New York Mets vs St. Louis Cardinals (4/27/22) Starting Lineup, Betting Odds, Prediction
Contents
Nothing like some daytime baseball.
The New York Mets are visiting the St. Louis Cardinals this week, and there’s little that can ruin the Metropolitan party. At 13-5, nobody has more wins than the Mets so far this season, including the Dodgers. And Jacob deGrom’s recovery from injury is progressing faster than most expected.
Meanwhile, the Cardinals’ bats have been hot, but the pitching has been just okay. Either way, St. Louis finds itself atop the NL Central in a tie with Milwaukee.
Let’s dive into the starting lineups, betting odds, and my predictions for this highly anticipated interdivisional matchup.
New York Mets vs St. Louis Cardinals Odds
This game is essentially a pick ‘em. I see no major advantage for either team that would make these odds further than -120 for either team.
The home team is favored, obviously. Steven Matz will take the mound for the Redbirds in the middle of an unlucky season, while Carlos Carrasco will start as his opponent.
But just because this is a 50/50 game doesn’t mean there isn’t value to be found.
New York Mets Starting Lineup
LF Jeff McNeil L
RF Starling Marte R
SS Francisco Lindor S
1B Pete Alonso R
3B Eduardo Escobar S
2B Robinson Cano L
DH Dominic Smith L
CF Travis Jankowski L
C James McCann R
New York Mets vs Steven Matz
Matz signed a four-year, $44 million deal with the Cardinals over the Winter. That deal hasn’t panned out yet, but there’s reason to believe it will.
Over three starts, Matz has pitched just 13 ⅔ innings with a 5.27 ERA. But his BABIP is way up at .450 and his K/9 is up over 11. His walk rate is way down as well, sitting under 2.00 BB/9. Add it all up, and he’s posted a 1.90 xFIP through these first few starts.
All-in-all, this means that Matz is due for some serious positive regression. I’m expecting him to finish this full season with an ERA below 4.00 and to be a two-win player.
Expect a steady dose of sinkers (46.6% of the time) with some changeups and curveballs mixed in. His whiff rate is high – hence the high strikeout rate – but I don’t expect that to continue throughout the whole season.
Meanwhile, the Mets might be the opposite of Matz. New York’s 123 wRC+ is fourth in MLB so far, but their .326 xwOBA is middle of the league. Meanwhile, no team in the league has a lower average exit velocity than the Mets at 86.6mph, and few teams have lower hard-hit and barrel rates.
So, look for those Mets bats to cool off as we enter the dog days.
St. Louis Cardinals Starting Lineup
RF Daniel Carlson S
1B Paul Goldschmidt R
LF Tyler O’Neill R
3B Nolan Arenado R
DH Corey Dickerson L
SS Paul DeJong R
CF Harrison Bader R
C Yadier Molina R
2B Tommy Edman S
St. Louis Cardinals vs Carlos Carrasco
The Cardinals have been fine offensively, with league average numbers in both wRC+ (103) and OPS (.672).
But similar to the Mets, I’m worried about the future of this Cardinals lineup. The Cards are second to last in xwOBA (.294) and last in xSLG (.357). Outside of Cincinnati and New York, nobody has a lower hard-hit rate or average exit velocity than St. Louis.
Honestly, I hope the Cardinals keep the magic going. Nolan Arenado has been cooking, recording 1.4 WAR already (on pace for a 16 WAR season) with a whopping 1.078 OPS. He’s already hit five home runs, drove in 14 runs, and picked up 20 hits.
If you’re looking at Arenado from a betting standpoint, he’s been cruising over his bases total.
Image credit: Props.Cash
If anyone is the clubhouse leader for NL MVP, it’s Arenado.
It’ll be tough to get past Carrasco though, as he’s putting together the best early-season stretch of his career.
Through three games, Carrasco has gone six innings in each start with an ERA under 1.50. His xFIP is still below 2.75 as well behind a K/9 close to 10 and a BB/9 under 1.00.
After dominating Washington and Arizona, Carrasco finally faced a tough lineup in San Francisco. He still pitched 7 ⅔ innings with an xFIP under 3.00, so things are going well for Carrasco so far this season.
New York Mets vs St. Louis Cardinals Pick & Prediction
My pick: Under 7.5 (-115 at DraftKings)
These are two hot lineups begging for negative regression. Meanwhile, we’re getting two pitchers with xFIPs way under 3.00.
Some of that is baked into the line, but I still think there’s a bit of value on the under in this spot.
Unders have been crazy hot to start the season, and these two teams are a combined 20-13 to the under this season. Although I’m expecting sportsbooks to adjust and these numbers to regress to .500, I’m ready to back the trend one more time in this spot.
But I’m not betting the under at anything worse than this 7.5 (-115) line.
