New York Knicks vs. Golden State Warriors Preview (11/18/22): Prediction, Starting Lineups, Odds
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The New York Knicks (8-7) continue their Western Conference road trip against the slumping Golden State Warriors (6-9) on Friday night. Mitchell Robinson has missed the past seven games for New York, and he’s doubtful for this contest. For Golden State, Jonathan Kuminga is questionable, while Andre Iguodala remains out.
Will the Warriors bounce back from their 130-119 loss to a Suns team sans Chris Paul and Cam Johnson? Odds, predictions, key matchups, and starting lineups are below.
New York Knicks vs. Golden State Warriors Betting Odds
Despite Golden State’s ghastly start to the season, they are heavily favored in this matchup. The spread is -6.5 Warriors with their moneyline at an ugly -245. New York’s moneyline is being offered around +225, which means they must win 31% of the time to be profitable long-term. The over under is a colossal 233.5 total points – one of the largest lines for games today.
New York Knicks vs. Golden State Warriors Prediction
I am confident the Warriors will win this game, so the best bet is backing them to cover.
If it seems as though I have taken contradicting stances on Golden State this season, that is because I have. They are a completely different team at home versus on the road, so it’s necessary to categorize them based on game location for each matchup. The Warriors are 5th in Net Rating at home with a sparkling 6-1 record. On the other hand, they are 28th in Net Rating away with a dreadful 0-8 record. Fortunately for Golden State, this contest takes place in Chase Center.
At a general level, there are extremely concerning trends for New York here. They allow the second most open and wide open 3PA per game (4+ feet from nearest defender). Golden State attempts the second most catch and shoot threes and converts at an effective 37% clip. In addition, the Knicks rank 25th in transition defense versus a Warriors squad that ranks 1st in pace and 12th in transition offense. It would hardly be surprising if the Warriors unleash a barrage of transition three-pointers that extend an intimidating lead. It’s unlikely New York can retaliate with their own shooting, as they are 27th in catch and shoot 3PT% and 27th in pull-up eFG%.
RJ Barrett’s illness is assuredly affecting his performance, and it may continue to hamper him against a Warriors squad that plays at a lightning-quick pace. Over the last three games, Barrett is 11/46 from the field, 0/16 from three, and 11/18 from the charity stripe. He won’t receive many chances to catch his breath, especially considering he must chase Golden State’s guards all game. The outlook for New York’s third leading scorer is grim in this matchup should Barrett remain hindered from his illness.
Meanwhile, a decent portion of the Knicks offense is derived from Julius Randle (21.3 PPG) either isolating or posting up. He hasn’t been efficient with his opportunities though, and Draymond Green’s defense remains a formidable obstacle. Although Randle will end up with plenty of points, I expect him to require an undesirable amount of field goal attempts.
On the other side, the Warriors possess a fantastic matchup. Curry is fresh off a 50-point performance against the Suns on a 60.7 FG% and 63.6 3PT%. At 34-years-old, he is somehow surpassing even his unanimous MVP numbers. Opponents have started to frequently trap Curry once he crosses half-court, but Golden State’s ball movement and off-ball relocation mean it only delays the problem. Curry will eventually get the chance to mercilessly hunt Jalen Brunson in the pick and roll, and the Knicks cannot send help because of the Warriors decoying defenders away. Golden State’s offense revolves around a large amount of cuts, handoffs, and off screen shots, so New York’s defensive communication has to be stellar, which is doubtful.
Overall, the Warriors are a tough matchup for the Knicks, especially since it’s at Golden State. I’m expecting Curry and company to prevail by 8-10 points after New York makes a run in the 4th quarter to keep it closer than it really was.
Betting Trends
- Knicks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games
- Warriors are 16-6 ATS in their last 22 home games
- Knicks are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Golden State
- Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Golden State
Key Matchups
Which team will win the positional matchups? Check out below for these vital battles.
Free Throws & Rebounding
As long as the Warriors struggle in these departments, this will remain a key matchup no matter the opponent. Golden State ranks 30th in opponent free throw rate and 24th in opponent offensive rebounding percentage. New York is average at drawing free throws, but they do rank 9th in offensive rebounding percentage because of Randle, Hartenstein, and Sims. If the Knicks can plant fouls on key Warriors early and produce a significant number of put-backs, then they have a far greater chance of covering the spread. Golden State will outscore them on a points per possession basis due to superior shooting, so the Knicks need more opportunities.
Anthony Lamb vs. Knicks Bench
Golden State’s second unit is extremely shaky, but Lamb’s ascension radically improves their ability to match opposing benches. In seven games, the third year forward from Vermont is producing 8.7 PPG, 3.7 RPG, and 1.6 APG. He owns a 50 3PT% on 3.7 attempts per game, which has provided consistency to an inconsistent bench. Because the Knicks bring Toppin and Sims off the bench, it’s vital that Lamb competes on the glass in addition to knocking down catch and shoot threes.
Five triples
all in the second halfAnthony Lamb was hot from beyond the arc last night vs. the Spurs 📽️ pic.twitter.com/mVKNt9damg
— Golden State Warriors (@warriors) November 15, 2022
New York Knicks Starting Lineup
PG: Jalen Brunson
SG: RJ Barrett
SF: Cam Reddish
PF: Julius Randle
C: Isaiah Hartenstein
Golden State Warriors Starting Lineups
PG: Stephen Curry
SG: Klay Thompson
SF: Andrew Wiggins
PF: Draymond Green
C: Kevon Looney
Key Injuries
New York Knicks Injuries: Mitchell Robinson (D)
Golden State Warriors Injuries: Jonathan Kuminga (Q), Andre Iguodala (O)
