Redzone Report

The Red Zone Report takes a weekly look at red-zone usage and matchups to identify top options and sleepers for touchdowns in the given week of NFL action. This is a touchdown-centric piece, and the yardage outlook for the highlighted players isn’t a consideration.

Running Backs

Top Option
Le’Veon Bell (PIT) @ Bengals
YTD Redzone Touches – 58 Week 12 Redzone Touches – 2
Don’t worry, daily gamers. I’m cognizant of how expensive Bell is, and since my hope with this piece is to provide you with talent to mix and match together on rosters, I’ll suggest some more moderately priced top options at wide receiver and tight end as well as the value/sleeper options at running back, wide receiver and tight end, too. Getting back to Bell, he touched the ball in the redzone just two times last week, but he’s far and away the leader in redzone touches by a margin of 10 with 58 total on the year. His season low for touches in the redzone is two in Week 8 and last week, but he’s touched the ball in the redzone four or more times in the other nine games. This week sets up especially well for him reaching pay dirt due to the Steelers being on the road. Ben Roethlisberger has massive home/road splits that favor playing at home, and that’s likely helped contribute to Bell scoring 23 touchdown in 30 road games in his career compared to just 13 in 28 home games. Look for him to keep up his road-scoring excellence this week.

Value/Sleeper
Marshawn Lynch (OAK) vs. Giants
YTD Redzone Touches – 15 Week 12 Redzone Touches – 4
Lynch received 26.7% of his redzone touches in last week’s game against the Broncos. He turned one of his four redzone touches into a 1-yard touchdown plunge against Denver, and he faces a softer Giants run defense with a lot working in his favor this week. Both the Giants and Broncos have allowed five touchdown runs to running backs, according to Pro-Football Reference, but Football Outsiders (FO) ranks the Broncos defensive line third in stuffed rank and the Giants defensive line a more giving 14th in stuffed rank. The softer matchup is helpful, but I’m most drawn to the likelihood of Lynch being used heavily in the redzone for the 9.5-point favorite, per Pinnacle, Raiders. Michael Crabtree has drawn eight redzone targets this year, but he’s suspended for this week. Amari Cooper has been targeted nine times in the redzone, but he appears unlikely to play this weekend after suffering a concussion last week. The Raiders’ implied team over/under total of 25.75 points suggests they’re going to score, and Lynch is a strong bet to absorb a lot of the redzone work typically reserved for Crabtree and Cooper.
Check out all the RB redzone touches here, RB redzone touches

Wide Receivers

Top Option
Davante Adams (GB) vs. Buccaneers
YTD Redzone Targets – 19 Week 12 Redzone Targets – 2
As promised, the top option at wide out isn’t in the upper-tier of pricey wide outs. Adams is a cut below that. He’s alone atop the wide receiver leaderboard with 19 redzone targets, and he’s parlayed those into five redzone touches (tied for the second most at the position). The Packers have struggled without Aaron Rodgers, but Adams has surpassed Jordy Nelson as the top receiver on the club with Brett Hundley running the show. Since Hundley relieved an injured Rodgers in Week 6, Adams has totaled eight redzone targets. In other words, his redzone targets aren’t inflated by early-season work with Rodgers. Adams has hauled in three touchdown passes from Hundley and faces a Tampa Bay defense that’s allowed the fourth most touchdown receptions (14) to receivers this year.

Value/Sleeper
Josh Doctson (WAS) @ Cowboys
YTD Redzone Targets – 9 Week 12 Redzone Targets – 1
Doctson’s playing in tonight’s Thursday Night Football game, so make sure that if you’re planning to use him you get him in your lineup now. Having gotten that PSA out of the way, let’s get back to the numbers that earn him a spot in this week’s piece. Doctson four touchdown grabs on the year, and three have come in the redzone. He’s a favorite of Kirk Cousins when the Redskins are near the endzone, and he has at least one redzone target in three straight games and six of Washington’s last seven games. His frequent targets in the redzone bode well for him reaching paint against a Cowboys defense that’s tied for the second most receiving touchdowns (15) allowed to receivers.
Check out all the WR redzone targets here, WR redzone targets

Tight Ends

Top Option
Hunter Henry (LAC) vs. Browns
YTD Redzone Targets – 9 Week 12 Redzone Targets – 1
Jared Cook nipped at Henry’s heels for this spot, but ultimately I think the lack of other redzone threats for the Raiders will allow the Giants to key in on stopping Cook (not to mention the giving run defense of the Giants should prompt them to use the aforementioned Lynch more in the redzone).The Browns are tied with the Giants for the most touchdown receptions (nine) allowed to tight ends, and the second-year tight end has become a trusted target for Philip Rivers in the redzone. Henry’s nine redzone targets are tied for the ninth most at tight end, and he’s tallied one-third of his targets in the redzone over the last two weeks. Henry turned one of those three targets into a 3-yard score last week, and he’s scored an impressive 11 touchdowns in 26 games in the NFL.

Value/Sleeper
Cameron Brate (TB) @ Packers
YTD Redzone Targets – 10 Week 12 Redzone Targets – 1
At first blush, Brate probably looks like an odd pick. The Packers are tied with the Chargers and Chiefs for the fewest touchdown receptions (one) allowed to tight ends this year. Furthermore, Brate hasn’t scored a touchdown since Week 6 and has only one redzone target over the last five weeks. Brate’s skid has resulted in his salary toppling at daily sites, but he’s due for a pick-me-up with the return of Jameis Winston this weekend. Winston last appeared in a game in Week 9, when he exited early against the Saints. When Winston played, he regularly looked Brate’s way in the redzone, and even with the tight end’s dry spell playing with Ryan Fitzpatrick, Brate ranks tight for sixth at tight end in redzone targets. Take advantage of the discount on a few rosters at daily sites, and move him back into starting lineups (or scoop him out of the free-agent pool) in season-long leagues.
Check out all the TE redzone targets here, TE redzone targets