Nolan Arenado Fantasy Baseball Outlook & Value 2020

Nolan Arenado has been one of the most consistent fantasy options over the past five years. You will consistently get your 100+ runs, 110+ RBI, and 35+ home runs. Playing half of his games in Coors certainly helps, and while there are road woes for these Rockies names, their overall numbers are always among the best. The Colorado Rockies are a talented group of names, and that has helped Arenado keep this consistent upside. Looking at 2020, it should be more of the same. While he voiced his frustration with the ownership, thankfully he has remained in Colorado from a fantasy standpoint. The ADP has dropped just a tad in comparison to the last few years, mainly because we have seen Yelich and Acuna come up and push some names down. Gerrit Cole as well. Arenado is going at the end of the first round.

Last Three Years Stats

YearAgeGPAABRH2B3BHRRBISBBBBAOBPSLG
201726159680606100187437371303620.3090.3730.586
201827156673590104175382381102730.2970.3740.561
201928155662588102185312411183620.3150.3790.583

Third base is a loaded position, and there is a lot of competition with names like Alex Bregman, Jose Ramirez, and Anthony Rendon. Not many are matching the production that Nolan Arenado has brought over the past three seasons. He is also consistently healthy, which is something to note as well. Arenado only ranks second to Bregman in runs, sitting at 306. Arenado is far and above in the RBI department, ranking first with 358. The next closest is Rendon at 318. Also to nobody’s surprise, he leads the position in home runs during this span with 116. He has a .307/.375 OBP/.577 slashing line to also go along with it. Arenado is also not a one trick pony, as he is one of the games best in the defensive department.

2020 Fantasy Projections

ADPAuction $PAABH2B3BHRRRBISBAVG
13.33$35675.2599.0190.838.93.139.9104.0124.63.20.319

Nolan Arenado has been a fantasy god, as the tweet above indicates. It also shows how good Paul Goldschmidt has been as well. To produce on such a consistent level, especially with these numbers is tough to find. You know what you are getting, and projections show that his numbers will be much more of the same. You could certainly make the case for more power numbers, but hard to see him topping the rest of his projected stats. That isn’t a bad thing either. Look for another big year from the Rockies third baseman.

Floor

You are drafting Nolan Arenado this high because of his floor. He regularly hits 40+ home runs, and a floor is around 35-38. He has been over 100_ runs in four straight seasons, and over 110 RBI in five straight. Arenado is also not a big strikeout bat, and has hit over .290 in four straight seasons. It is hard to argue that his floor might be one of the best in baseball.

Ceiling

For what has been one of the top fantasy bats over the last few years, hard to project Arenado for anything higher than what he has done. He has been a 100+ run bat in four straight seasons, and is consistently over 110 RBI as well. Arenado certainly could get to a 45-50 home run mark in a good season, which he hasn’t done in his career. This would require a few more homers on the road. He also could get to 130+ RBI which we saw him do from 2015-2017. A .300+ average season, 45+ HR, and 130+ RBI is certainly his ceiling, although I’d pencil him in for more numbers like 2018-2019.

Auction/Draft Value

There are quite a few options at the end of a 12-man draft, and several names are averaging an 11.5 ADP. One is Nolan Arenado, and then you have his teammate Trevor Story. As far as positional depth, third base is loaded. Arenado is a safe bat, and that is what you are drafting him for, however there are names a round later with his power upside. It’s not that I am not thrilled with Areando, as he is a consistent option in all areas but stolen bases. If there were a lack of third base options, I would be making it a priority to get him, it’s just there are so many at this position so I am not kicking myself if I don’t land him in drafts. The one positive is that he is going towards the end of the first round, and you can make a very sweet one-two start with your lineups in snake drafts with the turnaround. So this is a plus.

Colorado Rockies Offense

The Rockies offense is one to struggle, averaging 4.1 runs per game on the road last season. They averaged 6.1 at home, resulting in the 9th most overall runs per baseball. Luckily these names do have 81 games at home, otherwise we would not be drafting them so highly. Arenado is projected to hit third in a very good front half of the lineup, and will have that big upside again in the RBI department. He will also have the chance for 100+ runs. Coors is a strong park for hitters, and outside of home runs, it ranked first in park factors for any right-handed bats. For home runs, they ranked third.

Statcast Corner

Screen Shot 2020 03 02 at 10.55.29 PMWeirdly Nolan Arenado doesn’t rank as well in this department as others, which isn’t something to weigh in fantasy baseball. It is just interesting. He was only in the 58th percentile in exit velocity, and 40th percentile in hard-contact. He had above average expected stats, but also out-performed his expected stats by quite a bit. Arenado has been in the top 8% of the league in wOBA since 2015, and has been over .390 in each of the last three seasons.

Looking at 2019, Arenado over-performed when facing breaking balls, hitting .283 with a .220 xBA. He did have 40 barrels last season, which ranked 52nd in the bigs. Average exit velocity was below 90, which put him 107th in the league. He has actually never been a big exit velocity guy, and Coors has certainly helped his upside over the past few years. Moving out of Coors would have certainly put a damper on his fantasy upside.

  
Jason Guilbault has been writing and podcasting in the fantasy sports world for over five years. You can find his work at Daily Fantasy Cafe. He is an avid Tottenham fan, and follows the Boston sports teams. When he isn’t diving into stats, he is enjoying the outdoors or down at the local brewery.

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