Redzone Report
The Red Zone Report takes a weekly look at red-zone usage and matchups to identify top options and sleepers for touchdowns in the given week of NFL action. This is a touchdown-centric piece, and the yardage outlook for the highlighted players isn’t a consideration.
Contents
Running Backs
Top Options
Kareem Hunt (KC) vs. Bills
YTD Redzone Touches – 24 Week 11 Redzone Touches – 3
Not much went right for the Chiefs in their embarrassing road loss to the Giants last week. Furthermore, Hunt’s touchdown-less streak extended to seven games. He hasn’t scored since Week 3. The rookie runner scored six touchdowns in the first three weeks of the season, but he’s failed to score since. Hunt’s dry spell has coincided with lackluster usage in the redzone. He set a single-game high of three redzone touches in the first game of the season and matched it in his next two games. From Week 4 through Week 9, he posted three bagels for redzone touches in a game and totaled only five redzone touches overall. Knowing that, it’s not surprising that he’s been held out of the end zone for such a lengthy stretch. Hidden beneath last week’s disappointing showing was a return to heavy redzone usage. Hunt touched the ball three times in the redzone, thus, matching his single-game high set in each of the first three weeks. The lack of a touchdown to show for his work isn’t ideal, but the return to prominent usage bodes well for him going forward. This week, I fully expect him to end his scoreless streak and find pay dirt against a Bills defense that’s coughed up an NFL high 13 rushing touchdowns to running backs, per Pro-Football Reference. They’ve also allowed one receiving touchdown, and the 14 rushing plus receiving touchdowns allowed to backs is also a league high.
Value/Sleeper
Danny Woodhead (BAL) vs. Texans
YTD Redzone Touches – 4 Week 11 Redzone Touches – 2
Woodhead has only played in two games this year due to suffering a hamstring injury in the season opener, but he’s proven an integral part of Baltimore’s redzone offense in his limited time on the field. Woodhead’s only played 19 offensive snaps this season, according to FantasyPros, making his four touches in the redzone all the more impressive. Put another way, he’s touched the ball in the redzone on 21.1% of his total offensive snaps played. Three of the diminutive runner’s redzone touches this year have been on receptions, which isn’t shocking considering he’s one of the game’s best receiving backs. Woodhead’s skill-set is a perfect match for this week’s matchup against the Texans. Houston’s only permitted one rushing score to an opposing running back this year, the lowest total in the NFL. However, they’ve allowed three receiving scores to backs, and that total is tied for the sixth most. I fully expect the Ravens to avoid fruitlessly rushing in the redzone against the Texans, and that makes Woodhead the best backfield bet for work in that area of the field. He’s not a safe bet for a touchdown, but there’s a lot working in his favor for gamers looking for a sleeper or value play in daily games or season-long leagues. Check out all the RB redzone touches here, https://www.lineups.com/nfl/2017/running-back-rb-redzone-touches
Wide Receivers
Top Options
Julio Jones (ATL) vs. Buccaneers
YTD Redzone Targets – 12 Week 11 Redzone Targets – 1
This is the get-right week for Jones. Okay, so maybe get right is overstating it since he’s having a good season that’s only disappointing relative to his lofty standards. The biggest eyesore on Jones’ season stat line is his one touchdown. He’s scored six touchdowns or more in every season in which he’s reached double-digit games played (with the exception of this season, so far). He’s tied for seventh at receiver in redzone targets on the year with a dozen. His paltry three receptions on a dozen targets is due for correction, and the Bucs are a great candidate for fixing his catch percentage on redzone targets against. Tampa Bay has allowed the fifth most receiving touchdowns (12) to receivers this year.
Value/Sleeper
Zay Jones (BUF) vs. Chiefs
YTD Redzone Targets – 7 Week 11 Redzone Targets – 1
Tyrod Taylor has been reinserted as Buffalo’s starting quarterback, and that’s good for the offense as a whole. Jones could be the biggest beneficiary, though. Taylor looked his way often in relief of Nathan Peterman last week, and that included a redzone target that resulted in an incompletion. The Bills were on bye in Week 10, but in their game prior to the bye, Jones hauled in his lone redzone target for a touchdown grab. The timing of Jones emerging as a redzone threat couldn’t be better for him with the Chiefs on tap this week. Kansas City is tied for the most touchdown receptions (15) allowed to receivers this year. Jones is a solid dart throw in the hopes of a touchdown snag. Check out all the WR redzone targets here, WR redzone targets
Tight Ends
Top Options
Rob Gronkowski (NE) vs. Dolphins
YTD Redzone Targets – 14 Week 11 Redzone Targets – 1
This was an easy selection for the top bet for a touchdown at tight end. Gronk is second at the position in redzone targets on the year with 14, he was targeted once last week, and he’s been targeted at least once in the redzone in eight of nine games played this year. His heavy usage in the redzone meshes perfectly with a soft matchup against the visiting Dolphins. Miami is tied for the fourth most touchdown receptions (six) ceded to tight ends this year.
Value/Sleeper
Tyler Kroft (CIN) vs. Browns
YTD Redzone Targets – 4 Week 11 Redzone Targets – 1
Kroft isn’t as deep of a sleeper as Marcedes Lewis was last week against the very same Browns the former is facing this week, but he still qualifies as a value. The Browns have surrendered the second most touchdown grabs (eight) to tight ends this year, and Kroft is responsible for two of those scores. Kroft’s coming off of a redzone target that resulted in a one-yard score last week, and in Week 4 against the Browns, he tallied half of his season-long redzone targets with a pair that afternoon that resulted in his two scores that week. Check out all the TE redzone targets here, Te Redzone Targets