Targets and Touches Report
Each week of the NFL season, we will be highlighting some players who have seen an increase in targets and/or touches. We will be diving deep to find players whose offensive roles are trending upward in order to find high floor and high upside plays for your DFS lineups each week.
Contents
Wide Receivers
Marquise Goodwin, San Francisco 49ers
AVG Targets/Game: 6.3
AVG Receptions/Game: 3.1
Catch%: 50
Targets in Week 14: 12
Catches in Week 14: 6
DraftKings Salary: $6,000
FanDuel Salary: $6,600
Goodwin has been one of the few bright spots for the 3-10 49ers, particularly the last four weeks. Over that span, he has seen a total of 28 targets, and parlayed those opportunities into 366 yards and a score (91.5 YPG). While his catch rate isn’t very good by any stretch of the imagination, (50%), most of that can be attributed to the 49ers (lack of) offense. San Francisco ranks 27th in the NFL with just 17.5 PPG.
The biggest change in San Fran of late has been the addition of Jimmy Garoppolo, who has posted very solid numbers over his first two starts (627 yards, 1 TD). Since he has taken over the starting role, Goodwin has posted lines of 8-99 (8 targets) and 6-106 (12 targets).
With a matchup on the horizon against a Titans defense that Football Outsiders (FO) ranks 23rd against the pass, Goodwin could once again be in line for a solid output, despite his unfortunate position in one of the NFL’s worst offenses. With that said, this is a team that is trending in the right direction, as they are coming off of three wins in their last four contests after starting the season 0-9.
Another encouraging sign is that Goodwin has dominated the looks among the 49ers receiving corps, as Trent Taylor’s six targets in Week 13 were second on the team to his eight. In Week 14, he absolutely dominated the looks from Jimmy G, as his 12 targets were SIX times as many as any other WR on the team. While we can’t expect that big of a gap each week, it seems safe to assume that Goodwin will continue to be the favorite target of Garoppolo’s after averaging 10 targets per game during his two starts.
Roger Lewis, New York Giants
AVG Targets/Game: 4.2
AVG Receptions/Game: 2.3
Catch%: 54.9
Targets in Week 14: 11
Catches in Week 14: 7
DraftKings Salary: $3,000
FanDuel Salary: $5,400
Another crappy team, another wideout who has seen an increase in looks. Over the last three weeks, Lewis has seen a total of 21 targets (7 per game), but has seen 18 of those in the two games Eli Manning has started (9 per game).
While his production has left plenty to be desired (50+ yards just twice in 2017), Lewis seems to have a decent floor with (the other) Manning under center. This week’s game against Philly (5th vs pass, per FO) is certainly a tough one, and the sledding doesn’t get much easier against the Cardinals (8th) and Redskins (11th) the following weeks.
However, finding a WR at or near minimum who is seeing nearly 10 targets per game is rare, and the next few weeks could see Lewis paying off a dirt-cheap salary across the industry, despite some tough matchups. The Giants will likely (as always) be playing catch-up, which bodes well for Lewis.
The Giants are above only Cleveland (15.2) with their 15.3 PPG this season, and things don’t look likely to improve on that end anytime soon. However, cheap volume can be a source of value in DFS, and while risky, opportunity could start to pay some dividends for the former BGSU standout, who just so happened to score 23 touchdowns across just two seasons with the Falcons during his college career.
Check out a full list of WR targets here, WR Targets
Running Backs
Theo Riddick, Detroit Lions
AVG Targets/Game: 4.7
AVG Receptions/Game: 3.5
Catch%: 73.8
Targets in Week 14: 10
Catches in Week 14: 6
DraftKings Salary: $5,200
FanDuel Salary: $6,100
Riddick led all RBs with 10 targets in Week 13, and although game script led to him being featured in that contest, he still has the potential to meet and exceed value. Over the last two weeks, Riddick has now seen 15 total targets, hauling in 11 of them for 105 yards.
For a Lions team that has allowed the most PPG over the last three weeks (31.7), Riddick could be featured piece in the offense moving forward for a team that still has playoff aspirations. He has now eclipsed the 40-yard mark through the air five times, and has been featured in the Red Zone over the last two weeks, finding the end zone three times on the ground over that span.
The Lions have been right around the league average with 19.5% of passing targets to RB this season. Riddick has dominated the looks, as his 61 total targets on the season are more than double that of the next RB, Ameer Abdullah, who has just 26.
The Lions’ next opponent, the Bears, have been tough against pass-catching backs, allowing just 38 YPG on the season, so this week may not the ideal spot to deploy Riddick. However, when you factor in the number of carries Riddick has seen over the last two weeks (19), he looks like a mighty fine play. That number of carries represents nearly 30% of his total carries on the season…and in a span of just two weeks.
After Ameer Abdullah was speculated to be a healthy scratch in Week 13 due to “performance-related issues”, we may just being witnessing a changing of the guard in Detroit. Riddick could become a riskier option if Abdullah returns to his pre-injury role, but I’ll roll the dice with him as the likely featured back.
Rod Smith, Dallas Cowboys
AVG Targets/Game: 1.3
AVG Receptions/Game: 1
Catch%: 76.5
Targets in Week 14: 5
Catches in Week 14: 5
DraftKings Salary: $4,500
FanDuel Salary: $5,800
Recency bias could lead to some high ownership for Smith this week, as he is coming off of a monster outing against the Giants (6-47-1 rushing an 5-113-1 rushing). He has now scored in three consecutive games, but with Ezekiel Elliot’s return on the horizon, his window of opportunity looks to be coming to an end.
With that said, he draws yet another exploitable matchup this week against Oakland, who ranks 21st against the run and 27th against pass-catching backs this season, per FO. Smith has still taken a back seat to Alfred Morris as far as being the feature back goes, but he has shown a lot more upside, especially in the passing game.
Over the last three weeks, Smith has seen less Red Zone carries than Morris (12-8), but he has found the end zone on three attempts, compared to just one for Morris. At this point, he looks to be the player to own in GPPs until Zeke returns.
As far as the passing game goes, last week’s game looks to be more of an outlier, as the Cowboys have the second-lowest percentage of RB targets this season at just 13.7. Temper your expectations as far as pass-catching upside goes, but if there were ever a spot for Smith to smash one more time, a matchup with the Raiders is the one. Take advantage for one more week until the Cowboys savior returns.
Check out the full list of RB touches here, RB Touches
Tight Ends
O.J. Howard, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
AVG Targets/Game: 2.9
AVG Receptions/Game: 1.9
Catch%: 65.8
Targets in Week 13: 6
Catches in Week 13: 4
DraftKings Salary: $3,000
FanDuel Salary: $5,200
Although he splits time with Cameron Brate, Howard has actually dominated the snaps over the last three weeks with 53, 55, 56, whileBrate has seen just 34, 32, and 25. Over that span, Howard has seen 12 targets to Brate’s 9, but there is plenty to go around for a Tampa Bay team that targets TEs on 22.3% of passing plays.
Howard has shown plenty of upside also, having found the end zone five times, including a pair of scores over the last four weeks. Tampa Bay is yet another team that struggles to put up points (20.3 PPG), but they have targeted a TE 19 times in the Red Zone this season.
While Howard has seen just six of those 19 targets, he has been much more efficient than Brate in that department, catching 66.7% (4 of 6) of his targets, while Brate has converted just 38.46% (5 of 13).
His target share seems to fluctuate from week to week, but he is consistently seeing a lot of playing time in the Tampa Bay offense. He makes for a risky option, but he has remained fairly consistent of late, with 50+ yards in three of his last four contests. Give him a look in GPPs this week against an Atlanta team that FO ranks 16th against the TE position.
Check out the full list of TE targets here, TE Targets