chance to replicate those performances. If he can copy Durant’s output, then the Knicks should be favored to win this game.

Overall, the Knicks are deeper and more balanced than the Nets. Durant’s individual brilliance and their three-point shooters are a massive concern; however, backing the Knicks is the profitable move because it’s likely they win this matchup at least 42% of the time.

Betting Trends

• Knicks are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 road games
• Knicks are 14-5 ATS in the last 19 meetings
• Over is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings

Key Matchups

Which team will win the positional matchups? Check out below for these vital battles.

Bench Frontcourt

O’Neale, Durant, and Claxton form a functioning frontcourt, but they mask the fact that their actual rotation is starved. Brooklyn doesn’t have even an average frontcourt option to bring off the bench, which spells trouble against the Knicks. Obi Toppin is having an all-around impact for New York at 10.8 PPG, 4 RPG, and 1.2 APG on a tremendous 49/41/100 shooting split. In addition, free agent acquisition Isaiah Hartenstein provides stifling rim protection while contributing 8 PPG.

If Brooklyn’s second unit can compete inside and neutralize the Knicks, then they have a far greater chance of canceling out the benches. However, it’s improbable the Nets will be able to achieve this feat because they lack the necessary two-way skill.

.@obitoppin1 with 15 PTS in 14 MIN

No stoppin’ Toppin. pic.twitter.com/c1jTdffoN0

— NEW YORK KNICKS (@nyknicks) November 8, 2022

Three-Point Shooting

The Nets have more firepower from distance than the Knicks, but not by an absurd margin. For Brooklyn to win this matchup, they must convert their threes at a higher rate because New York owns more interior production. The opportunities will be there, as the Knicks are allowing the most open and wide open (4+ feet from nearest defender) 3PA at 37.7 per game. The Nets, on the other hand, allow the 14th most at 30.5 per game. If Curry, Harris, and Mills don’t offset their defense by sinking three-pointers, then the Knicks will dominate their minutes.

No quit. pic.twitter.com/KBBb2FDFP9

— Brooklyn Nets (@BrooklynNets) November 8, 2022

New York Knicks Starting Lineup

PG: Jalen Brunson
SG: RJ Barrett
SF: Cam Reddish
PF: Julius Randle
C: Jericho Sims

Brooklyn Nets Starting Lineups

PG: Edmond Sumner
SG: Joe Harris
SF: Royce O’Neale
PF: Kevin Durant
C: Nic Claxton

Key Injuries

New York Knicks Injuries: Mitchell Robinson (O), Quentin Grimes (Q)

Brooklyn Nets Injuries: Kyrie Irving (O), TJ Warren (O), Yuta Watanabe (O)