New York Mets vs Los Angeles Dodgers (6/3/22) Starting Lineup, Betting Odds, Prediction

Thursday night gave us the first matchup of the season between the teams with the two best records (disregarding the very early season).

The Los Angeles Dodgers won. What else is new.

Tony Gonsolin – who has been superb this season – out-dueled Taijuan Walker and the New York Mets. Walker and the Met relievers pitched well, allowing just two runs, but the Dodgers pitched a full-game shutout.

The Mets still retain a 10-game lead over the NL East entering Friday’s matchup, while the Dodgers are hanging on to a 3.5-game lead in the NL West.

The Mets will send Chris Bassitt to the mound while Tyler Anderson will start for the Dodgers. Which team has the edge?

Let’s dive into the starting lineups, betting odds, and my prediction for this Friday night matchup.

New York Mets vs Los Angeles Dodgers Odds

The Dodgers are huge favorites, predictably. Tyler Anderson has been a stud.

Boy, it sure would be nice for the Mets to have either of their top two starting pitchers right now. That would give them a much higher chance to win this game.

But I think the Mets might be undervalued with these non-All Stars on the mound. Bassitt is a rather good pitcher, and the Mets are 7-3 in his starts this season.

New York Mets Starting Lineup

CF B. Nimmo L
RF S. Marte R
SS F. Lindor S
1B P. Alonso R
3B E. Escobar S
LF M. Canha R
DH J.D. Davis R
2B L. Guillorme L
C T. Nido R

New York Mets vs Tyler Anderson

Anderson has been so good to start the year. He’s also coming off two starts like this:

• 5/23 @ WSN: 8.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 H, 8 K, 0 BB
• 5/29 @ ARI: 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 H, 6 K, 1 BB

Sure, those are starts against the Nationals and Diamondbacks. But that’s a pretty dominant two-game stretch. It’s lowered his ERA to 2.90 on the season, and his WHIP is still at 1.01.

Anderson also sports a spotless 6-0 record.

He’s an interesting pitcher, as Anderson’s primary pitch is a changeup while his four-seam travels only 90mph. But he keeps exit velocities down and is one of the best pitchers in the league in chase rate. Those are two stats that track with his arsenal.

That might work against the Mets. The team from Queens has a bottom-five exit velocity and hard-hit rate.

But the Mets make contact, whiff at a bottom-five rate, and strikeout at a bottom-three rate. Although those numbers are slightly worse against LHPs, which is concerning.

The Mets still grade out with a 109 wRC+ against southpaws, so Anderson shouldn’t stroll into this one. Plus, the Mets wRC+ against that side has jumped to 118 over the last month.

Los Angeles Dodgers Starting Lineup

RF M. Betts R
1B F. Freeman L
SS T. Turner R
C W. Smith R
DH E. Rios L
3B J. Turner R
CF C. Bellinger L
LF C. Taylor R
2B G. Lux L

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Chris Bassitt

The regression train has been hunting Bassitt all season. It’s finally entered the station.

He’s allowed 13 runs on 19 hits with a 14:7 K/BB ratio over just the last 16 ⅔ innings. He held the Phillies to just one run over six innings in his last start, but it’s still been a rather unimpressive stretch.

Bassitt’s exit velocity has still been as low as ever, but it’s been rising slightly in recent games.

It’s worth noting some of the guys on the Dodgers’ roster have rocked Bassitt in the past. In 20 lifetime PAs, eight different Dodgers have combined to go 7-for-20 with two doubles and a home run. Those guys have posted a .357 xBA and a .540 xSLG in those batted balls.

That doesn’t even include Freddie Freeman, who has posted a 141 wRC+ so far this season with 19 doubles and 30 RBIs.

Surprisingly, Freeman has only hit four home runs so far this season.

That doesn’t matter, as the Dodgers have hit the fifth-most HRs in MLB this season (60). This is the best lineup in baseball, and their 119 wRC+ proves it.

It’s impossible to overstate how hot Mookie Betts is right now. On April 26, Betts’ OPS dropped to .646. And since, he’s posted a 1.152 OPS with 14 HRs, 14 BBs, and just 20 strikeouts. He’s batting .351 during the time despite his .327 BABIP, hitting 10 doubles in the process.

New York Mets vs Los Angeles Dodgers Pick & Prediction

My pick: New York Mets ML (+143 at WynnBet Sportsbook)

I think we’re in a good zig-zag spot for the Mets here.

The Dodgers dominated the first game, and Anderson has been crazy hot while Bassitt has been on a cold streak.

Plus, Anderson is in for a rude wake-up call after his last two starts against mediocre opponents. The Mets sport a very talented lineup.

I like the value here, as I think the Mets should be closer to +125 on the ML.