New York Knicks vs. Detroit Pistons Preview (11/29/22): Prediction, Starting Lineups, Odds
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The New York Knicks (9-11) have lost four of their last five, but they face the sinking Detroit Pistons (5-17) on Tuesday night. Immanuel Quickley (9.4 PPG) is questionable for New York, but otherwise the injury report is clean. On the other hand, the Pistons may be without a number of key players. Cade Cunningham is out, while Bogdanovic and Ivey are questionable.
Can the Pistons avenge their 121-112 loss to the Knicks on November 11th? Odds, predictions, key matchups, and starting lineups are below.
New York Knicks vs. Detroit Pistons Betting Odds
Because the Knicks are only -4.5 here, it’s wise to assume that Detroit’s questionable players will suit up. New York’s moneyline can be found at -186, and it may be a fixture in parlays. The Pistons moneyline is +165, so they must win 38% of the time to be profitable long-term. This matchup’s over under (226) is on the larger side for two sub-optimal offenses.
New York Knicks vs. Detroit Pistons Prediction
The Pistons have been covering recently, and the Knicks rank 24th ATS this season. However, the line is overthinking it – take the Knicks to cover -4.5 here.
Detroit’s defensive strength is defending spot up shooters and the three-point line in general. They neutralize open attempts by rotating quickly and using their length to contest. However, the Pistons struggle mightily containing pick and roll ball handlers that navigate the screen for a drive. In addition, Bagley and Stewart are undersized, poor rim protectors that fail to deter shot attempts around the rim.
Enter the Knicks, who rank 2nd in drives per game, 5th in restricted area FGA, and 3rd in paint FGA. Jalen Brunson in particular will shred the Pistons and force the defense to collapse inside. He is 4th in the NBA at 18.2 drives per game, and he owns a sparkling 55.7 FG% and 3.9 TOV%. Brunson has plenty of options once he knifes his way inside besides shooting too. Robinson always looks for a lob, and spot up shooters will be more open because the defense had to at a minimum shade inside.
In addition, the Pistons are 22nd defending isolation offense. Considering the Knicks can utilize Randle, Barrett, and Brunson as isolation scorers, New York will be able to recover from broken plays and hit tough shots. It continues off the bench too, as Quickley and Rose are effective.
Should New York struggle with efficiency, they can recover by dominating the glass for second chance opportunities. They are 7th in OREB%, and the Pistons are 26th in opponent OREB%. Robinson, Randle, Toppin, and Hartenstein likely grab a plethora of offensive rebounds and convert them into put-backs, which inherently have a large expected points per possession.
Because these high percentage shots will plague the Pistons all game, it’s likely that the Knicks capitalize on their shot quality and rack up points versus a Detroit squad that ranks 29th in Defensive Rating.
On the other side, Detroit’s potential biggest advantage will be three-point shooting. The Knicks allow the 3rd most open and wide open 3PA, but unfortunately for the Pistons, they own a poor 33.2 3PT%. If they can bump their efficiency and exploit this weakness, then a barrage of three-pointers could keep them in covering distance.
Overall, it’s a great spot to back the Knicks because their strengths overlap with the Pistons weaknesses. New York also has a strong talent advantage over a youthful Detroit team that is looking to the future.
Betting Trends
- Knicks are 16-6 ATS in their last 22 road games
- Pistons are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall
- Knicks are 8-1-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings
- Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Detroit
Key Matchups
Which team will win the positional matchups? Check out below for these vital battles.
Free Throws
The Pistons rank 2nd in FTA Rate, while the Knicks are 23rd in opponent FTA Rate. If Detroit can stick fouls onto key players early and produce plenty of free throw attempts, then that would also significantly boost their chances of covering. This is because of the tremendous value of free throws. A league average free throw shooter (78.3%) produces 1.566 points per possession (assuming 2 FTA), and a 52 3PT% shooter produces 1.56 points per possession
Benches
The Knicks have a deep bench filled with diverse scorers. Quickley and Rose are slashers, Reddish can shoot from distance, Hartenstein operates in the post, and Toppin is a mixed bag. They are far more talented than Detroit’s bench on both ends of the court. If the Knicks can dominate this matchup as expected, then they have a great chance of covering.
New York Knicks Starting Lineup
PG: Jalen Brunson
SG: RJ Barrett
SF: Quentin Grimes
PF: Julius Randle
C: Mitchell Robinson
Detroit Pistons Starting Lineups
PG: Jaden Ivey
SG: Saddiq Bey
SF: Bojan Bogdanovic
PF: Marvin Bagley III
C: Isaiah Stewart
Key Injuries
New York Knicks Injuries: Immanuel Quickley (Q)
Detroit Pistons Injuries: Cade Cunningham (O), Bojan Bogdanovic (Q), Jaden Ivey (Q), Isaiah Stewart (P)
