Redzone Report

The Red Zone Report takes a weekly look at red-zone usage and matchups to identify top options and sleepers for touchdowns in the given week of NFL action. This is a touchdown-centric piece, and the yardage outlook for the highlighted players isn’t a consideration.

Running Backs

Week 16 Touches Leaders

The Jimmy Garoppolo led 49ers moved the ball with ease against the vaunted defense of the Jaguars last week in San Francisco, and that led to both feature back Carlos Hyde and complementary back Matt Breida cracking the top 15 in redzone touches at running back. Breida scored a rushing touchdown, but it wasn’t on any of his four redzone touches. Hyde, on the other hand, did score his rushing touchdown on a 6-yard scamper. Hyde’s the better bet to score a redzone touchdown. Giovani Bernard is a surprise name near the top of the leaderboard, but he was thrust into primary back duties when Joe Mixon exited early with an injury. He turned one of his six redzone touches into a touchdown run, and he’s a strong fantasy option if Mixon’s ankle injury keeps him out in Cincinnati’s regular season finale.

Top Option
Dion Lewis (NE) vs. Jets
YTD Redzone Touches – 33 Week 16 Redzone Touches – 7
Lewis predictably absorbed a ton of redzone touches with both Rex Burkhead and James White inactive last week. Burkhead didn’t practice at all last week and was never really a threat to play last week. It seems likely he’ll be out again this week, and that bodes well for Lewis’ continued heavy usage. The Patriots are 16.5-point favorites with an implied team over/under total of 31 points, per Pinnacle. The game script, high projected total, likely heavy redzone workload and the matchup all line up favorably for Lewis reaching pay dirt. Lewis has at least one redzone touch in each of the Patriots games going back to Week 4, and he has multiple redzone touches eight times in that span. The Jets are tied for the 13th most rushing touchdowns allowed (nine) and have coughed up four receiving touchdowns to running backs, according to Pro-Football-Reference.

Value/Sleeper
Javorius Allen (BAL) vs. Bengals
YTD Redzone Touches – 37 Week 16 Redzone Touches – 4
Allen cracked last week’s redzone touches leaderboard at running back last week, and even with Alex Collins enjoying a breakout campaign and Danny Woodhead in the mix, “Buck” has carved out a significant role in scoring territory. Allen is riding an eight-game streak of touching the ball at least once in the redzone, and he’s touched the ball multiple times in the redzone in seven of those contests. The Ravens are 10-point home favorites, which bodes well for Baltimore leaning heavily on their backs, and a matchup with the Bengals is a plus, too. Cincinnati is tied for the 13th most rushing touchdowns allowed (nine) to running backs, and they’re tied for the 14th most receiving touchdowns allowed (three) to backs. Allen is capable of scoring as a runner or receiver with four rushing touchdowns and two receiving touchdowns on the year.

Wide Receivers

Week 16 Targets Leaders

Long-time touchdown-scoring-machine Eric Decker had a renaissance contest with three redzone targets last week, but he didn’t turn any of them into touchdowns last week. His four redzone targets in the last two weeks combined represent half of his season total, and a matchup with the Jaguars renders him useless from a fantasy perspective this week. Larry Fitzgerald tied for the Week 16 lead in redzone targets at wide receiver, thus, he didn’t skip a beat as the unquestioned No. 1 option in Arizona’s passing attack with Drew Stanton back under center. Josh Doctson tied Fitz for the Week 16 lead, and he’s been the apple of Kirk Cousins’ eye in the redzone. Kendrick Bourne and Trent Taylor of the 49ers, like the aforementioned backfield duo of Hyde and Breida, benefited from Jimmy G’s continued excellence last week. However, Garoppolo’s willingness to spread the ball around as opposed to locking in on a top option makes it tough to trust anyone as a reliable source of touchdown-scoring upside.

Top Option
DeAndre Hopkins (HOU) @ Colts
YTD Redzone Targets – 19 Week 16 Redzone Targets – 1
Nuk was only targeted once in the redzone last week, but he made the most of it with one hell of a one-handed, juggling touchdown grab. His 19 redzone targets this season are the ninth most among receivers. The Colts are tied for the 14th most touchdown receptions allowed (13) to receivers this year.

Value/Sleeper
Kenny Golladay (DET) vs. Packers
YTD Redzone Targets – 5 Week 16 Redzone Targets – 1
Golladay generated some buzz in the preseason, but he hasn’t had a huge rookie season. He has, however, received a redzone target in back-to-back games, and he’s seen a sharp increase in playing time down the stretch. The rookie wideout has hauled in two of his five redzone targets this year, and he’s turned one of those redzone receptions into a touchdown. A matchup with the injury-ravaged secondary of the Packers emboldens me to roll the dice on Golladay this week. Green Bay’s 18 touchdown receptions permitted to receivers this season is tied for the second most.

Tight Ends

Week 16 Targets Leaders

If you’re scratching your head reading some of the names at the top of the Week 16 redzone target leaderboard for tight end — I’m looking at you, James O’Shaughnessy, Demetrius Harris, A.J. Derby and Nick Boyle — you’re not alone. Charles Clay tied for O’Shaughnessy for the redzone target lead at the position last week, but Clay’s a less surprising name as one of Buffalo’s top options in their passing attack. Clay is a solid touchdown-streaming or touchdown-chasing daily selection against a Dolphins defense this week that’s tied for the third most touchdown receptions allowed (nine) to tight ends this year.

Top Option
Antonio Gates (LAC) vs. Raiders
YTD Redzone Targets – 10 Week 16 Redzone Targets – 1
Gates stepped up as the top tight end for the Chargers last week, and he turned his lone redzone target into a 3-yard TD reception. Gates is nearing the end of the line, but he’s had a nose for the endzone throughout his career and has 114 touchdown grabs in 219 games played. He’s scored a touchdown in back-to-back games, and he has incredible rapport with Philip Rivers that they’ve developed playing together for more than a decade. The Raiders have only allowed five touchdown receptions to tight ends this year, a total that’s tied for just the 17th most allowed to the position in 2017. However, no one is going to confuse them for a tough matchup for tight ends as they’ve allowed the most receiving yards (1,043) and are tied for the most receptions allowed (87) to them this year. The middle-of-the-pack touchdown total allowed to tight ends looks like a clear outlier from their other numbers, so I’d call this a plus matchup for reaching pay dirt for Gates.

Value/Sleeper
George Kittle (SF) @ Rams
YTD Redzone Targets – 16 Week 16 Redzone Targets – 1
If you’ve been following this piece, you shouldn’t be shocked to see Kittle’s name once again appear in this section. Last week, he scored on an 8-yard reception. He’s also stood out as one of Garoppolo’s favorite redzone targets. Since Garoppolo took over as the starter for the 49ers in Week 13, Kittle has tallied six redzone targets. He’s been targeted at least once in all four of Jimmy G’s starts, and he’s been targeted more than once in two of those contests. The rookie tight end’s opponent this week, the Rams, are tied for the sixth most touchdown receptions allowed (eight) to tight ends this year.

Post
Josh is a life-long fan of sports and a nearly 20-year veteran of season-long fantasy leagues. He's fallen head over heels for daily fantasy as well. Josh loves statistics and better understanding the sports he follows, and these passions drive his insatiable desire to immerse himself in reading about, watching and writing about the sports he loves.

Hot NFL Stories