The red-hot Mets will run into the red-hot Aaron Nola in this divisional game. The Phillies could really use a win, considering they’re in the heart of a wicked NL Wildcard race.
But can they get a win behind one of their aces? Or will the Mets roll again in this one?
Let’s dive into the starting lineups, betting odds, and my prediction for this Friday’s matchup.
New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies Odds
Vegas is pricing these two pitchers properly. Nola’s statistics don’t pop off the page, but he is an elite pitcher. He can drag his roster to a win every five days.
However, the Mets have advantages in almost every other area. So, I wonder if the Mets are slightly undervalued at this line.
I also wouldn’t overlook Chris Bassitt. He’s been a great middle-rotation piece for New York and the perfect Robin to Max Scherzer and Jacob deGrom’s Batman.
Let’s dig in a little further.
New York Mets Starting Lineup
CF B. Nimmo L
RF S. Marte R
SS F. Lindor S
1B P. Alonso R
DH D. Vogelbach L
2B J. McNeil L
LF M. Canha R
3B B. Baty L
C J. McCann R
New York Mets vs Aaron Nola
Only Sandy Alcantara has pitched more innings than Nola this season, who has thrown a whopping 152 ⅔ innings over 23 starts. That adds up to just about 6 ⅓ innings per start, which is an impressive feat in this age of pitching.
His effectiveness has also been wildly impressive, pitching to a 3.06 ERA so far. Plus, he’s been unlucky! His xERA and FIP are both at 2.76, which means we can expect more quality starts from Nola moving forward.
The Mets will be a tough cookie to crack. The Mets have the third-highest wRC+ over the past month (129), fueled by a strikeout rate that remains below 20%. The Mets make more contact than anyone in the league, fouling off balls at an insane rate while also putting balls in play. It’ll be tough for Nola to record strikeouts in this one.
The Mets don’t hit the ball hard, but six guys in the regular nine-man rotation have an OPS+ above 100. So, in the end, the Mets are an elite offense.
Philadelphia Phillies Starting Lineup
LF K. Schwarber L
1B R. Hoskins R
3B A. Bohm R
C J. Realmuto R
RF N. Castellanos R
DH D. Hall L
2B J. Segura R
SS B. Stott L
CF B. Zimmer L
Philadelphia Phillies vs Chris Bassitt
I think Bassitt is so underappreciated. A guy who averages over six innings per start with an xERA a touch over 3.00. He churns out quality starts and his batted-ball statistics are elite, as Bassitt ranks above the 90th percentile in avg. exit velocity, hard-hit rate, and barrel rate.
Bassitt is a pitch-to-contact guy, as many righty sinkerballers are. But the strikeouts are actually there, considering he strikes out about a quarter of the guys he faced. That’s above the regular MLB pitcher. His slider, cutter, and four-seamer all have Whiff rates around 30%, so the strikeout ability is there.
Got that dawg in him.
8 fantastic innings for Chris Bassitt! pic.twitter.com/DboKRAvQz0
— SNY (@SNYtv) August 9, 2022
The Phillies are just short-handed without Bryce Harper. Kyle Schwarber is amazing, and his NL-leading 34 home runs is also astounding, but six of the top 12 Phillies in PAs this season have an OPS+ below 100.
It’s an offense that hasn’t been able to string together enough games with enough quality PAs. Nick Castellanos has been a total disappointment alongside Didi Gregorious and Odubel Herrera – the latter two don’t even play for the Phillies right now.
The Phillies are locked into a tough Wildcard race. They will need the bullpen to step up alongside a high-end rotation, and they will need the defense to continue playing well. After a disastrous start, the Phillies have been league-average in most defensive metrics throughout the second half.
New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies Pick & Prediction
My picks: New York Mets ML (+115 at Fox Bet Sportsbook)
For how elite Nola has been, the Phillies are just 10-13 in his starts this season. Plus, he’s been slightly off lately, allowing more than five earned runs in a start twice during his last six starts.
In the meantime, the Mets are 14-8 in Bassitt’s starts this season. He continues to produce quality outings and, once the Mets get the lead, the top bullpen in baseball carries him home.
The Mets are a better offensive and defensive team than the Phillies as well, despite how good Schwarber has been.
The Mets are too good to not bet as underdogs. We’re starting to get into Dodger territory with this team.