The Yankees and Mets meet for the final time this season on Tuesday night, as these crosstown rivals look for one more statement win. The Yankees have face planted in August and lost their first two games against the Mets in July. While Aaron Boone’s squad still has a comfortable division lead, more struggles from Frankie Montas and a loss to the championship-hopeful Mets would only turn up the heat on a flailing ballclub.
Let’s take a look at starting lineups, betting odds, and predictions for Tuesday’s matchup.
New York Mets vs. New York Yankees Betting Odds
The Mets and Yankees are about even on the moneyline in this one, with the over/under set at 8 runs. The Mets would’ve been pretty clear favorites if Jacob deGrom was on the mound, but the uncertainty surrounding Taijuan Walker plus the Yankees’ (small) home field advantage have oddsmakers split.
The Mets clearly have more momentum than the Yankees right now, and they have a lineup capable of getting under Montas’ skin. If Walker truly is healthy, Buck Showalter’s team might be the better value.
New York Mets Starting Lineup
CF B. Nimmo L
RF S. Marte R
SS F. Lindor S
1B P. Alonso R
DH D. Vogelbach L
2B J. McNeil L
LF M. Canha R
3B B. Baty L
C J. McCann R
New York Mets vs. Frankie Montas
Frankie Montas’ first three starts as a Yankee can be categorized as unsuccessful. The former A’s righty has a 9.00 ERA with New York after surrendering 6 runs to the Blue Jays in his home debut last week. Meanwhile, JP Sears – one of four prospects traded to Oakland for Montas – has thrived with his new club.
If there’s reason for hope against the Mets, Montas did settle down in his second start in a Yankee uniform. With his home debut now behind him, maybe Montas similarly is more relaxed the second time out. In all, Montas has a 3.87 ERA across 22 starts in 2022, with a 3.62 FIP, 1.14 WHIP, and 8.9 K/9 rate.
The Mets are having their best offensive month of the season, carrying a .272 AVG and .784 OPS through 22 games in August. New York has stayed hot even while Pete Alonso continues to search for answers. Why? Depth. Even without Luis Guillorme and Eduardo Escobar, guys continue to step up. Daniel Vogelbach has hit well since coming over at the deadline, and this is a Mets lineup that doesn’t rely on the home run to score. Jeff McNeil has 16 hits in his last 8 games alone, while Mark Canha (.407), Starling Marte, and Francisco Lindor are all hitting north of .300 over their last 11.
Montas doesn’t have any glaring weaknesses in his profile, but he’s been prone to allowing big innings since joining the Yankees. The Mets will certainly put some hits on the board, and Montas can’t allow one or two hits to give way to an onslaught.
New York Yankees Starting Lineup
2B D.J. LeMahieu R
RF A. Judge R
1B A. Rizzo L
3B J. Donaldson R
LF A. Benintendi L
DH G. Torres R
C J. Trevino R
CF E. Florial L
SS I. Kiner-Falefa R
New York Yankees vs. Taijuan Walker
The Yankees face Max Scherzer on Monday but avoid a second Cy Young winner Tuesday, as the Mets are rolling with Taijuan Walker to close out the series. It’s tough to know what to expect from Walker right now, as the right-hander exited his last start with a bulging disc in his back but was able to avoid an IL stint.
Walker first looked bothered by an injury earlier in the month, when he was hammered for 8 runs in an inning-plus of work against the Braves. He’s walked five batters in eight innings since, so it’s possible he won’t have as much control as usual on Tuesday. Walker has a 3.36 ERA across 21 starts this season, with a 3.67 FIP, 1.20 WHIP, and a 6.8 K/9 rate – the lowest of any full season in his career.
The Yankees’ offense has been anemic of late – so anemic that no qualified hitter on the team has an OPS higher than .800 over the team’s last 10 games. New York has a .216 AVG and .645 OPS in August, with home runs down significantly as the team awaits Giancarlo Stanton’s return on Thursday. Walker has kept home runs to a minimum this season, though time will tell if Yankee Stadium’s unique features can change that.
Anthony Rizzo and Gleyber Torres have started to put some extra-base hits on the board, but too often the Yankees haven’t been able to do much more than lace some singles here and there. Pitchers generally aren’t giving Aaron Judge anything to hit, which will continue to be the case until the lineup shows some signs of life. Walker just can’t give the Yankees any extra help. If his control issues from the last two starts linger, the Yankees instantly have an advantage.
New York Mets vs. New York Yankees Picks & Prediction
My pick: Mets Moneyline (-110)
These Mets are starting to make people believe. They have a way of winning games you wouldn’t expect them to win, and it’s only natural that they’d bounce back from Max Scherzer giving up 4 runs by winning with Taijuan Walker on the mound.
The Mets are well positioned to put together a big inning or two against Frankie Montas, even if he’s more settled than he was in his last start. With Scott Effross joining Clay Holmes on the IL, the Yankees’ bullpen is also a fresh concern against such a great late-inning offense.