New York Mets vs San Diego Padres (6/6/22) Starting Lineup, Betting Odds, Prediction

The Mets were humbled over the weekend, with the Dodgers proving their offense isn’t invincible. But New York has built up enough goodwill in the NL East to lose a series here or there (36-19, 8.5-game lead).

Meanwhile, the Padres have to battle for every possible win. The NL West is filled with talent, but San Diego is back among the elites (32-21, 3.5-game Wildcard lead).

Look for Carlos Carrasco to make another solid start (6-1, 3.63 ERA) while Blake Snell continues to mount a comeback (0-2, 4.80 ERA).

Who has the edge?

Let’s dive into the starting lineups, betting odds, and my predictions for this Monday night matchup at PetCo Park.

New York Mets vs San Diego Padres Odds

At home, the Padres are predictable favorites. Given they’re laying under -120, Vegas likely projects these two as true-talent equals in a neutral setting.

Plus, the Mets are likely discounted because of their lackluster series in Los Angeles.

But does that make the Mets undervalued? This is still the second-best team in MLB record-wise coming off a series loss to the best team. Plus, New York has a starting pitcher on the mound who continues to push gems.

Let’s dive in a bit more.

New York Mets Starting Lineup

CF B. Nimmo L
RF S. Marte R
SS F. Lindor S
1B P. Alonso R
3B E. Escobar S
LF M. Canha R
DH J.D. Davis R
2B L. Guillorme L
C T. Nido R

New York Mets vs Blake Snell

In Snell’s three starts since May 18, Snell has managed a total of 15 innings. He even went six strong at St. Louis six days ago.

It hasn’t been pretty, but he’s mostly given the Padres a chance to win. He’s allowed three ER, three ER, and two ER in those starts, posting a 13:5 K/BB ratio in the process.

It’s tough to project what we’re getting from Snell going forward. He’s a southpaw four-seam pitcher who dominates through strikeouts (30 K% since 2018) and suppressing exit velocities (88.4mph avg. EV career).

That’s generally a very good combination, although Snell has never been dominant underneath that paradigm (save his 2018 Cy Young season).

His control has been very shaky since he joined San Diego. He walked 12.5% of batters last season and is on pace to walk 13.3% this year. It’s keeping his FIP and xFIP up, with both sitting north of 4.00.

The trouble is primarily coming from his secondary pitches, which he just can’t quite find his spots with.

chart 2022 06 05T105356.782

Image credit: Baseball Savant

That could spell trouble against the Mets. The Mets are incredibly disciplined, posting one of the lowest strikeout rates and whiff rates in the league this year. They don’t hit the ball hard, but they’ve murdered bad defenses by keeping the ball in play.

However, the Padres are one of the best defensive teams in the league this season, ranking second in Outs Above Average (+20) and sixth in Defensive Runs Saved (+20). That could spell trouble for the Mets.

The Mets still have the third-highest wRC+ over the last two weeks (136). So, if I were Snell, I wouldn’t sleepwalk into this start.

San Diego Padres Starting Lineup

LF J. Profar S
3B M. Machado R
1B E. Hosmer L
DH L. Voit R
2B J. Cronenworth L
RF W.Myers R
SS H. Kim R
C A. Nola R
CF T. Grisham L

San Diego Padres vs Carlos Carrasco

Carrasco’s start has been promising, especially after a disastrous year in 2021. He’s even underperforming his expected metrics (3.63 ERA, 2.94 FIP) and could see some slight positive regression moving forward.

Most important, however, is that Carrasco gives the Mets a chance to win. He’s allowed more than two runs in just three of his 10 starts this season, and the Mets have won five of his last six starts.

Carrasco works with a five-pitch mix but generally relies on a fastball-changeup-slider combination. Nothing moves especially fast, but he ranks above the 95th percentile in chase rate this season.

The Padres are league-average in chase rate, and don’t excel against any pitch except the slider (6.4 Weighted Slider Runs Created, fifth in MLB).

Moreover, the Padres have the fourth-lowest wRC+ (86) in MLB over the past month. This lineup is slumping, and Carrasco shouldn’t be scared one bit heading into Monday night’s start.

Just pitch around Manny Machado. Machado still has an OPS near 1.000, and he’s slashing .342/.418/.565 with a 25:36 BB/K ratio. He’s second in the NL in fWAR, trailing only Mookie Betts in that category – and likely in the NL MVP race as well.

New York Mets vs San Diego Padres Pick & Prediction

My picks: New York Mets ML (+100 at Fox Bet Sportsbook)

I really like the Mets in this spot.

It’s a perfect situation for a bounce-back victory after getting somewhat humbled by the Dodgers. People are selling the Mets heading into June, which means we can buy low.

Plus, I don’t trust Blake Snell at all. He’s still stretching out his arm and has been far from convincing in limited action this year. The Mets have also posted a 118 wRC+ against southpaws over the last month, while the Padre lineup is still slumping.

The bullpen matchup is tight, but I give a slight advantage to the Mets’ relievers.

All-in-all, I’d project New York as slight favorites, and will happily bet them as underdogs.

Tanner joined Lineups to cover everything, but he has vast experience in, and unlimited passion for, Major League Baseball and NCAA Basketball. He’s a McGill University grad and former (Canadian) Division-I alpine ski racer who now spends his time drinking beer and betting home underdogs. Patrick Mahomes is a poor man’s Tom Brady.

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