New York Mets vs San Francisco Giants (5/24/22) Starting Lineup, Betting Odds, Prediction

Inexplicably, the New York Mets continue to win games. They don’t hit the ball hard, but they play smart and score runs. Plus, their top two starters are out – and they still continue to win!

Meanwhile, the Giants are expected to win games. They’re still four games over .500, but they’ve lost five straight. The Giants are slumping a bit and need to pick up the slack.

With star pitcher Logan Webb on the mound for San Francisco tomorrow, the Giants are moderate favorites here.

Is it worth looking towards the Mets as smaller road underdogs?

Let’s dive into the starting lineups, betting odds, and my predictions for this Tuesday’s MLB game.

New York Mets vs San Francisco Giants Odds

The ML odds and total looks fairly fair and right on target with where I’d project it.

However, the Mets are already pulling in the sharp money, pushing the line down slightly. At the time of this writing, the Mets are pulling in less than 50% of the ML tickets but over 90% of the ML handle.

The under is getting some small sharp money, but the wind is projected to be blowing straight out to the center-left field at around 8mph. That’s something to keep an eye on moving forward.

New York Mets Starting Lineup

CF B. Nimmo L
RF S. Marte R
SS F. Lindor S
1B P. Alonso R
LF M. Canha R
DH D. Smith L
3B E. Escobar S
2B J. McNeil L
C T. Nido R

New York Mets vs Logan Webb

I have always adored Webb. He pitched like a god down the stretch in 2021 and they spun a couple of gems during the short-lived playoff run. Sadly, his heroics ended up in an NLDS exit.

And he seems to be feeling the pain a bit. Maybe it’s a sophomore slump, but his strikeout rate is way down. After recording 9.59 K/9 in 2021, that number is down to just 6.33 K/9 over nearly 50 innings in 2022.

His strikeout over/under tomorrow is 4.5. Webb cashed that number in 21 of his 29 starts last season but has failed to reach that number in four of his eight starts this season. It’s a concerning trend, and his K/inning mark ranks in just the 10th percentile of pitchers (0.71).

Screen Shot 2022 05 23 at 8.53.39 PM

Image credit: Props.Cash

Webb’s velocity is about the same, along with his spin rate. His strikeout numbers are just down. Luckily, he’s managed to suppress avg. exit velocities and his ERA is still hanging in the 3.50 area as a result. We can maybe expect a bounce-back from him in the K department, especially since projections have him finishing with about 8.50 K/9 after 2022 ends.

Brandon Nimmo is on a tear. He’s slashed .339/.409/.468 over his last 16 games and now leads the team in bWAR. He’s posted a 7:10 BB/K ratio during that time too but has no home runs.

But that’s the story of the Mets season at large. The Mets are among the bottom-five MLB teams in avg. exit velocity but pace the league in lowest Whiff rate and have the fourth-lowest strikeout rate.

The Mets aren’t going to smack the ball, but they are elite in plate discipline.

After a hot start, Francisco Lindor has just a .574 OPS over his last 30 games. His BABIP is only .253 during the time, but there should be some concern regarding this slump.

All-in-all, the Mets are 13 games over .500. Nobody in Queens should be complaining.

San Francisco Giants Starting Lineup

DH T. La Stella L
1B W. Flores R
CF M. Yastrzemski L
3B E. Longoria R
LF J, Pederson L
SS B. Crawford L
2B T. Estrada R
RF L. Gonzalez L
C J. Bart R

San Francisco Giants vs Chris Bassitt

Bassitt has just been good.

He still has an ERA under 3.00 after 48 ⅔ innings. Bassitt is overperforming his expected statistics slightly, but there isn’t a lot you can nit-pick about his game. Especially when you consider Bassitt ranks in the 96th percentile of pitchers in avg. exit velocity allowed.

chart 97

Image credit: Baseball Savant

The key to Bassitt’s improvement might be in the development of his slider. He basically ditched it in Oakland after being hurt for a few years but has steadily thrown it more year-over-year at the expense of his sinker.

He has a mediocre +2 Run Value on the pitch so far this season, but he’s allowed a .306 wOBA compared to a .276 xwOBA on the pitch. So, expect some moderate positive regression for Bassitt’s slider moving forward.

chart 2022 05 23T210712.524

Image credit: Baseball Savant

The Giants’ lineup has been good, but not great. Against righties, the bats have posted a 111 wRC+, although they may be slightly overperforming their batted-ball statistics (which are largely league average).

I’m so happy for the re-emergence of Mike Yastrzemski, who went through a major sophomore slump in 2021. He’s posted a team-high 147 OPS+ so far in 2022, having walked 14 times to just 19 strikeouts in 31 games.

New York Mets vs San Francisco Giants Pick & Prediction

My pick: San Francisco Giants ML (-130 at DraftKings Sportsbook)

Despite Webb’s relative underperformance, the Giants are 6-2 when he takes the mound this season.

Plus, San Francisco might be undervalued right now, especially playing at home. The Giants are bound to bounce back eventually after five straight losses, and it could definitely be Tuesday with their ace on the mound looking to even up this series.

At anything better than about -135, I’ll back Webb and the Giants.

Tanner joined Lineups to cover everything, but he has vast experience in, and unlimited passion for, Major League Baseball and NCAA Basketball. He’s a McGill University grad and former (Canadian) Division-I alpine ski racer who now spends his time drinking beer and betting home underdogs. Patrick Mahomes is a poor man’s Tom Brady.

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