New York Knicks vs. Miami Heat Game 6: Prediction, Starting Lineups, Odds (5/12/23)

The New York Knicks (2-3) managed to extend their playoff lives on Wednesday, but they once again face elimination tonight against the Miami Heat (3-2). Immanuel Quickley is doubtful with an ankle injury, while Tyler Herro remains out due to a broken hand suffered versus Milwaukee. Can Miami close out New York and reach their third Eastern Conference Finals in the last four years?

Check out below for Knicks vs Heat predictions, odds, trends, and starting lineups.

New York Knicks vs. Miami Heat Prediction

Prediction: Miami -6

A home game with a trip to the Eastern Conference Finals on the line? There are few teams I trust more in this situation than Jimmy Butler, Eric Spoelstra, and the Miami Heat.

Butler has been incredible this series on both ends of the court despite nursing a sore ankle. He’s averaging 24.8 PPG, 7 RPG, 6.5 APG, 2 SPG, and 1.5 BPG on a 47 FG%. When he’s on the court, the Heat produce a hyper-elite 128 Offensive Rating and 106 Defensive Rating. The Knicks don’t have the tools to stop him from getting to his spots, and I expect Butler to reach savant levels of shot-making given the gravity of the game. Spoelstra can also place Butler on the hot hand to neutralize their impact and break possessions. Look for tonight will be the Jimmy Butler show.

Adebayo is defending New York’s bigs at a high level and holding up on high screens. He’s deterring shots around the basket while blocking Robinson and Randle from completely controlling the offensive glass for second chance points. Plus, his interior scoring and connective passing provides Butler with a solid scoring partner. Look for Butler and Adebayo to hound Brunson and Randle down the stretch, often forcing others to initiate the offense.

Miami’s bench also hasn’t suffered as expected. Kyle Lowry is having an all-around impact since coming off the bench, and Caleb Martin somewhat fills that 3&D role. With Quickley doubtful too, the Knicks are lacking an off the dribble scorer that can get scorching hot. Outside of Brunson, New York’s guards offer limited self-creation.

And based on the expected score per ShotQuality, the Heat are dominating the Knicks too. Miami should be 4-1 with all four wins coming by at least six points based on every single shot’s quality (shooter, defender distance, shot type, etc.) this series. Over the long-term, that’s a great sign for the Heat.

Overall, it’s difficult to fade Jimmy Butler in a close-out game at home, especially when Miami’s supporting cast can exploit New York’s weaknesses.

New York Knicks vs. Miami Heat Betting Odds

The Heat are a six-point favorite here with a -240 moneyline. For New York’s +210 moneyline to be a profitable play, they must win this game at least 33% of the time. The over under sits at a tiny 207.5 points, although it has hovered around this mark all series. New York is 1-4 ATS in the last five meetings, and the over is 5-1 in the last six meetings at Miami.

Betting Trends

  • Knicks are 38-18-1 ATS in their last 57 road games
  • Knicks are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings
  • Knicks are 3-7 ATS in the last 10 meetings at Miami
  • Over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings at Miami

Key Matchups

Which teams will win the game-determining matchups?

Knicks Offensive Rebounding

The Knicks ranked 2nd in offensive rebound percentage during the regular season, while the Heat allowed the 4th lowest offensive rebound percentage. Miami has limited New York so far, and it’s imperative that they continue to do so. Put-backs and kick-outs to open shooters inherently hold a massive expected points per possession. With New York’s offense already struggling, Miami cannot bail them out with easy points.

Heat 3PT Shooting

The Heat are 21/77 on open 3PA and 26/75 on wide open 3PA. Shooting 47/152 (30.9%) on quality looks from three is completely dragging down their offense. Granted, Miami doesn’t possess sharpshooters, but that percentage is far too low. If the Heat can have an average night from deep, then they should cruise here.

New York Knicks Starting Lineup

PG: Jalen Brunson
SG: Quentin Grimes
SF: RJ Barrett
PF: Julius Randle
C: Mitchell Robinson

Miami Heat Starting Lineups

PG: Gabe Vincent
SG: Max Strus
SF: Jimmy Butler
PF: Kevin Love
C: Bam Adebayo

Key Injuries

New York Knicks Injuries: Immanuel Quickley (D), Jericho Sims (O)

Miami Heat Injuries: Jimmy Butler (P), Tyler Herro (O), Caleb Martin (P), Victor Oladipo (O), Haywood Highsmith (P)

Post
Braxton has been covering the NBA for Lineups since the 2022 season. He's worked with multiple collegiate coaching staffs regarding analytics and scouting, which has allowed him to understand the game on a deeper level. Braxton is also a contributor at Thunderous Intentions.

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